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President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will sell F-35 combat aircraft to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia comes at a crucial geopolitical moment. America’s principal rival, the People’s Republic of China, is embedding itself in the industrial, technological, and military ecosystems of nations around the globe—particularly in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia is a key example. Beijing has been deeply involved in supplying the kingdom with armaments, especially missile and drone warfare assets, for at least a decade. Because of these ties, Washington has thus far declined to sell the kingdom leading-edge platforms like the F-35.
But Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has signaled that he will not depend solely on the United States for its security—and that if Washington hesitates, Riyadh will pursue other avenues. Fortunately for the White House, the right deal to provide Riyadh with the F-35 can advance multiple US strategic interests:
- Outcompeting China in the quest for long-term influence over the region’s militaries and weapons markets.
- Boosting the capabilities of Washington’s Gulf Arab partners to counter Iran.
- Preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge in a worsening threat landscape.
In a new Hudson policy memo, Can Kasapoğlu explains how. His key takeaways are below.
Key Insights
1. A deal would help prevent the Saudis from hedging toward China.
Beijing has publicly signaled that its ostensible fifth-generation competitor to the F-35, the J-20 stealth fighter, remains under strict export restrictions. But the strategic situation is fluid. If China’s leadership sees a chance to score a strategic victory over the United States, those export barriers could quickly fall. If the White House balks at the deal, it risks ceding strategic ground to Beijing in the Gulf’s most strategically vital market. On the other hand, an F-35 sale could anchor Riyadh in the US-led security architecture for the foreseeable future.
2. Washington needs capable Gulf partners to help counter Iran.
The F-35’s stealth and information superiority capabilities would dramatically shift the Saudi-Iranian balance of power. The aircraft’s ability to operate deep in nonpermissive airspace and overcome layered air defense architectures would allow Saudi Arabia to threaten the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ missile sites, drone nests, command hubs, and other critical infrastructure. Having an allied F-35 detachment in the Gulf would allow the US to respond even more forcefully to future Iranian aggression, enhancing deterrence.
3. Israel will seek to enhance ties while maintaining a qualitative military edge.
Israel’s position on the Saudi acquisition of the F-35—conditional openness tied to normalization of relations—reflects a recognition that outright rejection is no longer politically or militarily sustainable. But the Israeli defense establishment nonetheless realizes that safeguards, restrictions, and political reciprocity will best preserve its qualitative edge and serve its strategic interests.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
Many in the West believe that Israel’s unilateral operations to destroy terror groups in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have weakened the Jewish state by making it an international pariah.
But Saudi Arabia—a vocal supporter of Palestine in international institutions—appears willing to normalize ties with Israel, contradicting these narratives.
In Mosaic, Zineb Riboua explains what Western analysts often miss: that Middle Eastern regimes make decisions based on hard power and military success rather than symbolic or moral issues.
Caroline Glick, international affairs advisor to the prime minister of Israel, joined Michael Doran to discuss Israel’s position in global affairs, regional developments, and the international challenges shaping the country’s strategic environment.
Watch the event, listen to the podcast, or read the transcript here.
