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The Epstein Slide | Behind the Numbers with Rick & Andrew Wilson
The shutdown, tariffs, and Epstein revelations have fused into a single narrative of political and personal failure.
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Trump’s approval collapse is accelerating across every major polling series, including among Republicans.
Independents are consistently breaking against Trump and congressional Republicans in blame and favorability metrics.
New polling shows voters increasingly view Trump’s Epstein ties as close and credible, not partisan noise.
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Trump’s approval is in freefall, with the ECP tracker dropping him to 41% approval while AP-NORC shows Republican support collapsing from 81% in March to 68% in November (insert image: AP-NORC GOP erosion graphic).
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The negativity is broad and sticky: Navigator’s word clouds are dominated by “Epstein,” “files,” and “tariffs,” signaling that voters aren’t just hearing bad news—they’re attributing it directly to him (insert image: Navigator negativity word clouds). The shutdown deepened the damage, with independents blaming Trump and Republicans nearly two-to-one, a divide reinforced by Navigator’s final “blame game” read (insert image: Navigator shutdown blame chart).
Then there’s the character blow: YouGov finds 43% of Americans now describe Trump and Epstein as “close friends,” a framing that pushes the story from scandal to moral corrosion.
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What’s cracking isn’t only his coalition but the entire permission structure that once insulated him from consequences. This moment isn’t turbulence—it’s a structural unraveling in plain sight.
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