Having trouble viewing this email?  [ [link removed] ]View it as a Web page [ [link removed] ].






s




12.11.2025






Breaking Down the Latest Budget Forecast

________________________________________________________________________







Friends and neighbors,

Last week, Minnesota’s Office of Management and Budget released its November forecast. The short-term news looks stable, but the long-term trends show real warning signs. State spending continues to grow faster than revenue, and unless we address this, Minnesota is headed toward a significant deficit in the years ahead.

Here is the statement I shared with the press:

"“The new forecast paints a very clear picture. Yes, we are seeing a short-term surplus of $2.5 billion, but that does not mean our finances are healthy. The long-term outlook shows Minnesota is heading toward another multi-billion dollar deficit in 2028 and 2029, and if the current surplus is spent instead of saved, that deficit could reach $5.4 billion. That is the consequence of decisions made when Democrats controlled every lever of power at the Capitol. Spending was increased by 40 percent, the entire $18 billion surplus was used up, and taxes were raised by another $10 billion, yet we are still not bringing in enough revenue to keep up with what they committed to spend. That is not responsible budgeting."

"We also cannot afford to ignore what has been happening across our state agencies. Minnesota has allowed fraud to get out of control, and taxpayers are left footing the bill every time money goes to criminals instead of helping the people who truly need it. ""We owe it to every family, every worker, and every small business to change course now. Minnesota’s financial future depends on leadership that understands the importance of living within our means.”"

________________________________________________________________________



Breaking Down the Numbers

While the current budget balances, state spending is projected to outpace revenue for years to come if nothing changes.

Here is what MMB projects going forward:

• *FY 2026–27:* Minnesota will spend "$2.2 billion more" than it brings in
• *FY 2028–29:* That gap grows to "$4.5 billion"

We are seeing an increase in revenue for the short term, but even "higher spending" driven by the rapid growth in government programs and their costs.  

This is not a one-year issue. It is a structural deficit, meaning Minnesota is on a path where spending continues rising faster than the revenue needed to pay for it.

________________________________________________________________________



*Takeaways from the Forecast*

* Minnesota has a $2.465 billion surplus in the current biennium.
* The projected shortfall in the planning years has now grown to $2.960 billion.
* Revenue growth slows significantly after FY 2025 due to weaker economic conditions.
* Health care program costs continue to climb and are the biggest driver of increased spending.
* The budget reserve has increased to $3.422 billion, which adds important stability but does not solve the structural deficit.

________________________________________________________________________



What Is Driving These Costs?

Government programs within Health and Human Services account for a majority of the new spending. Enrollment and program use continue to rise, and without strong oversight, fraud and mismanagement are draining resources away from the vulnerable Minnesotans these programs are meant to support.

________________________________________________________________________



Public Opinion is Clear

When I’m visiting with folks across our district, one thing is always clear. People expect their government to be responsible with their money. Families, small businesses, and local governments all have to live within their means. The state should be held to the same standard. Minnesotans do not want excuses or finger pointing. They want honest leadership that understands the value of a dollar and treats taxpayer money with respect.

People also want a government that focuses on what actually matters. That means protecting vulnerable Minnesotans, supporting safe communities, and making sure our schools and local services have the resources they need. What they do not want is a system that grows so fast it cannot be managed, where fraud is allowed to continue and no one is held accountable. That kind of approach breaks trust, and once trust is lost, it is hard to earn back.

________________________________________________________________________



2026 Legislative Session

We will receive another forecast in February, and that update will shape the supplemental budget work next session. My priority will be restoring accountability and ensuring taxpayer dollars are protected. That means demanding stronger oversight from state agencies, focusing our resources on the things Minnesotans rely on every day like classrooms and public safety, and slowing the unsustainable spending growth that is driving the state toward future deficits.

________________________________________________________________________



Working Together Means Change

Thank you for taking the time to stay informed. If you ever have questions, concerns, or ideas, please reach out to my office at the contact info below. I encourage you to call, email, or schedule a meeting so we can discuss in person. 

Be on the lookout for upcoming emails. In the weeks ahead, I will be sharing information on Minnesota’s new Paid Family and Medical Leave [ [link removed] ] program that takes effect in January, along with an update on what we have learned about the extent of fraud occurring in our state. Thank you.

Stay warm and have a great weekend, 

Bidal

 











Facebook Logo

 

/RepBidalDuran





Centennial Office Building
658 Cedar Street
Saint Paul, MN 55155
651-296-5992







________________________________________________________________________

Update your subscriptions, modify your password or email address, or stop subscriptions at any time on your Subscriber Preferences Page [ [link removed] ]. You will need to use your email address to log in. If you have questions or problems with the subscription service, please visit subscriberhelp.govdelivery.com [ [link removed] ].

This service is provided to you at no charge by Minnesota House GOP [ [link removed] ].

________________________________________________________________________

This email was sent to [email protected] using GovDelivery Communications Cloud on behalf of: Minnesota House GOP · 100 Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. · Saint Paul, MN 55155 GovDelivery logo [ [link removed] ]