** Exclusive Analysis on the Criminal Implications of Maduro’s Arrest
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Dear Reader,

The January 3 arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States on Venezuelan soil made headlines worldwide and reignited debates over geopolitics, international law, and possible regime-change scenarios. Yet the potential implications for organized crime and drug trafficking ([link removed]) — the very arguments President Donald Trump cited to justify increased military action ([link removed]) in the region — have largely been sidelined.

At InSight Crime, we have spent more than 15 years investigating the evolution of organized crime in Venezuela, as well as the Maduro government’s role in shielding criminal groups ([link removed]) and illicit economies. We are closely monitoring developments and will continue to analyze the possible repercussions ([link removed]) of this historic event, both for Venezuela’s underworld and for criminal dynamics across the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean.


** The Immediate Effects
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At first glance, the Chavista regime’s ties to organized crime are unlikely to change in any substantial way, given that much of the Venezuelan state apparatus remains intact. That said, the hybrid system of criminal governance ([link removed]) established under Maduro could evolve into a more clandestine model.
READ OUR ANALYSIS ([link removed])
RELATED CRIMINAL PROFILES ([link removed])
VENEZUELA COVERAGE ([link removed])

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Meanwhile, criminal structures such as the Cartel of the Suns ([link removed]) , the National Liberation Army ([link removed]) (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), and the armed colectivos ([link removed]) may also undergo a process of reorganization, accompanied by greater efforts to protect their revenue streams.

To learn more about the implications of this event, as well as other key shifts from the past decade in Latin America’s criminal landscape, we invite you to make a donation to join our donor-exclusive event on January 9, where co-directors Jeremy McDermott and Steven Dudley and editors Mike LaSusa and Deborah Bonello will discuss the criminal scenarios set to shape 2026.
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MORE INFORMATION ([link removed])

Sincerely,

The InSight Crime team
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InSight Crime is sponsored by:
American University ([link removed])
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency ([link removed])

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