Didn't work in 1912, 1932, 1952, 1968, 1980 or 1992                                                 
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Aug. 27, 2019

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Primary challengers of sitting presidents never win, even strong ones, and neither does their party
Any Republican supporting a primary challenge against President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020, if it is successful or even if it just hampers the primary process, is virtually guaranteeing the next president will be a Democrat who will nominate the next Supreme Court and sign laws like the Green New Deal, socialized medicine and universal income. Every single one of the one-term presidents of the 20th Century — William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — all faced strong primary challenges. Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson both withdrew their candidacies from the elections of 1952 and 1968 respectively in the face of a strong primary challengers. In every one of these instances, the opposition party won. 100 percent of the time, every single time. All of which make such a primary challenge of Trump ill-advised, that is, if Republicans are in the business of winning elections.

Cartoon: Taking Sides
Can Democrats and Never Trumpers get past Orange Man Bad and see who they are siding with?

Video: Trump's sanctions and tariffs against China will likely stay in place even after Trump leaves office
With these new sanctions, the likelihood is that Trump has already permanently shifted America’s footing to take a harder line on China, a policy his successor whether in 2021 or 2024 will be compelled to continue. For better or for worse, that is Trump’s legacy.

No, Generation Z is not less patriotic or religious
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll is being trumpeted by the mainstream media as proof that Generation Z is less patriotic and less religious than older generations. The pollsters asked age groups to rank how important vague, entirely subjective terms like ‘patriotism’ and ‘religion’ are to Americans, and concluded that young people are unpatriotic and apathetic about faith. While throwing a collection of key words at a group and asking them to rank them in importance generates clickbait headlines for left-leaning media, it isn’t particularly insightful or relevant when trying to understand the views of young Americans. Market Research Foundation conducted an in-depth survey of Generation Z this spring, and gathered nuanced responses to specific policy goals that we believe are more useful than asking young people to react to politically-loaded key words.

U.S. agreement with Japan on corn obviates any need to revisit ethanol refining waivers
Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning: “A U.S. trade agreement with Japan is long overdue and comes at a critical strategic moment, demonstrating that with long-standing allies there are alternatives to China to be developed. In addition, thanks to Japan's agreement to purchase $7 billion of U.S. agricultural products, mainly corn, the deal obviates any worries from farm states about a limited number of fuel refiners obtaining waivers from mixing ethanol into gasoline. Building the U.S. relationship with Japan is a strategic imperative and here Trump is showing that it can get done on a bilateral basis to advance U.S. interests and pave the way for a longer term deal.”

Washington Times: China suspected of flooding U.S. with students to access sensitive programs
“America’s plan to catch China in the race to deploy super-fast hypersonic weapons may begin in college classrooms. Academic leaders, lawmakers, and military and intelligence officials say Washington needs to take a harder look at the number of Chinese who come to the U.S. to study engineering, aeronautics, astronautics, quantum mechanics and other fields that have direct connections to national security. The massive influx of Chinese students in recent years, they say, has led directly to Beijing’s advantage in the development of hypersonics and other cutting-edge technology — though U.S. officials say privately that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to track individual cases of students gaining specific insights in a given area and then taking that knowledge back home.”


Primary challengers of sitting presidents never win, even strong ones, and neither does their party

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By Robert Romano

Any Republican supporting a primary challenge against President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020, if it is successful or even if it just hampers the primary process, is virtually guaranteeing the next president will be a Democrat.

And with it, Democrats will once again have all the trappings of the presidency, including nominating the next Supreme Court justices, signing laws and conducting foreign relations.

In modern U.S. history of presidential elections since the nation’s first political primaries in 1912, no sitting president has ever been denied his party’s nomination at a nominating convention whilst standing for reelection. 2020 will be no different, wherein the Republican nominee for president will almost certainly be Donald Trump once again.

Here’s another feature of those contests: Every single one of the one-term presidents of the 20th Century — William Howard Taft in 1912, Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 — all faced strong primary challenges.

Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson both withdrew their candidacies from the elections of 1952 and 1968 respectively in the face of a strong primary challengers. Truman lost the 1952 New Hampshire primary and Johnson barely won the 1968 New Hampshire primary. One can quibble about whether these count as being ousted or not but they were not on the ballots at the conventions because they were not contesting the conventions at that point. They forfeited. Both conventions ended up being brokered, with none of the prime vote getters in the primaries obtaining the nomination.

Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon both won the contests for open seats vacated by the incumbent presidents in 1952 and 1968, respectively.

