After Trump Hits Venezuela, Will China Invade Taiwan?

by Gordon G. Chang • January 6, 2026 at 5:00 am

China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping's only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows — or should know — that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.
Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him.... Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.
The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression — Japan and the Philippines — and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan. As a practical matter, once one country in America's treaty network gets attacked, all countries in the network end up fighting.

President Donald Trump's stunning moves against Venezuela on January 3 are sparking concerns that China may soon move against Taiwan. Pictured: China's Shandong aircraft carrier arrives in Hong Kong on July 3, 2025. (Photo by Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump's stunning moves against Venezuela on January 3 are sparking concerns that China may soon move against Taiwan.

Trump on December 16 imposed a "total and complete blockade" on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, and some expressed their belief that his actions could make it easier for China to impose similar measures on Taiwan, which China claims as its own.

"If the U.S. blockades to change political outcomes in Venezuela, China can justify coercive measures against Taiwan on so-called security grounds," Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Reuters. "The legal contexts differ, but the propaganda opening is real."

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The Iranian Uprising: The Time to Plan for This Potential Regional Conflict Is Before the Boats Leave Qeshm

by Sara Al Nuaimi • January 6, 2026 at 4:00 am

Iran... will almost certainly retaliate over what it sees as the UAE helping its citizens escape.
If Iran's current instability deepens into a full crisis, Iranians may attempt these crossings by boat. The proximity of Iran to the UAE makes it virtually inevitable.
Once boatloads of people fleeing Iran appear in UAE waters, the sequence becomes predictable. Media coverage will be immediate and global. The UAE will accept refugees. Iran -- regardless of UAE intentions -- will see this as the UAE helping their citizens escape during a national emergency, and most probably retaliate.

Iran partially controls the powerful pressure point, the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transits, mostly to Europe and Asia. Iran has threatened this chokepoint during conflicts far less severe than a refugee crisis. A regime facing collapse may likely use every means of leverage available -- and Iran's most powerful lever is the Strait of Hormuz. Pictured: Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, on January 15, 2011. (Photo by Marwan Naamani/AFP via Getty Images)

On December 29, protests erupted among shopkeepers in Tehran, Zanjan, and Hamadan -- all clustered in Iran's north and west. Then came Qeshm, isolated on the southern coast.

That location matters. Qeshm Island sits just 60 kilometers across the Strait of Hormuz from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That is roughly the distance from Manhattan to Philadelphia, and far shorter than most successful Mediterranean crossings from Syria to Europe.

If Iran's current instability deepens into a full crisis, Iranians may well attempt these crossings by boat. The proximity of Iran to the UAE makes it virtually inevitable.

Once boatloads of people fleeing Iran appear in UAE waters, the sequence becomes predictable. Media coverage will be immediate and global. The UAE will accept refugees. Iran -- regardless of UAE intentions -- will see this as the UAE helping their citizens escape during a national emergency, and most probably retaliate.

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