Tomorrow (Wednesday 26 November) sees two events of significance to smokers and vapers.

One is the Budget, and the inevitable increase in tobacco duty. (A vape tax is also due to be introduced in October 2026.) The other is what is expected to be the sixth and final sitting of a grand committee in the House of Lords whose members have been considering and debating amendments to the Tobacco and Vapes Bill.

As you know, the Bill includes proposals to ban the sale of tobacco to all future generations of adults, and further restrict the sale and marketing of vapes. We are immensely grateful therefore to those peers who have spent many hours in committee opposing the more egregious policies and tabling amendments.

We won't list them all but special thanks to Baroness Fox of Buckley (above), director of the Academy of Ideas, who has done a magnificent job standing up for smokers and vapers. Shortly before the committee stage in the Lords she spoke for many people when she wrote:

'The worry is that ever-greater steps towards prohibition not only restrict our choices but also threaten to bring all the familiar side effects of prohibition: illegal sales, declining tax revenues and, most worryingly, violence and intimidation. This is already happening in Australia thanks to high taxation. Do we really want that here, too?'

After committee, the Bill will move on to the report stage followed by the third reading of the Bill in the Lords, after which it will return to the Commons.

So far the Government has rejected all amendments. There may yet be a twist in the tale, however, because reports suggest that, if the Government tries to introduce the generational ban in Northern Ireland, it could bring the UK into conflict with the European Union because the Bill is not compliant with the Windsor Framework and could therefore break EU law.

The irony is that Brexit gave the UK the opportunity to repeal or amend some of the many over-reaching regulations imposed by Brussels. Instead, since Brexit, successive UK governments have chosen to introduce a prohibitionist policy on tobacco that is far more restrictive than anything imposed by the EU.

Meanwhile the Government has issued a call for evidence to support legislation on tobacco and vapes. If you have any relevant knowledge and experience and wish to contribute, click here. The consultation closes at 11:59pm on December 3, 2025.

See: Freedom goes up in smoke – again (Claire Fox)

Prohibitionist madness

Coinciding with the start of the committee stage of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in the House of Lords, Forest published a new paper, The Price of Prohibition.

Written by Rob Lyons, former deputy editor of Spiked and author of several previous Forest reports, the 4,000-word paper addresses the possible impact of a generational ban on retail crime and the black market. It also considers the potential for the type of tobacco turf wars we have seen in Australia as a result of punitive taxation and restrictions on the sale of vapes.

Writing for Spiked earlier this month, Rob warned that the Bill 'won’t stop people smoking, but it will be a boon to organised crime'. (See The Tobacco and Vapes Bill is prohibitionist madness.)

The Price of Prohibition can be downloaded here.

Public health versus the people

Late last month we also published the results of a series of polls that were carried out in August and September.

Conducted by Yonder Consulting for Forest, each survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of at least 2,000 adults online. The most notable results were:

• Three out of five respondents (59%) believe that individuals who are legally adults at 18 should be permitted to purchase cigarettes and other tobacco products.
   
• Given a choice of keeping the legal age of sale of tobacco at 18, raising it to 21, or introducing a generational ban, a majority (58%) support alternatives to a generational ban.
   
• A majority (57%) believe that a generational ban will drive MORE consumers to the black market and other sources of illegal tobacco. Only 13% believe it will not have that impact.
   
• A significant majority (67%) believe that purchasing illegal tobacco is an understandable response from consumers faced with the high cost of tobacco bought legally in the UK. Only 21% think it is not understandable.
   
• The public believe that government has more pressing priorities than tackling smoking – improving the health service, for example, or tackling the cost of living. Given a list of ten issues, ‘tackling smoking’ came last.
   
• According to respondents, the most important bills currently progressing through the UK Parliament are the Crime and Policing Bill, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, and the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill. The Tobacco and Vapes Bill and the House of Lords (Hereditary) Bill are considered the least important.

See: Public Attitudes to Tackling Smoking and the Tobacco and Vapes Bill

ONS: Vapers now outnumber smokers in the UK

According to the latest Office for National Statistics' figures on adult smoking habits, the proportion of the adult population in the UK who smoke cigarettes fell to 10.6 per cent (5.3 million) in 2024.

Responding to the new figures, Forest director Simon Clark said, "Smoking rates have been falling for decades, largely because people have been educated about the health risks. 

"More recently, products such as vapes and nicotine pouches have provided reduced risk alternatives to cigarettes, encouraging millions of smokers to switch and quit voluntarily."

Warning the government not to raise the age of sale to drive smoking rates lower, he added, "People are fed up of government dictating how they live their lives, and further intervention could do more harm than good."

