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New Analysis: Why Are Asylum Approval Rates Plummeting? ([link removed])
The politics behind the plunge
Washington, D.C. (December 1, 2025) – A new Center for Immigration Studies report ([link removed]) examines why asylum grant rates have fallen dramatically – from 51 percent approvals in February 2024 to just 19 percent by August 2025, the lowest level in three decades.

While the decline aligns with long-recognized concerns over widespread asylum fraud, the report, authored by the Center's senior legal fellow George Fishman, emphasizes that the drop began months before President Trump’s second inauguration, suggesting deeper institutional and political forces at work.

“Elections shape immigration enforcement in ways the public rarely sees. When administrations change course, or when an incumbent administration panics on account of upcoming elections, immigration judges respond. The data show that asylum adjudications don’t occur in a vacuum; they reflect the philosophies, fidelity to the text of the Immigration and Nationality Act, and anxieties of those in power,” said Fishman.

Key findings include:
* Timing matters: Asylum approvals held steady at around 50 percent through early 2024, then suddenly began falling in spring 2024, well before Trump's inauguration, with the decline accelerating sharply after June 2024.
* Biden-era policies don’t explain the trend (even assuming for the sake of argument that they were successful, as the Biden administration claimed): Most cases decided in late 2024 and early 2025 involved migrants apprehended before the Circumvention of Lawful Pathways (CLAP) rule or the 2024 Securing the Border Initiative took effect.
* Biden's large-scale parole programs allowed weak cases in: None of the Biden administration’s categorical parole programs required any likelihood of asylum eligibility, contributing to a docket full of bogus or unmeritorious claims.
* Credibility challenges remain central: With limited or no corroborating evidence required, immigration judges rely heavily on credibility findings – and many claims simply don’t hold up.
* Administrative priorities shape outcomes: Average asylum grant rates have shifted significantly with each administration, showing that the executive branch can strongly influence asylum outcomes.

Fishman also points to two underappreciated drivers of the drop in the rate of approvals:
* 2024 election-year panic within the Biden and Harris campaigns, coinciding with the steepest drop in approvals.
* Attorney General decisions that modify the interpretation of key statutory terms, historically causing swift shifts in grant rates.

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