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More than three decades after the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed the initial North American Free Trade Agreement, the future of ever-deepening integration in the continent is up for grabs. In his first term in office, President Trump renegotiated NAFTA to create a new agreement, USMCA, with a provision for a review in 2026. The renewal of USMCA with minor tweaks might once have seemed a formality, but has become increasingly fraught as the White House levied a flurry of tariffs within USMCA and negotiated “deals” with third countries that could put the pact’s members at a disadvantage.
What is the likely future of the USMCA? What implications does it have for U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Canada geoeconomic relations? How should stakeholders in the United States formulate their strategies?
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