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Throughout Donald Trump’s second term, we have seen bad poll after bad poll. His favorability among moderate and independent voters has collapsed. Hispanic voters, disturbed by Trump’s deportation campaign and a faltering economy, have done a complete 180. Even Republicans—especially within the core MAGA constituency—are starting to show cracks.
All of that is disastrous for Trump and for Republicans. But bad numbers alone will not miraculously stop us from careening toward the black hole that is Trump 2028. Polling doesn’t tell whether we win or lose elections. It measures public mood as best it can—a game of telephone where voters tell pollsters, pollsters tell us, and meaning is often distorted along the way.
Voters are angry about prices. Trump, in his dotage, cannot change his mind. Inflation driven by tariffs is here to stay, regardless of what the Supreme Court does. High prices in cities are nothing new, but Trump’s tariffs have nationalized the problem, dragging it into the smallest corner of rural America. This is Trump’s economy now. He owns it and voters know it.
To their credit, Democrats are largely nailing the affordability argument. But a trust gap still lingers after the Joe Biden presidency. That’s why the combination of affordability and Epstein matters. It isn’t just scandal-mongering; it’s a narrative that’s been missing. Trump promised the moon but delivered only oozing corruption and incompetence. Democrats finally have an opportunity to repair a badly damaged brand by making the contrast unavoidable.
You can tell Trump knows he’s failing by the manic, flailing “address” he gave Wednesday night. Nothing telegraphs confidence like a breathless rant. Unfortunately for Americans, things are about to get worse. ACA subsidies are expiring. Prices are still rising. And voters are directing their anger exactly where it belongs: at Trump and at Congress.
Mike Johnson’s house is on fire. The shutdown and Epstein have pushed more vulnerable districts into play, and Democrats should exploit that relentlessly. This is where affordability becomes a weapon. Democrats can—and should—hammer the Republican “moderates” who have meekly gone along with Project 2025. GOP retirements and defections are no longer isolated incidents; they’re a full-blown crisis. Mike Johnson’s grip on the House is nonexistent, and his prospects even worse.
Meanwhile, MAGA voters feel abandoned. For a year, they’ve watched Trump fete foreign dictators and tech billionaires. While their bills kept rising, Trump played architect and interior decorator. That said, MAGA is not a spent force in electoral politics, but without Trump’s name on the ballot, there is nothing to redeem Republican hopes.
Trump knows his polling is grim, but he has pinned his hopes on a fantasy: some future economic miracle, when the tax cuts finally kick in and your rich uncle dies. He is just as delusional as his most loyal minions. Remember, Biden managed to stabilize and grow the economy, yet his polling never recovered. Trump is headed for the same fate, only with far less patience from voters and far more damage along the way.
As Trump’s star wanes, Democrats do not automatically benefit. Across every survey, the economy and inflation remain the abiding concerns of the American people. The path forward is narrow but clear. Democrats should stay relentlessly focused on affordability—prices, rent, healthcare, and energy—and treat everything else as noise.
Not because polls say so—but because voters already have.
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