Driven largely by a rise in PUA claims by the self-employed, initial claims continued spiking in California for the week of July 18 while easing in the rest of the country. Initial claims for the regular UI program were up 3% to 292,693, while initial PUA claims were up 29% to 163,525.

For the US as a whole, the seasonally adjusted numbers for the regular UI program are being reported as an increase of 8% to 1,416,000. However, in the current circumstances the effects coming from the economic closures overwhelm any seasonal factors, and the unadjusted numbers are a better measure of what is actually going on in the streets. The standard deviation of the weekly data in the closer to normal results for 2019 was 43,171; in the COVID period beginning the week of March 21, it jumped 36 times to 1.6 million. In California, the increase the standard deviation at 46 times has been even higher. The unadjusted numbers for the US in fact showed a large drop of 9% to 1,370,970, with initial PUA claims rising only 2% to 974,999.

Comparing the claims trajectories to the week of May 9 (the week following the initial spike in PUA claims), total initial claims in California (regular UI plus PUA) were up 31% over this period, while the total was down 34% for the rest of the US. This data again indicates how much more severe the economic downturn has been in California, along with the challenges this situation presents for the ability of the state to move quickly through the upcoming recovery period.

Combining the initial claims numbers with the continuing claims data, 5.44 million California workers were receiving or applying for unemployment insurance last week, up 10% from the week before. This number, however, does not include initial and continuing claims for PEUC and other much smaller benefit programs.

Although not included in the figures below, claims under the new Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program continue to show significant numbers. This new category allows an additional 13 weeks of coverage for persons who have exhausted their regular benefits, including eligibility for the additional $600 a week. California claims were essentially unchanged at 228,541 or 24% of total claims nationally.

In the updated data posted by EDD, WARN Act notices effective March through the end of the year covered 526,614 workers. The rate of permanent layoffs was up slightly to 15.6% of all reported layoffs, but remains elevated from the results since March. As indicated in previous reports, the WARN Act notices do not cover all layoffs, but are useful for indicating the geographic distribution of layoffs and the share covered by business closures.