|
We invite you to visit and subscribe to our Substack, NIAC Insights, where we will be posting both Iran Unfiltered and other original content throughout the week.
Week of November 3, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
Iran is experiencing the driest and hottest autumn in 57 years, according to experts, deepening the country’s long-running drought and water crisis. Officials warn that this year’s autumn will bring historic low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and a worsening threat to drinking water in major cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, and Mashhad.
According to Ahad Vazifeh, head of Iran’s National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, both Iran and the broader Middle East are “on the verge of the driest and warmest autumn in nearly six decades.” He explained that satellite data show the country has entered a weak “La Niña” phase, a climate pattern typically associated with below-average rainfall. “The combination of Pacific Ocean conditions and pressure oscillations over the Indian Ocean has caused widespread precipitation deficits across the Middle East, East Africa, and Iran,” Vazifeh said.
He added that the current oceanic pattern is expected to continue through winter, with its strongest effects appearing in January (Dey month). As a result, “the country is facing an extremely severe drought,” he said, emphasizing that the second half of the year will not compensate for the rainfall shortages of the first half. The forecast shows eastern Iran will remain dry, while the west and central regions may receive near-normal rainfall.
Vazifeh warned that with reservoir and river levels falling sharply, drinking-water supplies in major metropolitan areas are under threat. He urged immediate restrictions on rice cultivation outside the northern provinces of Mazandaran and Gilan, and called on farmers nationwide to prepare for continued drought conditions. He also dismissed popular claims that neighboring Turkey is “stealing Iran’s clouds,” explaining that Iran and Turkey draw moisture from different sources: “Iran’s main moisture comes from the Indian Ocean, while Mediterranean systems passing over Turkey only affect the northwest. Therefore, suggestions of ‘cloud theft’ are scientifically unfounded.”
The drought’s severity is visible in hard data. Water inflow into Iran’s dams has fallen by 39 percent this autumn. As of early November, the country’s 193 reservoirs hold only 17.2 billion cubic meters of water—just 33 percent of total capacity, leaving 67 percent empty. Since the beginning of autumn, only 1.35 billion cubic meters of water have entered dams, compared to 2.19 billion cubic meters during the same period last year.
Beyond environmental damage, the drought’s economic toll is mounting. A recent World Bank report under the “Poverty and Equity” series warns that severe drought and water scarcity are directly threatening Iran’s economy and citizens’ livelihoods. The World Bank estimates that more than 35 percent of Iranians now live below the poverty line, while rising inflation and climate shocks continue to deepen economic hardship. The report also projects slower medium-term growth as water shortages cripple agriculture, energy, and industry.
Meanwhile, Tehran’s ten-million residents face the most critical water situation in six decades. Officials at the Tehran Water and Wastewater Company (Abfa) report that the capital’s surface water reserves are “red and extremely fragile.” Managing Director Mohsen Ardakani said, “We are entering our sixth consecutive drought year. Since the start of the 2025–2026 water year (about a month ago), not a single drop of rain has fallen anywhere in the country.” By contrast, he noted that 20 millimeters of rainfall were recorded at the same time last year and 30 millimeters in the long-term average.
To manage the crisis, the government has been diverting water from the Taleqan Dam to stabilize Tehran’s supply. Ardakani added that, based on meteorological forecasts, rainfall is expected to begin in the second half of December; if precipitation reaches at least last year’s levels, “we will not face a drinking-water shortage.”
Officials say Tehran residents have reduced water use by about 12 percent in the past seven months, but warn that consumption must fall by 20 percent to maintain network stability over the next two months. President Masoud Pezeshkian has personally called on citizens to cut water usage by at least one-fifth.
Despite these efforts, the situation remains dire. Hesam Khosravi, head of the Tehran Water Supply and Treatment Company, announced that water behind Tehran’s dams is now below 11 percent of capacity, calling the capital’s condition “extremely critical.” Similarly, Behzad Parsa, managing director of Tehran Regional Water Company, reported that only 14 million cubic meters of water remain behind Amir Kabir Dam—just 8 percent of its capacity.
Authorities have repeatedly warned of a “Day Zero” scenario—the point when major cities could run out of usable water. So far, 15 provinces have recorded zero rainfall since the start of the new water year, according to Ali Seyedzadeh, head of the National Water and Wastewater Office. He confirmed that 67 percent of national dam capacity remains empty.
Iran’s dependence on hydropower has also worsened the crisis. Reduced water levels have slashed electricity generation, forcing greater reliance on fossil-fuel power plants. During the summer of 2025, government offices in Tehran and other cities were repeatedly closed to conserve energy, drawing complaints from businesses over financial losses.
