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Aftyn Behn, the TN state legislator and Democratic nominee in the just-completed TN07 special congressional election [ [link removed] ], lost by 8.9% last night. Yes. It’s a loss, but there are important lessons, including a hopeful-get-off-your-ass message from Santa. (He wants you to know he really loves Democracy btw!)
Like many important midterm races coming up in 2026, Behn was running in a red district (Trump+22) in a red state (Trump+29.7). Winning in places like this is now possible because it turns out that MAGA is a disaster for America. But in political strategy terms, winning these races requires firing up the right people, while not inflaming the divisive MAGA culture warring that has cost Dems since 2016. The good news is that much of that happened in TN, which is why the margin closed so much.
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Oh…I wish you could see Santa right now; his eyes are twinkling!
Anyway, he wants you to know that there are districts like this all across the nation. In fact, this TN race probably could have been won. So let’s start with the positive lessons…
First, Behn is a hard worker and a great communicator. She emits a magnetic intensity that’s difficult not to like. At 35, she’s always in motion. While she has no military experience, she gives off the air of a focused soldier, sharpened by the reality of ugly combat casualties among her fellow troops.
“This is ground zero,” she repeated with palpable intensity when I met her in Nashville last month. Behn went on to explain that her ground zero fights include organizing against well-publicized and undemocratic expulsions [ [link removed] ] in the TN Statehouse, personally confronting hideous Republican corruption [ [link removed] ], her battle to repeal the tax on groceries [ [link removed] ], vehemently opposing massive TN GOP giveaways to Elon Musk [ [link removed] ], the loss of healthcare for broad swaths of working people, and working to remedy the skyrocketing cost of living for her Tennessee constituents.
Santa wants you to know that everything you read above is spot-on perfect. It’s just what he and the elves need to see to make deliveries possible. In fact, EVERY SINGLE COUNTY in the TN07 district shifted blue. Here’s the map:
But that’s not enough, and here’s where the critical part of the lesson begins: Behn is impressive in many ways, but she also aggressively stepped into the Republican culture war traps. She’s a Gold Award Girl Scout who has also been arrested for her advocacy. She’s a former community healthcare organizer who is no fan of billionaires or what they are doing to Nashville. She’s endorsed by the Democratic Socialists and the AFL-CIO. She holds a master’s in social work and studied at the U.N. She’s disrupted ICE operations in Nashville and is proud of it. There are gems in there, but in total, that’s about as “Stereotypical Dem” as it gets.
In the very blue part of her district (that one county that contains part of Nashville), there’s nothing wrong with that bio. But this is a heavily gerrymandered congressional district that Trump won by 22% and that means that if the Republicans got scared, they would use all of that stereotyped Dem bio combined with culture war bullets and then fire them by the million to frighten and turnout their base in the rest of the district.
That’s just exactly what they did in the closing weeks of this election. One example of ammo they found is Behn’s past calls to defund police and past statements that included tweets like “Good morning, especially to the 54% of Americans that believe burning down a police station is justified.”
Even with that, Behn made it a contest, and her economic message, combined with the fact that she is a sharp-elbowed fighter, forced Republicans into an embarrassing, expensive rescue mission involving millions of dollars in a district where they didn’t think they’d have to spend a penny. She even forced the Speaker of the House and Trump himself into direct involvement. As proof of the GOP skittishness, national Republicans hastily prepared a Nashville rally where, on Monday, Mike Johnson, looking just as creepy as he always does, held his phone to the mic and Trump’s voice blared desperation to the speakers:
“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district. It’s gotta show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been. We have a bigger, stronger party than we’ve ever had. We have more members of the Republican Party than we’ve ever had, and we love Tennessee.”
Behn pounded the economic message and worked hard enough that some polls had the race nearly tied in the closing weeks. But she had not shown voters in the non-Nashville part of her district why she was different than the farthest left boogeymen they’d been warned about. She had also given Republicans just enough ammo to nationalize the race with millions targeting the same voters who elected Trump and other Republicans in past cycles, and it worked.
I get it, you probably don’t live in TN, and you might be frustrated with me now because I am highlighting the need to stay the hell away from the culture warring. You may be gritting your teeth about the need for justice and higher principles.
Here’s the deal: the principle that matters in electoral politics is “losers go home while winners govern.” For the sake of our country, we must win and govern in several “red” districts. So here’s Santa’s hopeful holiday lesson: the same economic anger and MAGA betrayal that propelled Aftyn Behn to tie this race also exist everywhere across this nation, including where you live.
Taking back the house in ‘26 is incredibly important. It will impact almost everything you care about. Healthcare, Public Lands, Rule of Law, Climate, Corruption, the price of reindeer feed; it’s all on the line in this upcoming election.
Santa (looking at you over his glasses now) says it’s time to talk about this over family dinners this holiday season. The truth is that you don’t have to love Democrats to help with what can and must be done in ‘26. Maybe you are a Republican who just wants a return to sanity, or perhaps you are dismayed at the chaos, tariffs, or cruelty, but have been reluctant to vote FOR a Dem. Maybe you don’t like Biden, or maybe you think MAGA will just fix itself. Newsflash! That’s not going to happen. It’s time to take the excellent advice of Sarah Longwell, a former Republican consultant and founder of the xxxxxx:
“The only way to get our politics to return to normal is for Republicans to endure sustained electoral defeats.”
Longwell is right; if you want to return to anything resembling normal, then defeating MAGA Republicans is the only way. If you join us, you’ll get presents from Santa too!
