John,

We invite you to read the Sentencing Project’s new report, “America’s Incarceration Crossroads: Reversing Progress Amid Record-Low Crime Rates.” This analysis reveals a troubling reversal in U.S. criminal justice reform, reflecting a growing political backlash to reform and a resurgence of punitive policies that undermine public safety and harm communities of color.

Key findings:

After a 25% decline in incarceration between 2009–2021, 39 states increased prison populations in 2023, despite violent and property crime rates hitting historic lows.
States that reduced their incarceration witnessed greater declines in crime rates. From 1999-2023, New York cut its prison population by over 50% - and during that same period, violent crime dropped by 34%, outpacing the national decline of 28%.
In contrast, Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas increased prison populations by over 10% between 2021 and 2023 and approved or began construction of new prisons, ignoring evidence that mass incarceration fails to improve safety.

Mass incarceration is a policy failure, not a safety solution. Instead of repeating costly, ineffective strategies, lawmakers should respond to fluctuations in crime by adopting evidence-based alternatives that strengthen communities.