If you’re unaware, the 2026 CPI is a clear, straightforward tool that evaluates each legislative district’s voting behavior relative to the statewide average, relying on data from recent statewide elections.
That means the CPI lets YOU know which seats are more conservative than North Carolina as a whole, and which seats have a more left-wing population. AND which seats are the ones that will decide control of the NC legislature.
In the North Carolina Senate, the CPI indicates there are 16 safe Democratic seats, 1 likely Democratic seat, 2 lean Democratic seats, 3 toss-up seats, 3 lean Republican seats, 9 likely Republican seats, and 16 safe Republican seats.
For the North Carolina House, there are 37 safe Democratic seats, 6 likely Democratic seats, 4 lean Democratic seats, 7 toss-up seats, 15 lean Republican seats, 10 likely Republican seats, and 41 safe Republican seats.
Why does that matter beyond the horse race?
Because understanding a district’s baseline tells us where policy debates will be decided.
Competitive districts are where issues like school choice, tax reform, and public safety are won with persuasion rather than party labels. Safe seats, by contrast, are where the real action often happens inside the majority caucus.
The 2026 CPI also illuminates something North Carolinians sense: our politics are sorting by place.
Urban cores continue to tilt blue, exurbs and rural counties remain reliably red, and the fast-growing suburbs sit on the fulcrum.
That doesn’t doom us to gridlock; it simply means policy arguments must be made with facts, prudence, and a nod to local realities.
Alone, the CPI is not a comprehensive tool for predicting races, but it is a baseline measure that folks can use to better understand the upcoming 2026 election.
You can learn more about elections in North Carolina here, here, and here.
Esse quam videri,
Donald Bryson
CEO
John Locke Foundation
RSVP today for the Carolina Liberty Conference!
Join us in Raleigh for the Carolina Liberty Conference, a landmark policy event exploring North Carolina policy, liberty, and innovation — commemorating the 250th anniversaries of both North Carolina and the United States.
CLC 2026 will take place February 27–28, 2026, at the StateView Hotel in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Even though here in the United States, we remember our veterans and their sacrifices on Memorial Day, Veterans Day always prompts reflections on the legacy of World War I
More than 2 million American soldiers sailed to Europe to fight in WWI, and more than 100,000 died there
While other wars may have been bloodier for the United States, it’s important to remember how WWI changed the course of both world and American history
By 1918, the war, and how it had been administered, had discredited the global ruling class in the eyes of the masses
Radical groups, on both the right and the left, exploited the public’s disillusionment and sought to destroy institutions and replace them with something new and better…
The Communists took full control of Russia in 1922, the Fascists of Italy in 1925, and the National Socialists of Germany in 1933
Once in power, these radicals subjected the world to an inebriety of death and destruction on a scale previously unimaginable, initiating World War II and leaving much of Europe and Asia in ruins
Yet, after all those horrible ordeals, here we are again — with radical groups exploiting the masses’ frustration with the global ruling class
How do we convince Americans, particularly young Americans, to step back from the brink?
One way is to teach them history, specifically about World War I and its horrific consequences
Election security has lately been associated with conservatives, but there are progressives who share concerns about election integrity.
A report by the left-wing organization Free Speech for People emphasized that post-election audits are only reliable measures of voter intent if voters use hand-marked paper ballots (HMPBs).
Widespread reliance on computerized election systems has led to officials underestimating their vulnerabilities.
North Carolina's use of BMDs in about a dozen counties weakens the validity of election audits, because ballots recorded electronically do not provide strong evidence of voter intent.
The report recommends that all counties switch to HMPBs.
The report acknowledged that North Carolina's existing post-election audits have strengths, including being conducted by hand, selecting audit batches at random, being conducted publicly, and presidential elections are automatically audited.
But North Carolina's audits primarily only verify that the numbers match when counted twice, making them "less effective" tools for detecting underlying problems.
Locke has also noted that the current sampling method is not truly random.
North Carolina should move beyond simple recounts and implement independent election performance audits.
These audits would review the entire process over a two-year period, including verifying ballot and equipment chains of custody and ensuring officials followed election law.
The audit should be conducted by an outside entity, such as the Office of the State Auditor…
… And include responses from the State Board of Elections' Executive Director.
Implementing performance audits would ensure that our elections are a "trustworthy record of voter intent,” and serve as a basis for continuous improvement.
For the first time in several years, North Carolina will use the same state legislative districts for 2 consecutive elections.
This allows for an assessment of political shifts by comparing the 2026 Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) with the 2024 CPI.
Most shifts in district partisanship reflect ongoing, long-term trends:
Republicans continue to gain support in the East, the Sandhills, and the southern Piedmont regions.
Democrats continue to make inroads in the suburban areas surrounding the state's largest metropolitan areas.
A new, distinct trend emerged in Western North Carolina (outside of Asheville), which had been reliably trending Republican but largely shifted toward the Democrats in the latest CPI.
The shifts were calculated by comparing the 2024 and 2026 CPIs, which measure the partisan lean in each district using election data.