Everyone needs to help, and I know you have energy because a lot of you have sent me questions after reading my updates about particularly horrible policies or appointments from the Trump administration. They all go something like: “What can I do?” Well, here’s your answer: Be an evangelist, a funder, and a volunteer for winning back the House in ‘26!”
Don’t wait for the DC instruction. Forget the slow-motion lethargy of the National Dems and their acronymed committees. It’s time to double-spike your eggnog and get about making a difference in races all across the country yourself.
Santa wants you to think big! We are going to win some surprising races. Remember, Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterms because, ahem, they dared to improve healthcare for millions of Americans through the ACA. If improving healthcare costs a party 63 seats, what the hell is the price for this disaster?
Santa is so damn tired of hushed tones from DC about maybe winning a few seats. The emerging political reality highlighted by what almost happened in TN07 means we can defeat scores of Republicans who have been VERY bad boys and girls; real villains who should be sent away like the ghost of Christmas past.
And just so you have an idea about how big this map is, here’s the list of the 100 most vulnerable Republican House incumbents, along with the political rating of their districts. If you need motivation, think about their votes on public lands, on cutting healthcare, and SNAP for millions. Think about them looking away from the destruction at the DOJ and cheering on the Trump crypto corruption. Think of them voting to confirm incompetent fools like Hegseth or Howard Nutlick. Then note that all but one of them are in MORE competitive districts than Aftyn Behn’s just-completed TN-07.
NE-02 Don Bacon R D+3
NY-17 Mike Lawler R D+1
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick R D+1
VA-02 Jen Kiggans R EVEN
NJ-07 Thomas Kean Jr. R EVEN
CO-08 Gabe Evans R EVEN
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani R EVEN
MI-07 Tom Barrett R EVEN
CA-22 David Valadao R R+1
CA-40 Young Kim R R+1
AZ-01 David Schweikert R R+1
PA-07 Ryan MacKenzie R R+1
CA-03 Kevin Kiley R R+2
IA-03 Zach Nunn R R+2
WI-01 Bryan Steil R R+2
CA-41 Ken Calvert R R+2
PA-10 Scott Perry R R+3
MI-04 Bill Huizenga R R+3
OH-10 Mike Turner R R+3
MI-10 John James R R+3
VA-01 Rob Wittman R R+3
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden R R+3
PA-08 Rob Bresnahan R R+4
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks R R+4
MO-02 Ann Wagner R R+4
NY-01 Nick LaLota R R+4
OH-15 Mike Carey R R+4
IA-02 Ashley Hinson R R+4
FL-15 Laurel Lee R R+5
CO-03 Jeff Hurd R R+5
CO-05 Jeff Crank R R+5
NC-11 Chuck Edwards R R+5
OH-07 Max Miller R R+5
FL-04 Aaron Bean R R+5
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna R R+5
MT-01 Ryan Zinke R R+5
NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew R R+5
FL-07 Cory Mills R R+5
WA-05 Michael Baumgartner R R+5
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar R R+6
NY-02 Andrew Garbarino R R+6
VA-05 John McGuire R R+6
MN-01 Brad Finstad R R+6
SC-01 Nancy Mace R R+6
NE-01 Mike Flood R R+6
AK-AL Nick Begich R R+6
GA-12 Rick Allen R R+7
NC-07 David Rouzer R R+7
SC-02 Joe Wilson R R+7
AZ-02 Eli Crane R R+7
NV-02 Mark Amodei R R+7
TX-23 Tony Gonzales R R+7
MN-08 Pete Stauber R R+7
FL-16 Vern Buchanan R R+7
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz R R+7
KY-06 Andy Barr R R+7
FL-21 Brian Mast R R+7
CA-48 Darrell Issa R R+7
TX-24 Beth Van Duyne R R+7
FL-11 Daniel Webster R R+8
AR-02 French Hill R R+8
GA-01 Buddy Carter R R+8
CA-23 Jay Obernolte R R+8
NC-14 Tim Moore R R+8
NC-09 Richard Hudson R R+8
AZ-08 Abe Hamadeh R R+8
WI-08 Tony Wied R R+8
FL-02 Neal Dunn R R+8
TN-05 Andy Ogles R R+8
WI-06 Glenn Grothman R R+8
MD-01 Andy Harris R R+8
CA-05 Tom McClintock R R+8
IN-05 Victoria Spartz R R+8
NC-13 Brad Knott R R+8
NC-06 Addison McDowell R R+9
NC-05 Virginia Foxx R R+9
OH-14 David Joyce R R+9
NC-10 Pat Harrigan R R+9
OK-05 Stephanie Bice R R+9
CO-04 Lauren Boebert R R+9
TX-22 Troy Nehls R R+9
TX-03 Keith Self R R+10
NC-08 Mark Harris R R+10
KS-02 Derek Schmidt R R+10
AZ-05 Andy Biggs R R+10
FL-03 Kat Cammack R R+10
MN-06 Tom Emmer R R+10
NY-21 Elise Stefanik R R+10
UT-03 Mike Kennedy R R+10
UT-02 Celeste Maloy R R+10
FL-05 John Rutherford R R+10
WA-04 Dan Newhouse R R+10
TX-38 Wesley Hunt R R+10
NY-23 Nick Langworthy R R+10
NY-11 Nicole Malliotakis R R+10
UT-01 Blake Moore R R+10
FL-28 Carlos A. Giménez R R+10
NC-03 Greg Murphy R R+10

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