A closer look at 4 newly-drawn swing districts.
Hi John,
Last week Swing Left announced that we’re expanding our House targets list for the 2026 midterm election. With the addition of 11 new swing districts, we’re now targeting a total of 33 districts that could make the difference in helping Democrats win back the House of Representatives next year.
Today we’re taking a deeper look at 4 newly-formed districts (as a result of redistricting) that have been added to our target map.
As a reminder of how we got here, Ohio was required to redraw its congressional map this year due to the state legislature failing to adopt a map with bipartisan support in 2022. And in California, in response to gerrymandered maps passed by Republicans in Texas, voters approved new maps with the passage of Prop 50.
With new maps in place, Swing Left has decided to add these swing districts—2 currently held by Republicans in California and 2 held by Democrats in Ohio—to our target races, as the work of the Swing Left community has the potential to make the difference in who wins on Election Day.
- California’s 22nd District is currently held by Republican Rep. David Valadao, who was first elected to Congress in 2012. But since California voters passed Prop 50 this November, Fresno’s urban and suburban areas were added to the district under the new map, reducing its Republican lean and prompting independent analysts The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball to classify it as a “toss up.”
- California’s 48th District is currently held by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who was first elected to Congress in the year 2000. Although he won by nearly 20 points in 2024, his district was also redrawn following the passage of Prop 50, and now includes more Democratic-leaning portions of the Coachella Valley and surrounding areas, sharply reducing the district’s Republican tilt. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also classify this district as a “toss up” following redistricting this year.
- Ohio’s 1st District is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, who was first elected in 2022. His district was redrawn to remove many urban Hamilton County voters and reintroduce GOP-friendly suburbs and exurbs in their place, making this seat ultra-competitive. Independent analysts rate the newly drawn district as a “toss up.”
- Ohio’s 13th District is currently held by Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, also first elected in 2022. Last year, Rep. Sykes defeated her Republican opponent by just 2.2%. While redistricting this year gives Democrats a slight advantage in this district, the counties that make up the seat have been trending towards Republicans over the last few elections. This is expected to be a tight race that comes down to a few points.
While Democrats are certainly entering 2026 with meaningful momentum, strong results in 2025 won’t automatically translate into success next year. These newly redrawn districts are now some of the most competitive in the country—and winning them will require early organizing and financial support.
There will be many opportunities in the months ahead to volunteer, and we’ll keep you updated on ways to take action.
You can also split a donation of $25, or any amount that makes sense for you, between Swing Left and the future Democratic nominees in each of our 33 target swing districts.
Your contribution supports Swing Left’s national organizing work, including our innovative voter contact program, Ground Truth. It also allows campaigns to go on offense on day one of the general election: hiring staff, running ads, and reaching voters sooner before Republicans go on the attack.
Donate $25 Now
Together, we can put Democrats in the strongest position possible to flip the House next year—and put a real check on Donald Trump’s agenda.
Thank you for reading, and make sure to stay tuned for another deep-dive into more of our target swing districts coming soon.
Tomás Kloosterman
National Political Director, Swing Left
