November 14, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

 

Trouble For Chuck Schumer As Democrats Cave On Shutdown: Will Radical AOC Replace Him In 2028?

By Manzanita Miller

Now that Senate Democrats have finally given up on extending expanded Obamacare subsidies to end the 43-day government shutdown and joined Republicans to pass a continuing resolution funding the government, much of the country is relieved. The House quickly passed the legislation on Nov. 12, and President Donald Trump signed it, ending the grueling shutdown as Democrats caved on their demands with nothing to show for it. 

While Americans are largely pleased to have the shutdown in the rear-view mirror, Democrats on the far left are out for blood after the continuing resolution passed without their healthcare subsidies being included, and they are setting their sights on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) who faces reelection in 2028.    

While Schumer did not break rank with his party to cast a positive vote to end the government shutdown — instead seven Democrats and one independent did — Democrats are furious he was unable to keep his party in line and get them their Obamacare subsidies. 

According to Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), one of the Democrats who crossed lines to support the continuing resolution reopening the government, Schumer himself knew that the only way the shutdown would end would be if a handful of Democrats crossed over to support the GOP bill. 

According Shaheen, Schumer was “informed throughout” that Democrats would cave to end the shutdown but stated he could not be one of the Democrats who crossed over to support the GOP bill, ensuring that unpopular mark fell on eight other senators.    

The idea that Schumer left his colleagues out to dry while keeping his own hands clean, ultimately allowing his colleagues to fall on their swords and ensuring the Obamacare tax credits failed, has left Democrats irate. If Schumer was unpopular before the shutdown debacle, he is even more so now. 

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said in the wake of the shutdown deal that Schumer’s numbers are “terrible”. According to Enten’s analysis, Schumer is the least popular Democrat Senate leader of all time, with Schumer underwater among his own party by four percentage points.    

Enten noted that the reason for Schumer’s abysmal numbers are that Democrats want “a fighter”, citing CNN polling showing 69 percent of Democrats today say Congressional Democrats do too little to oppose President Donald Trump. This number is up twenty-three points since 2017.      

One possible Schumer replacement, New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has been vocal about Senate Democrats’ inability to pass the Obamacare subsidies in the wake of the shutdown deal. 

“There’s a lot of focus rightfully on Leader Schumer, but I do think that when it comes to the Senate, it is Senate Democrats that select their leadership,” Ocasio-Cortez told Politico. “And so I actually think this problem is much bigger than Leader Schumer.”  

As for how Ocasio-Cortez might fair if she attempted to replace Schumer in 2028, CNN’s polling data shows that Ocasio-Cortez’ approval rating among New York State Democrats is significantly higher than Schumer’s.  Ocasio-Cortez is sitting at an approval rating of 46 percentage points among New York State Democrats, while Schumer sits as 16 percent, a difference of 30 points. 

Schumer’s replacement will be an indicator of whether the Democratic Party is attempting to embrace a more centrist agenda — as some are urging them to do — or planning to drag the party further left. The 43-day shutdown, which could have been avoided had Democrats simply come to the table at the end of September, is one of many examples of Democrats putting politics over serving the American people. If AOC replaces Schumer, expect a Democrat Party that is even more inclined to fight to block conservatives at every juncture. 

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/11/trouble-for-chuck-schumer-as-democrats-cave-on-shutdown-will-radical-aoc-replace-him-in-2028/ 

Watch Out, J.D. Vance: Economic Turmoil Always Hurts The Incumbents And Leads To One Term Presidencies

By Robert Romano

Good news for Vice President J.D. Vance, or whosoever runs as the Republican nominee in 2028: Only twice in American history has the White House incumbent party lost three elections in a row, and those years were 1844, 1848 and 1852, and then again in 1888, 1892 and 1896.

It wasn’t magic, nor was it coincidence. 

In the 1840s, the U.S. experienced three consecutive recessions: one particularly deep depression from 1839 to 1843, another in 1845 to 1846 and yet another in 1847 to 1848. 

And in the late 1880s and early 1890s, there were four consecutive recessions: one in 1887 to 1888, another in 1890 to 1891, yet another in 1893 and one more in 1896.

The result was the incumbents kept getting kicked out of office and ultimately led to the demise of the Whig Party. In 1840, the Whigs won. In 1844, the Democrats won. In 1848, the Whigs won. And in 1852, the Democrats won, and would hold until 1860, when the Republicans emerged and Abraham Lincoln was elected.

Later, in 1884, Grover Cleveland and Democrats won, in 1888, Benjamin Harrison and Republicans won, in 1892 Cleveland and Democrats won, and then Republicans won again in 1896 and 1900, breaking they cycle once again. 

