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Week of November 17, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
Contradictory signals about the possibility of renewed talks between Iran and the United States continue to surface. Kamal Kharrazi, senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, insisted in an interview with CNN this week that Washington must take the first step if any diplomatic breakthrough is to occur. Kharrazi said Tehran is “eager to resume direct negotiations,” while stressing that Iran’s position remains exactly the same as it was before Israel’s attack on Iranian territory earlier this summer. He emphasized that “the United States must make the first move to show it is ready to engage under the conditions we define… based on equal footing and mutual respect.” Kharrazi added that Donald Trump “does not believe in diplomacy” and prefers coercion, underscoring Iran’s deep distrust of Washington’s intentions.
Kharrazi summarized Tehran’s position clearly: Washington must initiate any new talks, Iran’s position has not changed, the United States does not genuinely believe in diplomatic engagement, any negotiation would focus on the “level of enrichment” and not the existence of enrichment. He reiterated that uranium enrichment in Iran will resume, and that the missile program—currently expanding—will remain non-negotiable. Addressing Trump directly, he said: “Begin with a positive approach toward Iran. If it is positive, we will respond positively. But for this to happen, the United States must refrain from any use of force against Iran.”
Trump, speaking on November 18 at the White House while hosting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, claimed that “Iran does want to make a deal, I can say I think they very badly want to make a deal. I am totally open to it. We’re talking to them, and we started a process, but it would be a nice thing to have a deal with Iran. We could have done it before the war, but that didn’t work out…they may say something else, but they would very much like to have a deal.”
Trump’s comments during his joint appearance with Bin Salman further heightened controversy. He told the crown prince: “We removed the nuclear black cloud from your country. Its name was Iran and its nuclear capability, and we removed it quickly and powerfully.” He hinted that diplomatic developments could occur “this week.” These remarks came only hours after Iran’s Foreign Ministry again insisted that no negotiation process is underway.
Adding to the back and forth, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Seyed Esmail Baghaei rejected Trump’s assertions entirely, saying at a November 19 press briefing that “there is currently no negotiation process between Iran and the United States.” He added that there is no justification for negotiating with a party that openly boasts about military aggression against Iran and seeks to dictate its demands. Baghaei also dismissed reports that a letter from President Masoud Pezeshkian to MBS was linked to U.S.–Iran discussions, clarifying that the message merely expressed Iran’s gratitude to Saudi Arabia for services provided to Iranian pilgrims.
This dispute unfolds in the aftermath of the 12-day Iran–Israel war, after which Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi argued that “the first missile launched by the U.S. and Israel hit the negotiation table,” effectively collapsing diplomacy. Araghchi said the war demonstrated that Iran’s nuclear issue cannot be resolved militarily, and that renewed requests for negotiation with Iran have begun because Washington failed to achieve its goals through force.
Regarding the June attack, Araghchi acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear facilities were damaged, but emphasized instead that “facilities can be destroyed, but knowledge and resolve cannot be bombed away.” He argued that despite the attack, Iran has restored its capabilities, is now militarily stronger than before June 13, and that its strengthened defensive readiness now serves as a deterrent to further conflict.
Araghchi also emphasized that Iran has never abandoned diplomacy, while the United States has repeatedly violated it—first by quitting the 2015 nuclear deal despite Iran’s compliance, and later by launching military strikes just two days before the sixth round of negotiations. He insisted that the United States cannot obtain through negotiation what it failed to achieve through war, and that true diplomacy requires respect, reciprocity, and the end of coercive dictation.
Despite the public contradictions, the broader picture suggests that the diplomatic file remains open, that Washington and Tehran continue to signal through intermediaries, and that Saudi Arabia—through the MBS–Trump channel—may be assuming a growing role in shaping the trajectory of future U.S.–Iran engagement. Iran’s official position, however, remains unchanged: any reopening of talks requires a U.S. initiative, must be based on equality and mutual respect, and will be limited exclusively to nuclear issues, with enrichment rights and missile capabilities remaining strictly non-negotiable.
A renewed wildfire in the Hyrcanian forests of Elit in Chalous County has entered its sixth consecutive day, prompting the deployment of helicopters, a large Il-76 water-bomber aircraft, and dozens of emergency crews as authorities describe the incident as “one of the most complex firefighting operations in recent years.” New images published by Iranian media show vast sections of the steep, rocky forests engulfed in thick smoke, with visibility so low that water-dropping helicopters were forced to halt operations on Thursday due to heavy smoke.
