Daily News Brief
July 15, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
Trump Ends Hong Kong’s Special Status
U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order ending Hong Kong’s preferential trading status (NYT) in response to China’s new national security law for the city. Tariffs on Chinese goods could now apply to Hong Kong exports (SCMP) and export license exceptions have been revoked.

The executive order also ends preferential treatment for Hong Kong passport holders, suspends the U.S. extradition agreement with Hong Kong, and terminates the Fulbright scholar program (Bloomberg) for China and Hong Kong. Trump also signed a separate piece of legislation, the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, requiring the imposition of sanctions on individuals and banks found to undermine Hong Kong’s independence. In a statement, China’s foreign ministry condemned the U.S. actions and said Beijing would retaliate with its own sanctions (SCMP)
Analysis
“Congress has authorized similar measures before, only to have the administration delay imposing them as it weighed other foreign policy considerations, including Mr. Trump’s signature trade deal with China,” Steven Lee Myers writes for the New York Times.

“Hong Kongers clearly treasure their freedoms and want their city to be a vibrant place to live and work for years to come. Washington’s goal should be to maintain Hong Kong’s positive status quo as much as possible, not to assist in its erosion,” Kurt Tong writes in Foreign Affairs

The University of Notre Dame’s Victoria Tin-bor Hui discusses the new national security law for Hong Kong on the latest episode of CFR’s The President’s Inbox podcast.

Pacific Rim
Chinese State Media Calls for Retaliation Against UK Over Huawei Ban
Chinese state media called for “public and painful” retaliation (Guardian) against the United Kingdom after the UK banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei from its 5G network.

South and Central Asia
Iran Moves Forward on Rail Project Without India
Tehran will fund a railway infrastructure project linking the Iranian cities of Chabahar and Zahedan without support from India (India Today), whose funding had been delayed by U.S. sanctions. Iranian government sources said India could rejoin the project, which will serve as the rail link to Iran’s sole oceanic port in the Gulf of Oman.

Afghanistan: An average of sixteen civilians were killed or wounded every day (RFE/RL) of the last six months, according to a report from the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission.

Middle East and North Africa
OPEC, Russia Expected to Ease Production Cuts
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will meet today. Analysts expect that they will agree to relax production cuts (Reuters) as the global economy slowly recovers from the pandemic crash.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at OPEC in a changing world.

Qatar: The International Court of Justice backed Qatar in its dispute with Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over an air blockade (Al Jazeera) the countries have imposed on Qatar since 2017. The court ruled that the International Civil Aviation Organization has jurisdiction to adjudicate the matter.

Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa Passes UK in Number of Coronavirus Cases
South Africa surpassed the UK to become the country with the world’s eighth-highest number of reported coronavirus cases, recording nearly three hundred thousand cases (AP). The country accounts for nearly half of Africa’s confirmed cases.

CAR: A UN peacekeeper was killed and two others injured when the armed group Return, Reclamation, and Rehabilitation (3R) ambushed a convoy (Al Jazeera) in the Central African Republic’s northwest.

Europe
Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Clash Escalates
At least sixteen people, including an Azerbaijani general, have died in an escalating border conflict (AP) between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries have long fought over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region controlled by ethnic Armenian forces but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker monitors the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Belarus: Protests erupted after Belarus’s electoral commission barred two leading opposition candidates (BBC) from running in the presidential election next month, essentially guaranteeing President Alexander Lukashenko’s victory.

Americas
Latin America Passes Canada, U.S. in Coronavirus Deaths
Latin America’s coronavirus death toll has passed that of Canada and the United States (MercoPress) combined for the first time since the pandemic began. Brazil, Mexico, and Peru are among the countries with the most deaths.

Mexico: President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will visit three states that have seen a surge in cartel violence (AP).

United States
Trump Administration Drops Foreign Student Visa Rule
Facing mounting pressure from universities and businesses, the Trump administration abandoned a plan (WaPo) to force foreign students to leave the country if they are taking only online classes.

Global
Study: World Population in 2100 to Be Lower Than Expected
The global population in 2100 could be two billion people fewer (Guardian) than current UN projections, according to a new study that factored in declining fertility rates and aging populations. The study projects the world’s population will be 8.8 billion in that year.
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