Our response was reported by the Press Association, Telegraph, Daily Mail, The National, London Standard, and Convenience Store, to name a few. 

You can read Forest's full response here. 

Hungary for more

Forest director Simon Clark was interviewed recently by Tobacco magazine in Hungary. It appeared in two parts – in the October and November print editions, and online.

In the first part he shared his thoughts on Forest’s goals and the UK’s current tobacco policies. In the second he discussed Forest's legitimacy, the consequences of the war on smoking, and the political context of smokers’ rights.

You can read part one here, and part two here.



Budget news

With the nation distracted by the many tax-raising measures likely to be included in the Budget, a further inflation-busting hike in tobacco duty might not get the attention it deserves.

Nevertheless, in advance of the Chancellor's big day, The Sun forecast that, under the current tobacco escalator (inflation plus two per cent), an average pack of 20 cigarettes could cost in excess of £17.50, with a 30g pouch of rolling tobacco edging towards £30.

Invited to respond, Forest director Simon Clark said an above-inflation hike in tobacco duty will "discriminate against consumers" from poorer backgrounds, driving some people further into poverty. "It will also fuel illicit trade, costing the Treasury billions of pounds in lost revenue."



Commenting on the new vape tax that could add £2.20 to the price of a 10ml bottle of e-liquid when it's introduced in October 2026, he added:

"If the government wants to reduce smoking rates, why would you increase the cost of the most popular smoking cessation tool. Applying what is effectively a sin tax on vaping will not only create a black market, the message it sends could discourage many smokers from switching to a significantly reduced risk product."

See: How much a packet of cigarettes will rise to revealed if Rachel Reeves continues with hike in Budget (The Sun)

A 40-a-day smoker writes

Still on the subject of the Budget, we were interested to read the views of Daily Mail columnist Tom Utley (pictured below at our Smoke On The Water event last year):

All I will say, as a 40-a-day addict, is that I now pay the Treasury some £9,000 a year in tobacco taxes alone. I don't see why so many non-smokers seem to feel that I'm costing them money. Just lately, however, overall tax revenues from tobacco have been falling steadily – from £10.19 billion in 2021 to a forecast £7.96 billion in 2029-30.

Among other factors, including 'changing attitudes to smoking and the increasing popularity of vapes', the OBR blames 'falling cigarette consumption driven by above-inflation duty rises'.

With that warning in mind, I reckon that a sensible Chancellor who was desperate for cash might think twice before reducing Government revenues further by imposing yet another inflation-busting increase in the price of cigarettes.

He's right, of course, but is the Chancellor listening?

See: As a 40-a-day smoker who pays £9,000 in tobacco taxes a year (yes, I know, I know) here’s my message to the Chancellor ... (Daily Mail)

Ireland: Budget 2026 and other issues

Over in Ireland Forest's response to Budget 2026 – which pushed the cost of a pack of 20 cigarettes of the most popular brands to almost €19 for the first time – was to declare it "unfair" on law-abiding consumers and retailers in Ireland.

Our reaction, reported by RTE, the Irish Times, Irish Independent, Irish Sun, Irish Mirror, and the Irish Star, included the point that:

"Purchased legally, tobacco costs more in Ireland than any other country in Europe. This latest tax hike, while relatively modest compared to last year, will drive even more smokers to the black market. Alternatively, many will buy their tobacco abroad where the cost is often significantly cheaper than at home."

Two weeks ago the Irish Daily Mail reported, somewhat mischievously, that 'Smoking' rates barely fall as vapes replace cigarettes'. In fact, as the report subsequently acknowledged, smoking rates HAVE fallen in Ireland – from 23% in 2015 to 17% in 2025 – but, as in the UK, a substantial number have quit by switching to vapes. Invited to comment, we pointed out that: 

"Children must be protected but if adults choose to smoke or vape, that must be respected. Government policy should focus not on forcing people to quit nicotine but on educating them about the relative risks of smoking and vaping."

Talking of vapes, Forest director Simon Clark recently appeared on WLR FM in Waterford and Ocean FM in Sligo having been invited to discuss the new vape tax that took effect in Ireland on 1 November.

And finally ...

Earlier this month Forest director Simon Clark was a guest on Last Orders, the anti-nanny state podcast.

Hosted by Tom Slater, editor of the online magazine Spiked, and Chris Snowdon, head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, they discussed the public health industry's war on nicotine (and consumers), the 'myth' of fat kids, and the long history of political bias on the BBC.

To watch the 40-minute podcast click here or on the image below.