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Thursday last week, Minnesota’s Office of Management and Budget released its November forecast showing short-term stability but clear long-term warning signs. State spending continues to grow faster than revenue, setting Minnesota up for a future deficit if meaningful action isn’t taken.
Here are the comments I made to the press:
"This forecast is another clear wake-up call. Minnesota cannot keep spending more than we take in and hope the numbers magically work out. Even after Democrats used their 2023 trifecta to pass historic tax increases, the state is still projected to spend more than $5 billion beyond what we collect. Add in the more than $1 billion already lost to fraud, and the message is unmistakable: we have a serious spending problem and major oversight failures that must be addressed.
We must continue to stand up for taxpayers, address the rampant fraud, and make sure every dollar is spent wisely. Minnesotans deserve leadership that focuses on solving problems here at home instead of pointing fingers at Washington or anyone else. It’s time to face reality and protect Minnesota’s future, and I’m ready to get to work next session to make that happen."
Breaking Down the Latest Forecast
The state currently projects a $2.465 billion surplus with strong reserves. However, spending is growing faster than tax revenues, leading to a projected $2.2 billion shortfall in FY 2026-27 and a $4.5 billion shortfall in FY 2028-29 if current laws remain unchanged.
A Long-Term Problem We Can’t Ignore
While the current budget balances, state spending is projected to outpace revenue for years to come if nothing changes.
Here is what MMB projects going forward:
• FY 2026–27: Minnesota will spend $2.2 billion more than it brings in
• FY 2028–29: That gap grows to $4.5 billion
This is not a one-year issue. It is a structural deficit, meaning Minnesota is on a path where spending continues rising faster than the revenue needed to pay for it.
What’s Driving These Costs?
Health and Human Services (HHS): up $1.4 billion
Most of the increased spending is concentrated in HHS where we've seen a substantial increase in the use of our public health and human service programs. Unless we intentionally prioritize these services for the children and vulnerable adults they were designed to support, this exponential growth in spending will continue to cost us dearly, often to the benefit of fraudsters and the expense of taxpayers and vulnerable Minnesotans.
Minnesotans Expect Better
Government should not spend money it does not have. When I talk to families across our district, the message is consistent:
Live within your means. Make smart choices. Protect the future.
That is exactly what I will continue to fight for at the Capitol. Honest budgeting, strong oversight, and responsible leadership are essential to protect taxpayers now and future generations later.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Session
We will get another budget forecast in February, which will set the stage for next year’s decisions. My focus for the 2026 Session:
> More accountability for state agencies
> Prioritize classrooms and public safety
> Rein in programs driving unsustainable growth
Minnesota has time to correct course, but only if we make the right decisions now.
Thank you for taking the time to stay informed. Your perspective and feedback guide the work I do every day. If you have questions or concerns, please reach out anytime. I am always eager to hear from you.
Please continue to reach out if I can be of any assistance to you. You can reach me by phone at 651-296-5185 or by email at [email protected].
Have a great weekend!
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