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** Why Maduro’s Guerrilla Allies Matter
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Mike LaSusa, Deputy Director of Content
12 DEC, 2025
As the United States continues its military pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, I’ve been struck by the relative lack of discussion about one of the regime’s most important criminal allies: the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional - ELN ([link removed]) ).
Maduro has long provided the Colombia-born guerrilla group with safe haven in Venezuela. The ELN shares the government’s leftist ideology and helps suppress political dissent. It also regulates criminal economies like the drug trade that grease the wheels of corruption and maintain the loyalty of senior officials.
But one of the ELN’s most important roles – especially now, with the United States threatening military action – is its control over much of the Venezuela-Colombia border.
President Donald Trump has suggested he might order airstrikes inside Venezuela. If those strikes hit ELN targets, which largely lie along the border, Maduro would have added incentive to respond. Such an attack would not only violate national sovereignty but would also threaten an ally he depends on.
In a scenario involving a full-scale invasion, the ELN would almost certainly aid Maduro in attempting to repel the invading forces. Landing troops and material by sea, or entering from Venezuela’s eastern neighbor Guyana, would be difficult given the geography of coastlines and thick jungle. Any large-scale operation would likely run through Colombia – something current President Gustavo Petro would never allow, though a future government might.
Maduro has other criminal allies ([link removed]) , but the ELN is arguably the most powerful – and certainly the most battle-tested. It has fought the Colombian state for over half a century, and thanks to its relationship with Maduro, it is currently at one of the strongest points in its history.
That’s why we examined the group in a new report launched this week ([link removed]) with an in-person event in Colombia. The topic has important implications not only for Colombia and Venezuela, but for the entire regional security landscape. Dive into the report, and stay tuned as we continue to follow this space.
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To kick off the new year in 2026, InSight Crime co-directors Steven Dudley and Jeremy McDermott will join some of our most experienced field investigators for a discussion of the Criminal GameChangers annual series.
Register here ([link removed])
Take a closer look at the standout stories from Latin America and the Caribbean that crossed our desk this week:
OnTheRadar (#OnTheRadar) | Editor’s Pick (#Editors-pick) #Editors-pick | Don’t Miss (#Dont-Miss) | In the Spotlight (#In-The-Spotlight) | Audio (#Audio)
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#OnTheRadar ()
** This Week in Organized Crime ([link removed])
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◉ ([link removed]) [link removed] violence rocks Haiti as gang truce crumbles. ([link removed])
◉ ([link removed]) Ecuador’s prison crisis grows worse with another mass gang killing. ([link removed])
◉ ([link removed]) Car bomb highlights modern tactics of Mexico’s organized crime groups. ([link removed])
Watch this Reel ([link removed])
#Editor’sPick ()
Investigations > ([link removed])
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** Latest Investigation: Peace Never Had a Chance: Colombia’s ELN in Venezuela ([link removed])
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This investigation looks at the growth of the ELN in Venezuela and how this has allowed the rebel group to extend its influence in Colombia. It also examines how the ELN and the Maduro regime are now in a symbiotic relationship, each dependent on the other – and each stronger for it.
Read the investigation ([link removed])
Listen to Ch. 5 ([link removed])
🔴 Watch event livestream ([link removed])
< Criminal Profiles ([link removed])
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** In the Spotlight ()
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** Honduras Country Profile ([link removed])
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More than a week after Hondurans went to the polls to elect a new president, an official winner has yet to be declared.
** No matter who wins, the country faces several organized crime-related challenges ranging from the growth of predatory crimes like extortion and forced disappearances to the expansion of coca cultivation and political corruption.
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** Stay up to date on all of the criminal challenges present in Honduras by reading our in-depth profile ([link removed]) of the Central American nation.
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** Don’t Miss ()
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🔗 On the Radar: Violence Spikes in Battles for Control in Haiti, Ecuador and Mexico ([link removed])
🔗 What a ‘Historic’ Marijuana Seizure Says About Smuggling Dynamics in Argentina ([link removed])
🔗 On the Radar: US Targets and Negotiates with Traffickers ([link removed])
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** #Audio () 9 DEC, 2025
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** The Future of the ELN ([link removed])
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How the ELN has solidified its power in Venezuela.
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InSight Crime is sponsored by:
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The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency ([link removed])
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