Policy Currents The newsletter for policy people
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** Dec. 2, 2025
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China Is Trying to Boost Fertility. It’s Not Working
China's population is aging rapidly, and its birth rate is declining. These trends have resulted in a shrinking workforce and growing pressure on social services. In response, Beijing has rolled out a series of pronatalist policies.
A new RAND study finds that these efforts have been unevenly implemented and largely ineffective. This shows the limits of government attempts to influence family decisionmaking.
These findings have implications for the United States, where fertility rates are also declining. Rather than trying to increase the population's desire to have children, it may be more effective to help those who already want to grow their families. Such an approach might include removing structural barriers by improving access to affordable child care and housing.
As the authors write, "The United States should learn from China's failed pronatalist policy."
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What AI Could Mean for Productivity Growth
What can history teach us about how AI might shape productivity growth? In a new paper, RAND's Tobias Sytsma explores past technological shifts, such as electricity and the internet, to see whether AI may follow the same path. He also considers how federal funding can help translate new technologies into productivity gains. "Productivity's relationship with technological change is more complex than simply adopting new tools and watching output rise," Sytsma writes.
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NATO's Electromagnetic “Blind Spot”
Electromagnetic warfare--an invisible battlespace where communications are jammed, drones are blinded, and precision weapons are thrown off course--is not new. But while NATO countries deprioritized this domain in the 1990s and 2000s, postSoviet Russia continued to invest in new electromagnetic capabilities. RAND Europe experts warn that the alliance cannot afford to lag behind in this critical area; NATO's response to Moscow's advantage must be "fast and visible."
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** RAND Recommends
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- Most clicked last week: a new RAND study looks at why so many young Americans are disconnected--not in school, training, or work.
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- This new RAND report assesses how regional partnerships can address workforce development challenges in rural parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
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- RAND's Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program is open to post-doctoral students, tenure-track junior faculty, and doctoral students studying nuclear security. Apply by December 15.
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** Learn Policy Analysis from RAND Experts
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