Watch now (31 mins) | Voters are no longer separating “the economy is bad” from “I’m doing fine." And that shift is politically lethal.
͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­
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Donny Downfall | Behind the Numbers with Rick & Andrew Wilson

Voters are no longer separating “the economy is bad” from “I’m doing fine." And that shift is politically lethal.

Rick Wilson and Andrew Wilson
Dec 20
 
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  • Inflation anxiety has crossed into personal insecurity, with falling-behind sentiment flashing red across the electorate.

  • Trump’s economic promises now collide with lived experience, where tariffs and healthcare costs overwhelm any tax-cut messaging.

  • The collapse of MAGA turnout loyalty reshapes 2026 into a turnout war, not a persuasion contest.


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Rick and Andrew frame the data as something darker than a midterm slump: a structural break between narrative politics and household reality.

When 44% say they’re falling behind, that’s not messaging failure—it’s a governing failure that no culture-war distraction can mask. Their point about tax cuts landing differently than in 2017 underscores how context, not policy branding, determines political payoff.

The discussion of healthcare costs turning tax relief into a mirage sharpens why economic optimism isn’t bouncing back, even hypothetically. Layered onto that is a turnout collapse inside MAGA that threatens not just 2026 candidates but the entire Trump succession fantasy.

Tune in to Behind the Numbers for a data-driven look at why the political ground is shifting under Trump—and what the polling says comes next.


Articles

Americans Are Losing Confidence — and Republicans Are Losing their Story

Andrew Wilson
·
Oct 16
Americans Are Losing Confidence — and Republicans Are Losing their Story

The latest Economist/YouGov polling paints a grim picture of where Americans stand: 57% say the economy is getting worse.

Read full story
A guest post by
Andrew Wilson
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