Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for July 20, 2020

1937 Revisited
America prematurely pulled back on federal relief then. We're planning
to do so again

 

Bronze figures at the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial in Washington.
(J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

First Response

Last year on this day we were marveling at the 50th anniversary of the
moon landing, celebrating American ingenuity that can meet any
challenge. Today we're hoping that only 800 people die from this
disease that we've largely given up on containing. We also begin a
critical week for the future of the U.S. economy.

A boost to state jobless aid of $600 a week ends this week for most
recipients. (The Journal manages to get two things wrong

in its lede; the practical end to the benefit is July 25 or 26 depending
on how a state calculates its work week, and it's more like 32 million
people receiving or set to receive benefits, not 25 million.) One-time
checks were sent out long ago. The lack of state and local fiscal aid
has already set in motion layoffs and triggered premature reopenings

(as is clearly seen in, for example, California breaking its own
guidelines

to reopen). Small business failures have accelerated and states are
headed back into lockdown, either formally or functionally. If you only
look through June you see an economy bouncing back, but economic
indicators are all looking bad this month
.

With this backdrop, Congress is set to begin negotiations on the next
bill. This is unfolding exactly the way the CARES Act unfolded;
Republican leaders are huddling in the White House
,
preparing to write a bill without outside input, which they will then
present to Democrats as if the House-passed Heroes Act never existed.
Parts of that wish list like hazard pay for essential workers

seem all but dead. Instead, Mitch McConnell is dictating terms.

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Here's what those terms look like
:
it starts with a broad release from liability for corporations whose
workers and customers get sick. That's priority number one; not
stopping the virus, but stopping lawsuits about the virus. The
"temporary" liability would last four years

for businesses who make "reasonable" efforts to follow public health
guidelines (of which there aren't any at the federal level, so
that's not much of a hurdle), and adds damage caps just in case a
couple cases sneak through. The measure would include hospitals and
schools, so parents should know that the party pressuring schools to
reopen also wants to give them immunity from sickening your child (and
potentially you). Keep in mind that there are next to no lawsuits

right now.

There will be some form of funding for schools, probably attached to
reopening and probably including private schools. More money will be
thrown at testing and vaccine R&D (unless the White House sabotages it
),
which is good, but if the public is paying for creating a vaccine, there
should be no need to pay again to receive it (don't tell that to Wall
Street, which is bidding up every pharma company that updates its
vaccine development). McConnell wants to re-appropriate the $130 billion
left in the PPP (which, if trends are any guide
,
will get larger the next couple weeks) for what seems to be a second
grant to businesses with deep revenue losses. Banks are also pushing to
just forgive

the initial PPP loans, because they don't want to do a stitch of work
in verification that the money was spent within the program guidelines.
I don't see what they'd do anyway, verification was on the business
borrower, but uploading that to the Small Business Administration is
apparently too big a burden for $18 billion in fees
.

Missing from this is any state and local fiscal aid. Republican leaders
say they just want to free up whatever's left from the paltry $150
billion given out in the CARES Act to fill budget holes. That won't be
close to enough. Unemployment assistance is likely to be lowered,
possibly tempered by a one-time check or a "signing bonus" to return
to work. On the other hand, Republicans will likely buckle to Trump's
demand

for a payroll tax cut, thereby helping out workers who have a job more
than the 30 million-plus who don't in the name of "targeted
stimulus."

Chuck Schumer has implicitly threatened
that a bill
written inside McConnell's office won't get any Democratic support
and therefore won't break the 60-vote threshold. But he used the CARES
Act-the bill that got us in this position in the first place-as a
model for how to proceed.

The whole thing has got me thinking about 1937. The Social Security Act
started collecting payroll taxes that year, even though payouts did not
begin until 1940. Franklin Roosevelt compounded this quirk in the
calendar by deciding to eliminate the budget deficit, including cuts to
the Public Works Administration and the Works Progress Administration,
and even ... cutting unemployment benefits. The result was a recession
inside the Great Depression.

At least Roosevelt had four years of gains behind him before foolishly
venturing into austerity and finding that the economy was too sick to
support it. We've had two decent jobs reports, and a resumption of
cases that blocks any further recovery. The economy can't even support
a normal cycle of spending right now, let alone a sharp reduction in
income for 30 million-plus unemployed people. We have a week for
everyone to come to their senses.

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Monopolized

Have I mentioned that I have a book coming out tomorrow? Monopolized:
Life in the Age of Corporate Power releases on July 21, and you can
learn more about it and pick up your copy here
.

I'll have more on that tomorrow, but I was on This is the Zero Hour
with R.J. Eskow

giving my first wide-ranging interview on the book. Listen here
.
I'll let you know about more appearances as they roll out; several are
scheduled for this week.

I should also mention that I'm on a panel at Netroots Nation about
regulation

and the next president. It's happening Friday, August 14 at 4pm ET.
More information about Netroots Nation is here
.

Support Independent, Fact-Checked Journalism

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

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.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* We still haven't moved to deconcentrate supply chains, so flooding
rather than coronavirus in Wuhan
,
China is causing more problems. (Reuters)

* Group testing approved

in the U.S., this may look like less testing depending on how it's
recorded but it will reach more people, very good news. (Politico)

* Governor of Missouri says hey, kids will get coronavirus

and that's OK. (St. Louis Today)

* The Trump administration's M.O. this entire time has been to not
take any responsibility
.
Fighting the virus was a lower priority, if at all. (New York Times)

* At least we're not the Bolivian Senate, which approved bleach

as a COVID-19 treatment. (Business Insider)

* How coronavirus is making weather forecasts worse
.
(Geophysical research letters)

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