The ancient Hyrcanian (Caspian) forests are a UNESCO-listed natural heritage site, stretching over 850 kilometers along the southern Caspian coast and the northern slopes of the Alborz Mountains, with an estimated age of 25 to 50 million years. Environmental experts warn that prolonged drought and reduced rainfall have extended the wildfire season in both the Zagros and Hyrcanian regions, making repeated late-autumn fires increasingly likely.
The fire, located in the high elevations above Marzan-Abad and roughly six kilometers from Elit village, has proven unusually persistent. The first fire ignited on November 1, where it was reportedly contained within the first 24 hours. However, on November 15 the fire reignited, this time far more intense and widespread. Fire behavior has shifted rapidly over the following days: November 16 saw the flames push south and east. By November 17, the fire had shrunk to two hotspots on the eastern side, and on November 18 no visible flames remained. However, on November 19 and 20, the fire flared up again, expanding toward the north and east. On November 21, the blaze was active in two large but separate zones.
Local officials emphasize that the steep cliffs, sharp inclines, and highly inaccessible terrain have significantly slowed suppression efforts. According to the Head of Mazandaran’s Crisis Management Department, the situation demands “extraordinary logistical and technical coordination,” as firefighters and volunteers must be transported by air to reach the burning ridges. The ongoing fire in the forests around Elit was preceded by a November 1 fire, which was contained after several days.
Mazandaran’s governor, Mehdi Younesi Rostami, said during a site visit on Friday that 20 members of the Nature Volunteer Forces have been injured in the past six days while attempting to control the fire. Firefighting capacity has increased. Five helicopters are now assisting operations, four dedicated to water drops and one for heli-lift and personnel transport. In addition, a 40-ton water-carrying Il-76 aircraft was dispatched from Tehran and has already released its first payload over the fire zone. Officials say the aircraft may return to Tehran multiple times for water loading, depending on conditions.
In contrast with the scale of the response, Mehrdad Khazaei, the head of Nowshahr’s Natural Resources Department, attributed the cause to “human factors,” insisting that “the Hyrcanian fire is under control” and that “there is no need for non-specialist volunteers.” His remarks stand out given the repeated reignition of the fire and the heavy involvement of civilian teams.
The ongoing blaze underscores rising concerns about climate vulnerability, insufficient forest protection, and the growing frequency of human-related ignitions in one of Iran’s most ecologically significant and fragile ecosystems.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors has adopted a new resolution pressing Iran to provide immediate clarity on the status of its enriched uranium stockpile and to grant inspectors full access to nuclear facilities damaged in recent U.S. and Israeli attacks. The resolution, drafted by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, passed with 19 votes in favor, 12 abstentions, and three opposition votes from Russia, China, and Niger, and calls on Iran to “without delay” inform the Agency of the condition of its enriched uranium reserves and respond to longstanding safeguards questions.
Tehran’s reaction was swift and categorical. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Iran is terminating the Cairo Agreement, the cooperation framework he negotiated with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on 9 September in Cairo.
The Cairo agreement—mediated by Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty—laid out a procedure for oversight and monitoring of Iranian sites. The agreement was already effectively suspended as a result of the snapback of UN Security Council Resolutions on Iran, and may not have been salvageable.
Araghchi said the latest resolution has rendered the understanding “nullified and ended,” and confirmed that an official letter was delivered to Grossi stating that the deal “is no longer valid.” Araghchi accused the United States and the three European states of “undermining the independence and credibility of the Agency” and argued that their actions ignored Iran’s cooperation and damaged the basis of engagement. Araghchi added that Iran “will only cooperate regarding facilities that were not bombed”, and only within the standard framework of safeguards.
Iran’s broader argument centers on the consequences of the U.S.–Israeli strikes on its nuclear infrastructure. Iranian officials maintain that the attacks destroyed centrifuges, equipment, and stored materials that were part of a civilian program, leaving the country without any practical or operational enrichment capacity. According to Tehran, parts of its nuclear material and components are physically inaccessible because they were destroyed or buried during the attacks. Iran therefore argues that it cannot produce detailed technical reports on stockpiles it no longer controls and that the responsibility for this situation lies with the states that carried out the airstrikes. In this view, the resolution demands information that is technically impossible to provide under current conditions.
Tehran also rejects the resolution’s requirement that inspectors be granted access to the bombed sites. Iranian officials argue that these locations, having been transformed into active military and security zones, no longer constitute standard nuclear facilities subject to routine inspections. Allowing IAEA access, they contend, would effectively legitimize the attacks and compromise Iran’s security. Araghchi reiterated that cooperation will continue “only at facilities that were not bombed.”
