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Trump's in a Nixon-Level Danger Zone Heading Into the 2026 Midterms
A new Gallup survey and Harry Enten’s historical review show President Trump approaching 2026 in one of the weakest second-term polling positions of the modern era.
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By Brian Daitzman
CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said President Donald Trump is in the worst second-term position in Gallup’s modern record at this stage except for Richard Nixon, calling Trump’s -24 net approval “a disaster if it holds.”
President Donald Trump is entering the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections with a Gallup net approval of negative 24, a level that CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, said is worse than every modern second-term president at this stage except Richard Nixon. On CNN News Central, Enten called the position “a disaster if it holds” toward the midterms.
Enten said Trump is “this far underwater” about a year before the midterms and argued that numbers at this level have historically been dangerous for a president’s party. He presented his warning as a product of Gallup’s long-running approval archive and its record of second-term comparisons.
The warning matters nationally because midterm elections often reorder congressional power and can shift the direction of federal policy.
Enten anchored his argument in Gallup’s newest job-approval release, which showed Trump at 36 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval — his lowest approval rating of the second term, as presented on CNN.
On air, Enten emphasized the pace of the decline. He noted that Trump’s net approval in January was about negative one point, close to even, and that it now stands at -24, a swing of roughly 23 points in less than a year.
Enten said the drop matches a broader polling pattern. He told viewers he had counted roughly ten national polls from different survey firms in the last 40 days showing Trump at his second-term low.
To put Trump’s position in context, Enten turned to Gallup’s historical record. He said the only modern second-term president who was worse off at a comparable stage was Nixon, whose net approval was around -36 points before he resigned in 1974.
Enten also compared Trump with other recent two-term presidents. He said George W. Bush’s net approval at a similar point in 2005 was roughly -19 and noted that Republicans later suffered major losses in the 2006 midterms.
He contrasted Trump’s standing with presidents who approached midterms from strength, citing Dwight D. Eisenhower at about +31 and Ronald Reagan at about +41 at comparable moments in their second terms.
Trump’s Approval Drops to 36% in Gallup Survey as Economy Weighs on Americans | ||||||
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By Brian Daitzman | ||||||
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Enten added that Trump’s net approval at this stage is lower than the second-term readings for presidents including Harry Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. In Enten’s accounting, that makes Trump the second-weakest second-term president in Gallup’s record at this point before midterms.
The core of Enten’s forecast rested on what he said about late turnarounds. Reviewing post-war trends, he said that since Truman, no second-term president in Gallup’s archive has improved his net approval by more than five points between this stage and midterm Election Day. Enten said Trump would need to “break history” to reverse course by 2026.
Brian Daitzman is the Editor of The Intellectualist. Read the original article here.
References
CNN (YouTube) | Dec. 2, 2025 | “‘A disaster if it holds’: Enten on Trump’s new low in poll”
Gallup | Nov. 28, 2025 | “Trump’s Approval Rating Drops to 36%, New Second-Term Low” | https://news.gallup.com/poll/699221/trump-approval-rating-drops-new-second-term-low.aspx
Forbes | Nov. 28, 2025 | “Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Slips to New Second-Term Low After End of Historic Government Shutdown” | https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2025/11/28/donald-trumps-approval-rating-slips-5-to-new-second-term-low-after-end-of-historic-government-shutdown/
The Daily Beast | Dec. 2, 2025 | “CNN Data Guru Breaks Down ‘Disaster’ Trump Poll” | https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-harry-enten-breaks-down-disaster-trump-poll/
The New Republic | Dec. 2, 2025 | “Only One President Was Less Popular Than Trump Is Right Now: Poll” | https://newrepublic.com/post/203799/donald-trump-popular-poll-richard-nixon
Pew Research Center | Aug. 14, 2025 | “Trump’s Job Approval and Views of His Personal Traits” | https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/08/14/trumps-job-approval-and-views-of-his-personal-traits/
American Presidency Project | Updated 2025 | “Presidential Job Approval: All Data” | https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-job-approval-all-data
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