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** New CFTNI Report & Event Assess Central Asia, GCC Engagement in the Region
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I am pleased to share a new report from Center for the National Interest Senior Fellow Greg Priddy ([link removed]) and Research Fellow Elvira Aidarkhanova ([link removed]) exploring the recent trend toward deepening ties between the Gulf Arab states and Central Asia.

With the end of the Cold War and the independence of the Central Asian states at the end of 1991, an artificial barrier was removed that had walled off the Gulf Arab countries from a region with which there had previously been significant connectivity prior to Russian rule. However, the depth of these new bilateral relationships, particularly in terms of trade and investment, remained weak, partly due to the lack of economic complementarity. The last eight years, however, have seen a shift toward an upgrading of many of those bilaterial relationships as well as the establishment of institutionalized regional groupings. The rise of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to full power following the 2017 “palace coup,” and his drive to diversify the Saudi economy beyond hydrocarbons, quickly led to a sharp uptick in Saudi diplomatic activity in Central Asia. This development, in turn, spurred other Gulf Arab countries, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to step up their own engagement in
order to compete. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Central Asian states showed an increased appetite to diversify their ties away from heavy dependence on Russia and to pursue enhanced connectivity with the Gulf Arab states as part of their multivectored foreign policies.

I hope that you will review this valuable and timely new paper: GCC-Central Asia Relations in the Post-Cold War Era ([link removed])

On December 9, the Center for the National Interest, in partnership with the International Tax and Investment Center, hosted a public event examining the evolving geopolitical competition in Central Asia, including the roles of Russia, China, and the United States. The event was moderated by CFTNI Senior Fellow Andrew Kuchins ([link removed]) . We invite you to watch a recording of the event: Great Power Competition in Central Asia ([link removed])

For further information regarding the Center’s Middle East and Central Asia programs, please contact us at [email protected].

Paul J. Saunders

President

Center for the National Interest

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GCC-Central Asia Relations in the Post-Cold War Era

Relations between the Gulf Arab countries, Iran, and the states of former Soviet Central Asia (CA) have gone through two major periods of change over the last four decades. When these four decades began, during the late Cold War era, there was very little connectivity between CA and the rapidly growing and modernizing Gulf Arab states. Currently, there are increasingly institutionalized interregional relationships between CA countries and Gulf countries, including growing business ties, growing cultural ties, and deepening connectivity.

As this report shows in detail, the impact of these trends has led to a sharp uptick since 2017 in both the institutionalization of relationships between Gulf Arab and Central Asian states and to a general trend toward increasing bilateral trade and investment volumes.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

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Great Power Competition in Central Asia

Central Asia has long been subject to the influence of Russia and China, as their proximity and historical relationships with these states have fostered longstanding strategic and economic ties. While American engagement with the Central Asian States has intensified as the U.S. seeks to access critical minerals, transportation corridors, and energy resources, centuries of Russian and Chinese interaction with the region pose significant competitive challenges. U.S.-Central Asian relations now stand at a pivotal moment, as the agreements reached at the C5+1 summit and the inclusion of Kazakhstan in the Abraham Accords stand to redefine this competition.

On December 9, the Center for the National Interest, in partnership with the International Tax and Investment Center, hosted a panel of leading experts on Central Asia.

Watch it here ([link removed]) .

About the Authors:

Elvira Aidarkhanova ([link removed]) is a Research Fellow at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC, where her research focuses on Central Asia and the Gulf States, and also leads MaruGlobal Foundation, a nonprofit organization supporting vulnerable communities. Elvira’s professional background also includes senior roles in communications and strategy in both the public and private sectors of Central Asian states, as well as participation in international research programs, including the Central Asia Program at The George Washington University. Elvira holds B.A. and M.A. degrees from Al-Farabi Kazakh National University and a second M.A. From Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University in Turkiye. She also participated in Hanyang University’s summer graduate program in South Korea and is currently pursuing an MBA at Boston University.

Greg Priddy ([link removed]) is Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest. He also consults for corporate and financial clients on political risk in the region and global energy markets. From 2006 to 2018, Mr. Priddy was Director, Global Oil, at Eurasia Group. Prior to that, from 1999 to 2006, Mr. Priddy worked as a contractor for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the U.S. Department of Energy. Mr. Priddy holds an M.A. In International Relations from George Washington University and has studies at the American University in Cairo.

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