A central element of Iran’s position is the longstanding allegation that IAEA-sourced information was leaked to Israel, enabling attacks on Iranian nuclear centers and contributing to the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. Iranian officials argue that the Agency failed in its obligation to protect sensitive data, and that these breaches justify strict limitations on inspector access. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, argued this week that the precision of one of Israel’s strikes during the 12-day war could only be explained by the “misuse” of information that was “in the possession of the IAEA.” Eslami, referring to Israel’s attack on the “fuel plate production facility of the Tehran Research Reactor,” stated that “only the laboratory room was targeted — the very room that had been equipped with the Agency’s cooperation.”
This claim forms a crucial part of Iran’s argument that the resolution is politically motivated, not technically grounded, and that its implementation could endanger Iran’s national security. Yet, it also seems possible that Israel obtained this information by other means, including informants or hacking of Iranian systems.
Iran’s representative to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, called the resolution an “illegal action” and stressed that it would not alter the current level of safeguards implementation, though he warned that the decision “will have consequences.” The Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, had earlier signaled that the passage of such a resolution would lead Tehran to undertake “fundamental policy revisions.” In remarks to KhabarOnline, Araghchi added that Iran would never accept “zero enrichment,” calling enrichment a matter of national pride and national dignity.
The resolution builds on earlier Board actions. On 12 June 2025, the Board passed a resolution declaring that Iran had not fully cooperated with safeguards investigations, raising issues that could justify referral to the UN Security Council. While the European trio and the United States initially suggested they would pursue such a referral in September, they have thus far abstained from such action.
Following the latest vote, Iran joined Russia, Belarus, China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe in a joint statement condemning the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and arguing that the international community should first address these violations before demanding additional access from Iran. Meanwhile, Director General Grossi insisted that the Agency must clarify “immediately” the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and reaffirmed the need for inspectors to verify the location and condition of nuclear material.
The adoption of the resolution and Iran’s termination of the Cairo Agreement mark a continuation of the tense standoff between Tehran and the Agency. While the IAEA seeks greater clarity and access to uphold the global non-proliferation system, Iran argues that the Agency cannot demand cooperation without addressing the military attacks on its facilities, the destruction of its equipment, the loss of access to stockpiled materials, and the alleged security breaches involving Israel. The confrontation underscores the gap between technical expectations and political realities, continuing the deep mistrust, limited verification, and ongoing regional tension shaping the nuclear file.
Iran has released the Marshall Islands–flagged tanker Talara after five days of detention in the Persian Gulf. Columbia Shipmanagement confirmed that all 21 crew members were released unharmed and that the tanker is now free to resume normal operations, yet the brief seizure highlights how geopolitical tensions are impacting maritime security in the region.
The tanker was intercepted on 14 November while sailing in international waters from Sharjah to Singapore with a cargo of high-sulphur gasoil. Communication with the vessel was cut shortly before it was diverted approximately 37 kilometers off Khorfakkan into Iranian waters and anchored near Bandar Abbas. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps acknowledged the seizure, accusing the ship of carrying “unauthorized cargo” and citing a judicial order. In recent years, Iran has repeatedly detained commercial vessels under similar claims, ranging from alleged smuggling to technical violations.
This latest incident occurs amid growing pressure from the United States on Iran’s oil-export infrastructure. Several weeks ago, all Iranian oil tankers suddenly activated their AIS transponders, an extremely unusual event. Analysts speculated that this may have resulted from a cyber operation, interpreted by some as a signal that Washington may be preparing new actions against Iran’s oil exports. Around the same period, a tanker believed to be linked to Iran was attacked in the Red Sea, further heightening Tehran’s sense of vulnerability.
The timing is also significant, with the seizure occurring a few days before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman traveled to Washington for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Per reports, bin Salman carried a letter from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to U.S. President Donald Trump, articulating that Iran remains open to dialogue but won’t violate its red lines.
Amid the 12 Day War in June, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, yet the conflict ended before any movement by Iran to act on threats to disrupt maritime trade. At a moment when the U.S. may be renewing efforts to restrict Iran’s oil exports, and backchannel discussions of negotiations appear to be ongoing, Iran appears to have sent a message with its seizure and release that it can disrupt maritime traffic when necessary and that it can respond to mounting pressure by asserting its influence in a key waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint: one-fifth of global crude oil, or roughly 20 million barrels per day, passes through a channel that narrows to just 40 kilometers. This corridor represents nearly $600 billion in annual energy trade. Any Iranian action affecting this transit route can significantly impact global energy markets, insurance premiums, and the naval presence of major powers. Even non-violent detentions like that of the Talara expose the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical pressures.