As for the other one-termers, Taft was defeated by Woodrow Wilson after gaining fewer votes than Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 primaries, Herbert Hoover was defeated by Franklin Roosevelt after gaining fewer votes than Joseph France in the 1932 primaries, Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter after beating Ronald Reagan in the contested 1976 primaries, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan after beating Ted Kennedy in the contested 1980 primaries and George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton after beating Pat Buchanan in the contested 1992 primaries.

In every one of these instances, the opposition party won. 100 percent of the time, every single time. It’s a great way to lose.

Moreover, the years there were significant primary challenges and the one-term president was ousted, the opposition party fared very well in down-ballot congressional races. In 1912, 1932, 1976 and 1992, Democrats won the trifecta of the presidency, the House and Senate. In 1952, Republicans won the presidency, House and Senate, and in 1980, Republicans won the presidency and the Senate, and picked up seats in the House. The outlier is 1968, where Republicans won the presidency but only made gains in the House and Senate.

Now, not all primary challenges are fatal. Oftentimes, they are inconsequential insofar as incumbents face no-name challengers on the ballot but almost nobody votes for them. And with 86 percent approval among Republicans for example in the latest Politico tracking poll, Trump might not have much to worry about at the moment. So, there could be a challenge and perhaps Trump simply wipes the floor with them in the primary while Democrats have a close primary and so Trump actually goes on to win the general election with momentum.

That’s the lesson of modern political history. Incumbent presidents who run relatively unopposed for their party’s nomination tend to get reelected. Period.

Making such a gambit an unnecessary risk for the GOP, even if they were worried about this or that poll, which at 15 months out from the election are meaningless at this stage of the game. The bottom line is if Republicans want to hold the White House and not suffer damage in congressional races, Trump is their best bet.

This where true believers will contend with predictable hand wavery like the loser at the casino, “But this time is different!”  

No, it’s not.

When it comes to 2020, whether talking about Joe Walsh or William Weld or whoever else foolishly tosses their hats in the ring on the Republican side, likely all a primary challenge would do is fail and potentially weaken the incumbent Trump. That will increase the odds dramatically Democrats win the next election and choose the next Supreme Court justices, probably would have down-ballot implications as well, winning Congress and passing the Green New Deal, socialized medicine, universal income and the rest of their political program.

All of which make such a primary challenge of Trump ill-advised, that is, if Republicans are in the business of winning elections.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.


Cartoon: Taking Sides

By A.F. Branco

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Click here for a higher resolution version.


No, Generation Z is not less patriotic or religious

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By Bill Wilson

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll is being trumpeted by the mainstream media as proof that Generation Z is less patriotic and less religious than older generations. The pollsters asked age groups to rank how important vague, entirely subjective terms like ‘patriotism’ and ‘religion’ are to Americans, and concluded that young people are unpatriotic and apathetic about faith. While throwing a collection of key words at a group and asking them to rank them in importance generates clickbait headlines for left-leaning media, it isn’t particularly insightful or relevant when trying to understand the views of young Americans. 

Market Research Foundation conducted an in-depth survey of Generation Z this spring, and gathered nuanced responses to specific policy goals that we believe are more useful than asking young people to react to politically-loaded key words.

Are Young People Really Less ‘Patriotic’? 

The left loves to talk about trigger words, and for once that rhetorical framework might prove moderately useful. Asking people to respond to a word as politically-charged and vague as ‘patriotism’ is not likely to yield useful data. The word is entirely subjective, and could call to mind all manner of government corruption and state-sanctioned violence. Just because younger Americans are less likely to adorn themselves with the word patriotic, does not mean they oppose real-world patriotic policy goals that put the needs of Americans first.
We asked young people their views on an “America First” policy agenda where, “the primary goal of any law or policy must be to focus on the needs of Americans, even if they are not in line with the interests of foreign nations and allies.”  When asked this direct question, 73% of Generation Z approved of this policy agenda.

We also found that questions framed in terms of the financial tradeoff between domestic economic concerns and intervening in foreign affairs earned overwhelming support for non-interventionalist policies. Eighty-two percent of young people agreed with the statement: “If the government spent as much time dealing with economic problems at home as it does on the problems of foreign nations, our economy would be much better off.” Sixty-eight percent of young people agreed with the statement: “I don’t like seeing money that we can be using on our country’s needs being used on another country.” Below is a summary of young people’s views on specific detailed statements and policies involving the United States in relation to other nations.

