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While still nowhere near full recovery levels, the June job and labor force numbers overall show a substantial uptick from the prior months. Rather than a cause of celebration, they instead represent a cautionary tale for the long recovery period that still lies ahead.
The June numbers as with all these reports are based on surveys done during the week of the 12th in each month. Consequently, the June results cover about a month’s worth of reopenings that took place prior to the recently ordered reclosings.
The five weeks of reopening captured in the June numbers restored only 20% of the employment and 24% of the jobs lost through May. The job losses beginning in March were sharp, deep, and immediate. The June numbers instead suggest that recovery, once it finally does take hold, will be cautious and—as the events of early July show—fragile. These numbers also show California remains well behind the rest of the nation economically—the June numbers show the US as a whole regaining 35% of lost employment and 39% of lost jobs.
A part of this outcome is to be expected. Jobs and employment will expand as household incomes, consumer confidence, and sales return to their prior levels. This process will take time and is reflected in most of the projections now anticipating a “swoosh” or similar pattern in the forthcoming recovery.
But the longer the closings, the more the structural damage restricting the ability of the state’s economy to recover.
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