Interim Update: November Budget Forecast
Dear Friends and Neighbors,
Last week, the Minnesota Office of Management and Budget (MMB) released the November budget forecast. I want to share a brief overview of what it means for our state and for you.
Short-Term Outlook
In the near term, the numbers look stable. The forecast shows:
Stronger-than-expected revenue collections and a solid fiscal year close have put Minnesota in decent shape for now.
Long-Term Concerns
The concern is not today’s surplus, but where the state is headed if current spending continues.
Here is what the forecast shows for the next budget cycles:
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FY 2026–27
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Planned spending: $68.44 billion
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Expected revenue: $66.262 billion
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Shortfall: about $2.2 billion
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FY 2028–29
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Planned spending: $72.277 billion
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Expected revenue: $67.787 billion
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Shortfall: about $4.5 billion
By 2028–29, Minnesota is projected to face a negative balance of nearly $3 billion before any new spending is added. This is what we call a structural deficit – when ongoing spending is simply higher than ongoing revenue.
Why It Matters
In plain terms, Minnesota has a spending problem.
If we do not address this structural imbalance, taxpayers could face:
Families and businesses cannot spend more than they bring in year after year, and state government should be held to the same standard.
Looking Ahead
As we head into the next session, we need to be realistic about our spending priorities and make sure the budget is built to last. While some reductions were made last session, this forecast shows more work is needed to put Minnesota on a stable long-term path.
I will continue pushing for responsible budgeting that protects taxpayers, preserves essential services, and avoids putting us in crisis a few years down the road. We must ensure we are not simply passing costs down to counties and cities, which we all know just raises your property taxes. When budget discussions move forward at the Capitol, I will keep you informed and let you know how proposals may affect our communities.
If you have questions or would like to share your thoughts, please reach out anytime. I value your input as we work to strengthen Minnesota’s financial future.
Sincerely,
Representative Wayne Johnson
House District 41A
Serving Lakeland, Afton, Baytown, Cottage Grove, Denmark, Grant, Lake Elmo, Lakeland Shores, Lake Saint Croix Beach, Saint Mary's Point, and West Lakeland.
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