Bad news: The White House incumbent party has already lost two in a row following the Covid recession of 2020 and the high inflation of 2021 and 2022, leading to the ouster of Donald Trump and Republicans in 2020 and Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Democrats in 2024.

Worse news: And there has never been a time when there were only two White House incumbent party ousters in a row. So far, when there were two, it led to a third consecutive defeat of the incumbents, undoubtedly owing to the instability of the economy during both periods. 

All told, the years the incumbent party won after one term regardless of who the party’s nominee was were 1792, 1804, 1832, 1856, 1864, 1916, 1924, 1936, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1996, 2004 and 2012. The years the incumbent party lost after one term regardless of the nominee were 1828, 1844, 1848, 1852, 1888, 1892, 1896, 1980, 2020 and 2024.

Overall, the incumbents win 60 percent of the time after being in power for only one term, and lose 40 percent of the time. 

Looking toward the modern examples, the Great Depression led to the collapse of Republicans in 1932 and the rise of Franklin Roosevelt and Democratic one party rule for almost 20 years. 

The inflation of the 1970s gave way to Ronald Reagan in 1980. The 1990 to 1991 recession gave us Bill Clinton in 1992. The Great Recession gave Barack Obama a super majority after 2008 and then Arlen Specter’s defection. The Covid recession knocked Trump out in 2020 and then post-Covid inflation knocked Joe Biden and Kamala Harris out in 2024.

Of those, I think 1932 and 1980 were realigning elections, catapulting Democrats to the trifecta (very substantial) and later Republicans to the White House and Senate. These were such blowouts they shaped future electoral landscapes. Others led to gains that were short lived once midterms happened and then again when going for the third consecutive White House term. 

In other words, besides incumbency, on balance, the economy is one of the single greatest predicters of how the next election is going to go. 

Globally economic turmoil can also lead to even more extreme outcomes depending on how bad it gets. Famous historic examples are the collapse of Czarist Russia to communism as World War I bankrupted that country and led to starvation. Hyperinflation in Germany led the way for socialists and later the Nazis. At the time, the argument was about the failures of capitalism, liberalism and democracies.

Volatile economies lead to volatile politics. Today, economic turmoil is seeing the rise of Democratic Party socialists winning elections just this year alone, for example, in New York City and Seattle. Inflation is not only a majority killer, it’s an incubator of radicalism. 

Year in and year out, voters when polled say it’s the economy that’s on their mind. Occasionally it’s a war or something else, but usually, almost always, it’s the economy that’s on their minds. And so will it be in 2028.

Rest assured, if the White House incumbents lose for a third time in a row, it will be because of the economy. And as President Trump and Vice President Vance can attest, a year can go by really fast. 

2028 will be here before you know it — and so there’s actually very little time to address the lingering effects of Covid and the post-Covid inflation from a political standpoint. The American people crave economic stability, and they’ll keep cycling through presidents, Congresses and parties until they get it.

Looking around now, it’s important to point to areas of need — home prices stand out — because that can show where more policy is needed. 2026 will be a challenging year for Republicans regardless given the long odds the White House incumbents tend to face in the midterms and so the economy could come into play again. 

Voters in polls are saying they’re still hurting from the inflation and the high cost of living. Those views can shift dramatically by 2028 but only if the numbers truly show real wages on the rise and the affordability gap shrinking. The trouble for Republicans will be that prices usually only come down in recessions, so if they’re planning on having one of those, it’s usually better they occur early in a term rather than later.

For the incumbents, President Trump and Vice President Vance, forecasting the economy is a lot like forecasting the weather. You’re hoping for sunny skies but sometimes it rains — and when it does you’ll never convince the voters they’re not wet.

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/11/watch-out-j-d-vance-economic-turmoil-always-hurts-the-incumbents-and-leads-to-one-term-presidencies/ 

President Trump Should Use Trade And Tariffs To Get EU To End CSDDD

Nov. 14, 2025, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government Executive Director Robert Romano today issued the following statement urging President Donald Trump to use his trade and tariff negotiation powers to get the European Union to repeal Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD): 

“On Nov. 13, the EU voted to take steps to protect business growth by removing damaging provisions from its CSDDD law — a positive step, but not nearly enough. The directive still extends the EU’s reach far beyond its borders, forcing American companies to bear unnecessary reporting and compliance costs that weaken their global competitiveness and make them vulnerable in the face of foreign adversaries. The Trump administration should use its full trade and tariff negotiating power to force the European Union to fully repeal CSDDD.”

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2025/11/president-trump-should-use-trade-and-tariffs-to-get-eu-to-end-csddd/