House Republican's death brings GOP majority near its breaking point

California Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa has died at the age of 65, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Tuesday, praising LaMalfa as a “fierce … fighCalifornia Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa has died at the age of 65, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Tuesday, praising LaMalfa as a “fierce … fighter for his state’s vast natural resources and beauty.”

LaMalfa’s sudden and unexpected death is not only a tragedy for the GOP, but is about to become a major headache for Johnson and Republican leaders, as it brings the GOP's House majority down to just 218 seats—the absolute bare minimum for a majority in the 435-member body.

The GOP's 220-seat majority had already narrowed down to 219, after Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation went into effect on Monday. A special election will be held before the midterms for her seat, with more than 20 candidates already declaring their intention to run. But with LaMalfa’s unexpected vacancy, that means Johnson can lose just two votes and still pass legislation, assuming all members are present.

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Even more concerning for Johnson now is that another one of his members, 80-year-old Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN), is currently hospitalized after a car accident over the holiday recess, meaning that for the time being he will be unable to vote, making Johnson’s majority even narrower.

With multiple federal government agencies set to run out of money again on Jan. 30, that gives Johnson literally zero room for error to pass a spending bill or else the government will once again go into shutdown mode.

"House Republican attendance is a massive, massive problem right now," Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman wrote in a post on X.

As for LaMalfa's seat, a special election will be held to fill the vacancy. 

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has the power to call the election and determine the date it will be held. It's unclear whether Newsom will fight fire with fire and call the special election for the latest date he is allowed, ensuring the seat remains vacant for as long as possible under the law—which at this point appears to be concurrent with California’s regular 2026 elections.

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That's exactly what Republicans Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have done, holding safe Democratic seats open for months in order to give Johnson more breathing room with his narrow majority. 

As it's currently drawn, LaMalfa's seat is likely to remain in Republican hands in a special election.

However, following the passage of Proposition 50 by overwhelming margins—which suspended the state's independent redistricting commission to allow the Democratic-controlled Legislature to redraw congressional lines—LaMalfa's seat is going to become safely blue. That means whichever Republican wins it will likely spend very little time in Congress.

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