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Is Trump losing his grip on the Republican Party?



President Donald Trump's hold on the Republican Party may be slipping as GOP
lawmakers at both the state and federal level refused to heed his demands.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans are set to vote Tuesday on a bill to release the
government’s files on accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. This vote will
follow Trump’s monthslong pressure campaign to block the bill, which he
abruptly flip-flopped on this week. He is pissed Republicans defied his orders
on the vote, but he had to change his position when it became clear he'd have
some serious egg on his face when the vote took place.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the GOP-controlled state legislature said it will not
redraw the state's congressional districts for the 2026 midterm elections, even
though Trump and Vice President JD Vance were pressuring Republican lawmakers
there to do so.





 



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That refusal has led to an ugly and public meltdown from Trump, who so fears
losing control of the House in 2026 that he's trying to rig congressional
districts with mid-decade redraws in GOP-held states.

Trump threatened to recruit primary opponents to Republicans who won’t vote
for a new congressional map. But even that isn’t moving the state lawmakers,
who have held firm in their opposition to the unusual mid-cycle gerrymander.



Those two rebukes of Trump follow Senate Republicans’ refusal to heed Trump's
demand to scrap the filibuster in order to end the government shutdown earlier
this month.

What’s more, in October, Trump was met by rare criticism from a group of
farm-state Republicans, who were irate about Trump's plan to purchase cheaper
beef from Argentina as well as give a roughly $40 billion bailout to the South
American nation.




 



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Argentina has capitalized on the trade war Trump launched with China by
selling their own soybean crops to China, while China has largely stalled
soybean purchases from the U.S.—hurting American farmers.

Ultimately, the defections from Dear Leader are a sign that Republicans know
their fate in the 2026 midterms is inextricably linked to Trump's popularity.

Republicans got their first bitter taste of what Trump’s unpopularity could
bring for them earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats beat
expectations and handily won each state’s gubernatorial election—and picked up
up seats in the state legislatures.

And given Trump's second-term approval rating has recently been at its nadir,
they are finding areas to buck him in an effort to save their own skins next
November.

To be sure, Republican voters are still overwhelmingly supportive of Dear
Leader. In a poll released Tuesday, the GOP polling firm Echelon Insights found
that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans stands at 87%.

Nevertheless, cracks are forming in his party. And if he doesn't look out,
those cracks could turn into deep fissures.



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