All movements rely on a certain amount of shared mythology. These foundational stories bind participants together and help them make sense of a complex world. At their best, they emphasize truths of universal appeal. At their most dangerous, they perpetuate lies that demonize others.

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December 23, 2025

All movements rely on a certain amount of shared mythology. These foundational stories bind participants together and help them make sense of a complex world. At their best, they emphasize truths of universal appeal. At their most dangerous, they perpetuate lies that demonize others.

Donald Trump may be MAGA’s political leader, but the person who best understands the psychological needs of the movement is Steve Bannon. A former investment banker, movie producer and media executive, Bannon is an excellent storyteller. He can effortlessly discuss politics with The New York Times or with a right-wing conspiracist.

Bannon has spent years developing and refining the mythology of the MAGA movement. His ability to weave the lies and contradictions of the Trump era into a coherent narrative makes him one of the most powerful figures on the right.

He understands which parts of MAGA are optional and which are mandatory — what can be transgressed without consequence and what must be policed for strict adherence. When Bannon calls something foundational to MAGA, everyone in the movement knows there is no room for questioning or disagreement.

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On Friday, Bannon took to the stage at a Turning Point USA event and made explicit what we already knew: Election denialism is foundational to MAGA.

I have long argued that there is no Trumpism without the Big Lie. The highest form of heresy within the movement is not a policy dispute like supporting immigration reform or opposing tariffs — it is acknowledging that Joe Biden was elected president in 2020.

In Bannon’s words: “We won the 2020 election. If you don’t believe that, you don’t believe a foundational element of the MAGA movement.”

This explains why Trump’s nominees consistently refuse to say that Biden won the 2020 election during their confirmation hearings. If the third rail of politics is social security, the third rail of MAGA is the Big Lie. The closest they are allowed to come to acknowledging the truth is saying that Biden was “certified” and “served” as president.

During Bannon’s appearance at Turning Point USA, his explanation for why election denialism is “foundational” to the movement was the most instructive. In his telling, there have been eight national elections in the past 10 years, and MAGA has won seven of them. Bannon’s math requires treating the Republican presidential primaries in 2016, 2020 and 2024 as separate from the general elections held in those years.

He argues that Trump and MAGA defeated the GOP establishment in the 2016 primaries and Hillary Clinton in the general election — counting as two wins. He also claims two victories in 2024.

He further credits Trump and MAGA for the 2022 midterms, which is debatable for several reasons. While Republicans narrowly gained control of the House, they vastly underperformed expectations, and most political observers believe Trump was a liability that year. Nevertheless, Bannon counts it as a win.

Interestingly, the only loss Bannon accepts as part of MAGA mythology is the 2018 midterm congressional elections. He is not entirely clear about why this happened, other than to say, “We lost the ’18 midterms because people were leaning on their rakes.” Even this defeat is folded into the mythology, serving as the exception that proves the rule: When the stakes are highest, MAGA always wins.

The existential problem Bannon faces, however, is Trump’s defeat in 2020. It is one thing to argue that MAGA was inattentive during the 2018 midterms, when Trump was not on the ballot. It is quite another to accept that Trump himself lost a high-turnout presidential reelection campaign.

If Trump lost a free and fair election in 2020, it undermines his aura of invincibility, his ability to beat the odds, and MAGA’s claim to electoral ascendancy. It casts doubt not only on the past, but on the future.

That is why it is essential to MAGA’s mythology that Trump won the 2020 presidential election — and why election denialism is foundational.

The problem for Bannon and MAGA, of course, is what John Adams observed long ago: “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”

The fact is that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. He prevailed in a high-turnout contest and secured majorities in both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

Trump cannot accept this because of his ego. Bannon cannot accept it because it damages the movement.

As a result, they will continue to spread lies about the 2020 election and deploy every resource at their disposal to relitigate it. When those efforts fail, they will point to increasingly bizarre conspiracies.

More importantly, they cannot tolerate any additional exceptions. If elections are counted traditionally, MAGA has won only two national elections in the past decade — 2016 and 2024 — and lost three, not including the off-year losses suffered in 2025.

MAGA’s mythology cannot withstand a sweeping defeat in 2026. It certainly cannot survive back-to-back losses in 2026 and 2028.

If election denialism is MAGA’s foundational belief, voter suppression and election subversion are its most exalted tactics. We are already seeing clear signs that the movement is preparing for both in the coming year.

Those of us who fight for free and fair elections must be clear-eyed about the risks and threats ahead. If we are to defeat MAGA and protect democracy, we cannot rest on past victories or indulge in our own wishful thinking.

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