[1]Swing LeftSwing Left
Hi John,
We wanted to share a quick example of why our new canvassing program,
Ground Truth, matters—and the kind of impact this community can have if
we’re able to scale up this work heading into next year.
In 2024, Democrats lost a key battleground House race, Iowa’s 1st
Congressional District, by just 799 votes—a margin so thin that the right
voter contact program could’ve changed the outcome.
In that race, 45% of active voters in the district—about 207,000
people—were considered to be in the lowest third of Democratic support
scores. While Democratic field efforts typically ignore this group
completely, the reality is that to win, the Democrat needed to receive
10-15% of their total votes from this group of voters.
To close a 799-vote gap (and flip this seat to help win the House in
2026), Democrats would only need to shift support among this group of
“low-support” voters by a tiny fraction.
Even if only 1 in 5 voters in this group were reachable (~40k voters),
identifying and turning out just 2% of those reachable voters could’ve
changed the outcome of the race.
[ [link removed] ][IMG]
This case study is further proof that voter outreach needs to begin
earlier and include everyone. Because by engaging widely, we can identify
that important group of voters that is reachable and potentially
persuadable—who have been mislabeled or underrepresented in data
models—and successfully re-engage voters who feel overlooked.
That’s exactly what Ground Truth is meant to accomplish. Earlier this year
we piloted Ground Truth canvasses in select battleground districts across
the country, and last month we announced that we’re expanding the program
to all of our target districts nationwide.
But running a program like this—which emphasizes starting earlier than
ever and talking to every voter in swing districts—takes a lot of
resources, and we’re counting on support from this community to help make
it happen.
[ [link removed] ]Will you make a donation of $25, or any amount that works
for you, to help scale up Ground Truth across the country as we look
toward the midterms in 2026?
[ [link removed] ]Donate $25 Now
Thank you for your support,
The Swing Left Team
P.S. If you’d rather give your time to this program, that’s super
valuable, too. Whether you donate or not, we’d love for you to [ [link removed] ]join the
“Inside Ground Truth” national strategy call on December 9th, where we’ll
share more ways to get involved.
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