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This government shutdown recently entered the record books as the longest in American history. Workers on the federal payroll have gone unpaid. Massive air traffic disruptions have grounded travelers. Social services are lapsing.
For weeks, the opposition held firm. Then, yesterday, a group of Democratic senators just… caved. Seven (plus Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats) reached a deal with their Republican counterparts to reopen the government with precious little to show for their effort.
Look, I get it. I’m Russian, but I’m not heartless. I know that government employees are suffering, and I can only imagine the predicament they find themselves in. I’ve been doing a fair bit of traveling over the past few weeks, and I know that flight cancellations and delays can upend livelihoods and separate families during the holiday season.
But when you are in the opposition, your options are limited. And when you face a demagogue, each concession fuels his next demand. Every compromise emboldens him. It’s a question of severe pain now or even more severe pain later.
Worried about federal workers? Healthcare? Benefits? How do you think Trump will approach these issues when he has a free hand? If Thanksgiving isn’t ruined, it’ll be some other holiday.
You could profile any of the Democratic senators who folded before the president, or their Republican colleagues who defer to Trump’s worst impulses even more frequently.
But it’s Senator Tim Kaine’s dubious position that really exposes the strategic folly of the deal to end the shutdown.
Kaine is a Democrat from Virginia. Given its proximity to DC, Kaine’s state is most acutely affected by Trump’s evisceration of the bureaucracy and the current shutdown. The senator claims he compromised in order to protect his constituents in the federal workforce [ [link removed] ].
Yet those constituents don’t see things that way. Last Tuesday—already a month into the shutdown—Democrats took the Virginia governorship with a fifteen-point victory and flipped multiple seats in the state legislature.
Voters in the Old Dominion blamed the administration rather than the opposition for their shutdown woes. That’s not just my gut feeling—it’s backed up by polling, as well as the firsthand analysis of people who would know best, including Virginia’s outgoing Republican governor [ [link removed] ] and Donald Trump himself [ [link removed] ].
“The shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans,” the president observed [ [link removed] ] in a rare moment of self reflection last week.
More than anyone, Tim Kaine would have been in a strong position to press the advantage. And he gave up. (Does anyone even remember that this guy was on a major party presidential ticket in the last decade? It beggars belief.)
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The next shutdown, the next move
The Democratic senators were wrong to yield. This is my informed opinion. However, I’m not a US senator (nor even an American—just an admirer of your republic!).
Accordingly, here’s my strategic outlook, based not on the world I want, but the world we actually live in:
First, there’s Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Yes, Schumer opposed concessions to Trump (this time [ [link removed] ]). But what really matters is that Schumer failed to maintain discipline in his caucus at a time when the Democrats had just clawed back some political capital. Yesterday’s deal should expedite the Democrats’ search for a new leader in the Senate (Earlier this morning, my friend, moderate Democratic Senator Mark Kelly [ [link removed] ], demurred on a yes/no question as to whether Schumer still has his confidence).
Next, comes the job of the informed citizen. It’s no coincidence that the Democratic senators who backed the deal are either retiring or come from a class that won’t face voters until 2028 or later. They’re betting that you’ll forget. So, my message to my American friends is simple: Don’t forget. Make sure your representatives are aware that you know who’s enabling the administration’s bad behavior. Don’t wait three years to register your displeasure.
In a roundabout way, the deal’s only virtue is its fragility. This compromise is a temporary ceasefire, not a permanent peace. It only funds the government through January 30. Eleven weeks from now, Americans will face the prospect of another shutdown, and Congress will have another opportunity to hold the administration to account. If (really, when) the president oversteps in the interim, elected officials should arm themselves with evidence of the administration’s abuses and come into the New Year ready for a fight.
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