By releasing the tanker, Iran avoided a large-scale escalation while still delivering a symbolic display of authority. The message is clear: Iran is prepared to defend its interests and will not remain passive if it perceives a coordinated effort—through sanctions, cyber operations, attacks on Iranian-linked vessels, or military pressure—to target its economic lifelines. For governments, shippers, and energy markets, the Talara case illustrates how deterrence, escalation, and strategic messaging intersect in the Persian Gulf—and why the stability of this region will remain precarious as long as tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel persist.
Iran is experiencing one of the most severe drought cycles in decades, as record-low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and accelerating land subsidence converge into a nationwide environmental emergency. The crisis touches nearly every province and has pushed the capital, Tehran, into its most precarious water situation in modern memory. Officials warn that without substantial rainfall, the city may face formal water rationing and, in extreme cases, partial evacuation.
In a sign of growing desperation, authorities carried out cloud-seeding operations over Lake Urmia on November 15, spraying clouds with silver iodide and potassium iodide in an effort to trigger precipitation. Lake Urmia—once Iran’s largest lake—is now almost completely dry, replaced by vast salt flats. State media announced that further cloud-seeding missions will continue in East and West Azerbaijan provinces. According to the Iranian Meteorological Organization, rainfall this autumn is 89% below the long-term average, marking the driest fall in fifty years.
Yesterday, rain finally arrived in parts of western Iran, producing localized flooding in several drought-stricken provinces. The Meteorological Organization issued alerts for six western provinces and said rain was expected in 18 out of 31 provinces. Light showers and early snowfall reached northern Tehran. While welcome, experts emphasize the rainfall was far too limited to compensate for years of cumulative shortages.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that without meaningful rainfall, Tehran may need to implement water rationing—and could even be forced to evacuate residents from the worst-affected neighborhoods. Tehran relies on five main dams, yet at least one—Lar Dam—is described by operators as “practically dry.” Officials report that dams in Tehran, Markazi, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan are holding only a few percent of their designed capacity. Authorities have already begun nightly water-pressure reductions, with some areas experiencing hours-long cutoffs. The government is preparing penalties for high-consumption households and businesses.
Public anxiety is rising. Hundreds of residents had gathered at Imamzadeh Saleh in Shemiran last week to pray for rain—images that quickly circulated across Iranian media.
Drought has also strained Iran’s electricity sector. Falling hydropower output has increased reliance on fossil-fuel power plants, worsening air pollution and energy instability. During the summer of 2025, the government closed public offices repeatedly to conserve electricity—closures that disrupted businesses and deepened economic frustrations. Demand for household water-storage tanks has surged, straining supply.
Beyond immediate shortages, Iran faces irreversible environmental damage from decades of groundwater depletion. Experts estimate that more than 70% of Iran’s groundwater reserves have been lost since the 1970s. As aquifers collapse, the land sinks—a process now documented across 56,000 square kilometers (about 3.5% of the country). Subsidence is damaging roads, pipelines, farmlands, and increasingly, Iran’s most iconic heritage sites.
Around Persepolis and Naqsh-e Rostam, the surrounding plains are sinking by several hundred millimeters per year. Cracks have appeared less than 500 meters from the Persepolis platform, and one fissure has reportedly cut directly through the Ka‘ba-ye Zartosht. Similar risks threaten Pasargadae, historic districts of Isfahan and Yazd, and even the Trans-Iranian Railway, which UNESCO added to its World Heritage list in 2021.
Researchers warn that many impacts are irreversible, as compacted aquifers lose their storage capacity permanently. Subsidence in some parts of Tehran reaches up to 25 centimeters per year, while in Rafsanjan, home to major pistachio orchards, an estimated 300 million cubic meters of groundwater storage capacity is lost annually. According to Andrew Pearson of the International Groundwater Assessment Center, Iran is now one of the world’s largest groundwater consumers, with agriculture accounting for roughly 90% of all water use.
As conditions worsen, officials have revived discussion of transporting desalinated Persian Gulf water to Tehran via a 1,000-kilometer pipeline. Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi admitted the project is extremely costly and not economically viable, but argued that such measures must be considered “when human lives are at stake.” Other officials have called the pipeline the “only reliable long-term solution” for the capital, though financing and environmental challenges remain unresolved.
Iran’s water crisis now reaches far beyond meteorology. It is reshaping daily life, cultural preservation, infrastructure, and economic stability. The combination of historic drought, groundwater depletion, subsidence, declining hydropower capacity, isolated rainfall episodes, and mounting social anxiety has created a complex, multi-layered national emergency. Officials continue urging conservation and promising reforms, yet the scale of the crisis—from evaporating reservoirs to sinking archaeological plains—suggests that the country’s window for corrective action is narrowing rapidly. Without sustained rainfall and fundamental shifts in water management, yesterday’s rain may prove a temporary relief rather than the turning point Iran urgently needs.
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