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191 State Legislative Seats at Risk
Supreme Court Case Could Decimate Fair Representation Across the South
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Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund have released a new report warning that if the Supreme Court guts Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais, Republican-controlled legislatures in the South could eliminate 191 state legislative seats currently held by Democrats, with the vast majority representing majority-Black districts.
The new report provides an expanded picture of the stakes for American democracy – following a previous analysis that found gutting Section 2 could allow Republicans to redraw maps and create 19 additional safe, GOP U.S. House seats. Such a ruling by the far-right justices would open the door for an aggressive wave of mid-decade gerrymanders that could wipe out Black and brown representation in state capitols and lock in one-party rule.
By dismantling protections that allow communities of color to have fair representation and sustain majority-Black and other majority-minority districts, the decision could erase decades of hard-won gains for voters of color in the South.
Key Findings:
The total number of state legislative districts where Black or Hispanic voters make up a majority could fall from 342 to 202 – a loss of 140 districts, or 2 out of 5 Black- or Hispanic-majority districts in the South.
Black-majority districts could drop from 273 to 146 – a loss of 127 districts, nearly half of all Black-majority districts in the South.
Hispanic-majority districts could drop from 69 to 56 – a loss of 13 districts, nearly one out of every five Hispanic-majority districts in the South.
Minority political power could be locked out for a generation, blocking progress on healthcare, public school funding, gun safety, reproductive freedom, voting rights, and other critical issues.
State Consequences if Section 2 is Gutted:
Georgia: Even as Democrats recently swept 2 statewide races and flipped a Trump +12 state House district, the map could be changed to weaken existing Black‑majority and majority‑minority districts, limiting how these wins can translate into durable power in the legislature.
Louisiana: 23 Black‑majority districts could be eliminated, locking Democrats deep into a superminority in both chambers.
Mississippi: In the state with the highest percentage of Black residents, Democrats may lose half their caucus, risking a hard‑won break in GOP supermajorities.
North Carolina: Democratic representation could fall below 40%, effectively neutralizing the governor’s veto power and giving Republicans near‑total control over state policy.
Six additional Southern states: The report includes projections for six other Southern states, showing similar patterns of disappearing Black‑majority and majority‑minority districts and expanded GOP supermajorities.
Read and download the full report • Louisiana v. Callais: The Supreme Court Case That Could Decimate Fair Representation in State Legislatures
“When fair representation is dismantled, communities most harmed by bad policy lose the lawmakers who fight for their needs. As Trump loses support from voters who powered his 2024 win and Democrats gain ground, he and his allies are scrambling to rig the maps because a fair 2026 election means they lose seats at every level. If the corrupt, far-right justices gut Section 2, it gives politicians a chance to rule without accountability,” said Lauren Groh-Wargo, Fair Fight Action CEO.
“Stripping away 191 state legislative seats isn’t just a political reshuffle; it’s an attack on fair representation and a direct threat to the voices and political power of millions of Black and Brown voters who deserve to be heard. Gutting section 2 of the Voting Rights Act opens the door for Republicans to strip power and resources from Black communities at every level of government. We continue to sound the alarm, to make people aware of what’s at stake, and to demonstrate that together we have the power to resist. Trump and his GOP allies in Congress, state legislative branches, and courts rely on cheating and rigging the maps to maintain their power, but our history shows that real change comes from grassroots organizing,” said Cliff Albright and LaTosha Brown, co-founders of Black Voters Matter Fund, and April England Albright, National Legal Director.
GOP Preparations and Risks:
Republicans are preparing to act when Section 2 falls. Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina GOP officials are preparing to redraw maps. But, the strategy is starting to show signs of political blowback. In Mississippi, Democrats just broke the GOP state Senate supermajority. In Georgia, Democrats swept two statewide Public Service Commission races by landslide margins and flipped State House District 121, a Trump +12 seat, underscoring how quickly “safe” territory can turn competitive. In California, voters approved a constitutional amendment to counter GOP map-rigging, proving that when voters understand the stakes, they support aggressive pro‑democracy reforms. Recent resistance from Indiana Senate Republicans, who voted down Trump’s demanded rigged map despite heavy pressure, shows backlash inside the GOP is beginning to surface.
Parallels with the Redemption Court:
The report situates Callais within a broader historical arc, drawing parallels between today’s corrupted, far-right Supreme Court justices and the Redemption-era Court that used racially neutral language to dismantle Reconstruction and paved the way for Jim Crow.
The Path Forward:
The report makes clear there is still a path forward – blue‑state leaders can redraw maps and offset the Republican map-rigging without weakening minority voting power. State legislators can commit to fighting against discriminatory and unfair political maps and file voting rights bills. Communities across the country can organize, raise awareness, and pressure lawmakers to reject discriminatory maps and defend fair representation.
Spread the Word:
The new report was covered by Stateline and re-published by their state-level affiliate newsrooms across the country. Share the story using one of their links to help spread the word in your community:
Opportunities to join rallies, mobilize voters, and volunteer to help spread the word will become available as the Court rules and states announce redistricting.
Stay vigilant,
Fair Fight Team
Paid for by Fair Fight Action.
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