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Welcome to the November edition of The Lever, featuring expert insights and analysis from Voting Rights Lab.
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In this month’s newsletter, we offer our take on Election Day 2025 and what it can tell us about the state of American democracy as we look to the 2026 midterms. We also explore what to watch for — and what’s at stake — in Watson v. RNC. The case on mail ballot postmark deadlines is slated for argument at the Supreme Court this term.
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A GREAT DAY FOR DEMOCRACY: KEY LESSONS FROM THE 2025 ELECTIONS
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Voters turned out in record numbers for the 2025 elections. This high turnout and several outcomes together tell a clear story: American voters are rejecting President Trump’s destructive elections agenda and making it clear they trust the system of checks and balances that keeps our elections free, fair, and secure.
In our latest analysis, we examine voter turnout in the 2025 elections, voters’ clear rejection of restrictive policies, and lay out the critical next steps that states must take to secure our elections in 2026. As our CEO, Samantha Tarazi, wrote in USA Today, a free and fair election in 2026 depends on our state leaders standing firm in defense of our Constitution and the voters.
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BY THE NUMBERS
16
That’s how many states (in addition to D.C.) currently have a postmark deadline in place that allows election officials to count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day. Generally, these policies enable ballots to arrive a few days after Election Day and still be counted, so long as they meet the postmark deadline. The remaining states require most mail ballots to be received on or before Election Day to count; however, 29 states make exceptions for military and overseas (UOCAVA) voters.
These common-sense laws ensure that voters who complete their ballots in good faith are not subject to the whims of the U.S. Postal Service. However, with the news this month that the Supreme Court is granting review of Watson v. RNC, these voters are now at risk.
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WHAT WE’RE READING: SUPREME COURT TO HEAR CHALLENGE TO MAIL BALLOT DEADLINES
We are currently watching five election cases pending before the U.S. Supreme Court this term, or otherwise in the pipeline. Last week, the Court announced that it would take up Watson v. RNC (formerly known as RNC v. Wetzel). This case will determine whether states can count mail ballots postmarked by but received after Election Day.
The case began when two Mississippi voters, along with the state and national Republican committees, challenged Mississippi’s postmark deadline law, which counts ballots received up to five days after Election Day, so long as they are postmarked by Election Day. A recent analysis from the National Conference of State Legislatures covers the case's progression through federal court and the Fifth Circuit.
Eliminating ballot postmark deadlines could affect millions of Americans who vote by mail. Members of the military and overseas voters, senior citizens, and voters with disabilities would likely be the most impacted by restricting or eliminating mail ballot grace periods.
Arguments are likely to be heard in Spring 2026, with a ruling expected by June or July. A ruling siding with those challenging Mississippi’s law would force state legislatures to scramble to update mail voting guidelines just a few months before the 2026 midterm elections — creating confusion for voters and election administrators alike.
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THE MARKUP
The Markup is Voting Rights Lab’s law and policy update, powered by our Election Policy Tracker. We’re currently on a biweekly schedule. If you would like to subscribe, please check the sign-up box at the bottom of this form.
Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s Markup:
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Federal judge blocks Trump executive order seeking to impose proof-of-citizenship requirement. U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly ruled that President Donald Trump cannot direct the Elections Assistance Commission (EAC) to add a proof-of-citizenship requirement to the federal voter registration form. This direction to the EAC, an independent bipartisan commission, was one part of the president's executive order on elections issued earlier this year. Kollar-Kotelly explained that the Constitution "assigns responsibility for election regulation to the States and to Congress."
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Montana law leads to mail ballot rejections. Counties in Montana are seeing 3-4% of ballots rejected due to a law enacted earlier this year. H.B. 719 requires voters to provide their birth year on the return envelopes for mail ballots. In Yellowstone County — the largest in the state — election officials reported that 80% of ballots rejected in last week's election were due to missing birth years. Similarly, in Gallatin County — the second-largest — officials reported a notable increase in ballot rejections.
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