 

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It is abundantly clear from this data that a majority of Generation Z holds strong anti-foreign aid and anti-foreign meddling stances that are the embodiment of patriotism - focusing on solving issues at home instead of policing the globe.

Are Young People Really Less ‘Religious’?

Another conclusion from the poll spreading like wildfire through online-political discourse is that young Americans are less ‘religious’ than older generations. While that makes for a neat narrative and a share-friendly headline, this is incorrect when measuring actual church attendance, as shown below.

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Overall, 64% of Generation Z attends religious services at some point during the year.  Those who do attend religious services are significantly more likely to attend often than they are to attend occasionally. Our survey also found that race is an important factor in understanding Generation Z’s religious participation. Among Black young people, a full 70% attend religious services at least sometimes and among Hispanic young people 67% attend religious services sometimes while 63% of White young people attend religious services sometimes, and 19% attend at least once a week.

The poll’s rankings give at best a cursory overview of young people’s knee-jerk reactions to politically-loaded key words, but the questions lack the context and specifics to yield a meaningful understanding of Generation Z’s values. Ask a sixteen-year-old, a thirty-year-old, and a 60-year-old what ‘patriotism’ actually means to them, and you’re getting closer to something relevant. Ask the same people what they think about specific, detailed policy proposals like avoiding international conflicts and putting America first, and you’re going to get even closer.

Bill Wilson is the President of the Market Research Foundation and a former board member and former President of Americans for Limited Government.


Video: Trump's sanctions and tariffs against China will likely stay in place even after Trump leaves office

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To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTScIiNbCIk


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U.S. agreement with Japan on corn obviates any need to revisit ethanol refining waivers

Aug. 27, 2019, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement reacting favorably to the U.S.-Japan agreement in principle on trade including to purchase corn:

"A U.S. trade agreement with Japan is long overdue and comes at a critical strategic moment, demonstrating that with long-standing allies there are alternatives to China to be developed. In addition, thanks to Japan's agreement to purchase $7 billion of U.S. agricultural products, mainly corn, the deal obviates any worries from farm states about a limited number of fuel refiners obtaining waivers from mixing ethanol into gasoline. Building the U.S. relationship with Japan is a strategic imperative and here Trump is showing that it can get done on a bilateral basis to advance U.S. interests and pave the way for a longer term deal."

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2019/08/u-s-agreement-with-japan-on-corn-obviates-any-need-to-revisit-ethanol-refining-waivers/


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ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured report from the Washington Times, Chinese students from abroad studying in college universities in national security fields could be helping to bolster Beijing’s advantage in cutting-edge military technologies:

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China suspected of flooding U.S. with students to access sensitive programs

By Ben Wolfgang

America’s plan to catch China in the race to deploy super-fast hypersonic weapons may begin in college classrooms.

Academic leaders, lawmakers, and military and intelligence officials say Washington needs to take a harder look at the number of Chinese who come to the U.S. to study engineering, aeronautics, astronautics, quantum mechanics and other fields that have direct connections to national security. The massive influx of Chinese students in recent years, they say, has led directly to Beijing’s advantage in the development of hypersonics and other cutting-edge technology — though U.S. officials say privately that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to track individual cases of students gaining specific insights in a given area and then taking that knowledge back home.

The issue of China’s “academic espionage” raises delicate questions about discrimination and academic freedom, and the education and military sectors have struggled to strike the right balance between protecting classified research and attracting the diverse, international student base prized by top universities.

The strength and depth of the American higher education system are seen as a strategic asset for the U.S., one that could be weakened if classrooms and research labs are closed to certain populations.

Academic leaders say Washington needs to lead the way in developing a comprehensive strategy to counter China’s long-term efforts to use America’s institutions for its own gain. Relying on individual professors or universities to police themselves, scholars say, is ineffective.

“You cannot rely on faculty doing the right thing,” Iain Boyd, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Michigan, said during a recent hypersonic weapons conference at Purdue University.

Beijing has also explicitly targeted ethnic Chinese students, entrepreneurs and high-tech researchers working abroad to come home through its Thousand Talents Plan. The effort has become so sensitive that Chinese officials reportedly have been told not to identify the foreign scholars and figures whom they are trying to lure back home.

Hypersonics — weapons or aircraft that can travel at least five times the speed of sound — is one area where China is outpacing the U.S., partly by sending large numbers of its top students to American colleges. Those students often pay full tuition upfront, making them highly coveted in university admissions offices.

“Some faculty are going to think, ‘Yes, I should be careful about recruitment.’ But if there are no restrictions in place, other faculty will maybe not even be aware that it’s something to think about,” Mr. Boyd said. “And maybe for their own selfish reasons, just looking at whether it is students from China, where everything is paid for, so it’s a free ride for the professor. If the community, if the government, wants the situation to change, they will have to change it.”

Troubling cases

In the 2017-2018 academic year, over 360,000 Chinese were studying at American institutions. A decade ago, the figure was 100,000.

Although the vast majority of Chinese students attend school in the U.S. for straightforward academic reasons, others — and in some cases professors — come with close ties to the government in Beijing.

A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute last year said China’s People’s Liberation Army had paid for at least 2,500 military scientists and engineers to study abroad, including in the U.S.

Just this week, a University of Kansas professor was indicted on federal fraud charges accusing him of concealing that he worked for a Chinese university while conducting U.S. government-funded research. The Kansas City Star reported that Feng “Franklin” Tao, 47, of Lawrence, who taught chemical engineering and chemistry, was charged with one count of wire fraud and three counts of program fraud.

The FBI, State Department, Department of Justice and a host of other government agencies have ramped up their efforts to work directly with universities to encourage better vetting of Chinese students and to limit their access to any sensitive research related to national security.

The problem, officials say, extends far beyond hypersonics and other military-related programs.

The National Institutes of Health warned last year that its programs may be at risk.

“NIH is aware that some foreign entities have mounted systematic programs to influence NIH researchers and peer reviewers and to take advantage of the long tradition of trust, fairness and excellence of NIH-supported research activities,” NIH Director Dr. Francis S. Collins wrote in an August 2018 letter. “This kind of inappropriate influence is not limited to biomedical research; it has been a significant issue for defense and energy research for some time.”

U.S. officials say the Chinese strategy is long term and revolves around getting as many students into American universities as possible, with the hope that at least a handful of them return with new knowledge in cutting-edge fields.

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are tackling the issue. The House version of the massive 2020 National Defense Authorization Act includes a provision requiring the Pentagon and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to develop a list of foreign entities that could conduct “research espionage.”

The version in the Republican-led Senate is even more pointed. It calls on the Pentagon to specifically identify any institutions in China and Russia that “are known to recruit individuals for the purpose of advancing the talent and capabilities of such a defense program or to provide misleading transcripts or otherwise attempt to conceal the connections of an individual or institution to such a defense program.”

Those lists would presumably aid universities, federal agencies and other stakeholders in vetting students.

Cracking down

Higher education groups say they are encouraging universities to take the issue more seriously and to more closely examine the backgrounds, financing and affiliations of any Chinese institutions with which they work.

“The issue is that there are foreign governments that are very aggressively trying to surpass the United States in specific science and technology fields,” said Sarah Spreitzer, director of government relations at the American Council on Education. “Because of the aggressive nature [of foreign governments], we need to be on our toes.”

The elevated concern over Chinese academic espionage comes against a broader backdrop of discord between the Trump administration and the Communist Party leadership in Beijing. The two sides remain locked in a bitter trade war, and military tensions are simmering as China increases its reach in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the Pacific.

President Trump, who argues that it’s long past time to confront China on a variety of fronts, has taken some action to address the academic side. The State Department, for example, said last year that it would shorten the duration of stay on visas for some Chinese students in the U.S.

Some of the president’s Republican supporters in Congress argue that the White House should go further and use the rising number of Chinese students at American schools as leverage in broader negotiations.

Sen. Tom Cotton, Arkansas Republican, suggested this week that the U.S. should consider expelling some Chinese students if the government in Beijing mounts a military crackdown on protesters in Hong Kong.

“Let’s not be naive,” he told radio host Hugh Hewitt. “There are reasons that they are going to universities that are affiliated with national laboratories or that have large Department of Defense presences. If they want to come to small liberal arts colleges to study the Western canon, to understand why liberal democracy is the best form of government that we’ve ever invented, that’s one thing. If they want to go to a university that has large DoD presence to study quantum mechanics, that’s another thing.”

Despite those concerns, some analysts argue that the U.S. must exercise caution to avoid singling out any specific country or discriminating against any particular nationality of students.

“That’s a really dangerous path to go on,” said Ms. Spreitzer. “It’s not just China. I think by focusing only on one country, you’re missing the broader picture that these countries are being very aggressive in undertaking these efforts.”

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