Tehran’s water network relies on five main dams, yet at least one of them—the Lar Dam—has reportedly dried up completely. Water shortages are also severe in other parts of Iran, from Khorasan to Fars and Sistan-Baluchestan, where low rainfall and rising temperatures have devastated agriculture and drinking supplies.
Vazifeh emphasized that Iran is suffering more acutely than most Middle Eastern nations from climate change, as global warming lengthens dry seasons in the subtropics and shortens the cooler, wetter months. The result, he said, is a structural transformation of Iran’s climate: “The dry season is becoming longer, and the wet season shorter.”
As the country braces for a winter with limited relief, the crisis reflects both a natural climatic shift and decades of mismanaged water policy. Without immediate national-scale reforms in irrigation, consumption, and resource planning, experts warn that Iran’s water emergency could evolve into a full-blown humanitarian and economic disaster.
In early November 2025, a new wave of political and diplomatic remarks from Tehran and Washington revived speculation about the possibility of renewed dialogue between Iran and the United States. Yet beneath the cautious signals, the two sides remain separated by deep mistrust, conflicting priorities, and the memory of war. While both are gesturing toward diplomacy, neither appears ready to take the first decisive step.
On 3 November 2025, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, delivered a speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 U.S. embassy takeover. He declared that Iran and the United States have an “inherent incompatibility and a fundamental conflict of interests.” Cooperation with Washington, he said, could be considered only if three conditions were met:
- The United States must “completely abandon its support for the Zionist regime.”
- It must remove its military bases from the region.
- It must stop interfering in the affairs of Middle Eastern nations.
Khamenei added that these conditions would not be achievable “in the near future,” but “could be examined later.” Rejecting the claim that anti-American slogans were the cause of U.S. hostility, he insisted that “America’s enmity arises from its arrogant nature.” During his speech, the audience chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Britain,” underscoring that the ideological divide remains embedded in the Islamic Republic’s political identity.
Just hours before Khamenei’s remarks, President Donald Trump told CBS News that Iran is seeking a new deal with the United States. “They want to make a deal, of course they do, though they don’t say it,” he said in his 60 Minutes interview aired on 3 November 2025. Later, during a White House press conference on 6 November, Trump reaffirmed his claim that Iran had reached out to explore sanctions relief, adding, “I’m open to hearing that — we’ll see what happens.” He also told reporters that he was “very much in charge” of Israel’s June 13 airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites, calling the operation “a powerful strike.” At a dinner with Central Asian leaders that evening, he reiterated, “Iran asked that the sanctions be lifted. I’m ready to listen — the door is open.” Trump’s comments revealed a familiar dual strategy: maintaining maximum pressure while keeping the door open for negotiations. European governments cautiously welcomed his remarks, expressing hope that Oman or Qatar could again serve as intermediaries for limited contact.
In Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi outlined Iran’s position with a mixture of defiance and restraint. Speaking to Al Jazeera on 1 November, he said Iran “is not in a hurry to resume nuclear talks with the United States.” He added that Tehran has “no desire to hold direct negotiations with Washington” but believes that “an agreement can be achieved through indirect talks.” Araghchi reiterated that Iran will not negotiate over its missile program or regional influence, insisting that “zero enrichment is impossible.” He explained that enrichment represents years of scientific progress that “cannot be traded away.” While confirming that around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent remain “under the rubble” of bombed facilities, he stressed that “technology cannot be destroyed by bombs.”
Araghchi said Iran had received “messages through intermediaries” but denied any recent direct or indirect exchange with the United States. He maintained that Tehran would engage only in “equal and honorable negotiations” based on mutual interest. Referring to the 2015 nuclear agreement, he added: “The formula of trust-building in return for lifting sanctions is still valid — if Washington abandons its excessive demands.” He also asserted that the June war was “a joint U.S.–Israeli operation,” warning that Israel would face “a heavier defeat if it repeats the aggression.”
At the same time, senior officials signaled Iran’s intention to maintain its nuclear and defense posture. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, responding to a journalist’s question about whether Moscow would supply S-400 systems to Iran, said Russia “has no limits” on military-technical cooperation with Tehran and “will provide what Iran needs.” President Masoud Pezeshkian, during a visit to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, pledged full governmental support for expanding the nuclear industry, announcing that eight new power plants are planned on Iran’s southern and northern coasts. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed that Tehran had “received messages via Oman” concerning potential talks but declined to discuss details.
Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued increasingly urgent warnings. Director General Rafael Grossi told the Financial Times that Iran must “seriously improve cooperation” with inspectors to avoid a new escalation. He stated: “You cannot say, ‘I remain a member of the NPT,’ and at the same time fail to meet your obligations.” Grossi revealed that, since the June war, the Agency has conducted about a dozen limited inspections but has not been granted access to Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan, the key sites damaged in the airstrikes. The Iranian parliament has further restricted inspections, requiring each visit to be approved by the Supreme National Security Council. Grossi warned that if cooperation does not improve, the Agency risks “losing awareness of the status of Iran’s nuclear materials.” He said that while there is currently “no active uranium enrichment,” satellite imagery indicates continuing activity near storage sites. For now, he sees “no need to refer the case to the UN Security Council,” but emphasized that “cooperation must be significantly enhanced.”
The rhetoric on both sides reflects a contradictory moment. Iran insists that its nuclear activities are peaceful and that it will never relinquish its right to enrichment. The United States demands transparency and broader restrictions that go beyond the nuclear file. Iran refuses direct talks, while Washington questions the usefulness of intermediaries. Khamenei’s framing of the conflict as ideological makes even technical engagement politically sensitive. Yet both capitals understand that renewed confrontation would carry unpredictable consequences. For now, they are testing the waters through limited mediation and controlled signaling.
Analysts in Tehran and Washington describe the current phase as one of strategic patience—a waiting game in which each side expects the other to act first. Iran signals openness to verification talks but only after sanctions relief; the United States insists on full IAEA access first. The resulting stalemate neither resolves tensions nor eliminates the risk of escalation.
As 2025 draws to a close, the relationship between Iran and the West remains defined by contradiction—public hostility alongside cautious maneuvering. Khamenei’s conditions for cooperation are politically unachievable; Trump’s rhetoric mixes threats and outreach; Grossi’s warnings highlight the fragility of oversight. Diplomacy now exists mainly in fragments—scattered remarks, mediated messages, and the faint hope that pragmatic necessity might one day outweigh ideological resistance. The door to negotiation is, as Trump said, “open,” but for now, both sides still stand far from walking through it.
Saber Kazemi, a 26-year-old member of Iran’s national volleyball team and a player for Qatar’s Al Rayyan Club, has died following complications from a stroke suffered in late October while in Qatar. His death has shocked Iran’s sports community and prompted an outpouring of grief from teammates, coaches, and fans across the country.
According to Iranian and Qatari media, Kazemi collapsed beside a swimming pool in Doha on October 17, 2025 after suffering a massive stroke. Qatari doctors managed to resuscitate him, but he remained in a coma under intensive medical supervision for several days.
On Wednesday, October 29, Iranian media reported the findings of a medical commission in Tehran, which took over his case after his transfer to Iran. The commission confirmed brain death, consistent with the earlier diagnosis by Qatari physicians. According to the report, “complete and irreversible loss of brain function” had occurred.
Kazemi had joined Al Rayyan only one week before the incident, signing a contract with the Qatari club — the defending champion of the Asian Volleyball Club Championship. Before moving to Qatar, he had played professionally in Turkey and Kuwait, earning recognition as one of Iran’s brightest volleyball talents.
Born on December 24, 1998, in the village of Qanqermeh near Aq Qala in Golestan Province, Kazemi rose from local competitions to the international stage. He joined Iran’s national volleyball team in 2018 and represented the country at major tournaments, including the Tokyo Olympics. Known for his powerful left-handed spikes and calm demeanor, he was celebrated as one of the most promising opposite spikers in Asia.
After his collapse, Kazemi was flown by air ambulance to Tehran on November 5 for continued treatment. Despite the efforts of Iranian specialists, he did not regain consciousness, and on November 6, 2025, the Iran Volleyball Federation announced his death.
His body was transferred to his hometown of Qanqermeh, where he was laid to rest three weeks after the stroke. According to the IRNA news agency, the funeral was attended by athletes, coaches, and local residents, who honored him in a traditional Turkmen ceremony.
“Women wearing long scarves and men in choghas formed a circle of solidarity around the Kazemi family,” IRNA reported. “The mournful song Yeldizim (‘My Star’) filled the air as the community bid farewell.”
Golestan Province, Kazemi’s birthplace, is considered one of Iran’s volleyball strongholds, having produced numerous national-level players. His death is regarded as a major loss for both provincial and national sports. In its official statement, the Iran Volleyball Federation praised Kazemi as “a symbol of discipline, humility, and passion who brought honor to Iranian volleyball.” Tributes also came from the Asian Volleyball Confederation, the Iranian Olympic Committee, and his former clubs in Turkey and Qatar.
The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) expresses its deep condolences over the loss of Saber Kazemi, which is a heartbreaking tragedy for the Iranian community. Kazemi was a symbol of the very best qualities of Iran — talent, perseverance, humility, and grace — and his legacy continues to inspire and unite young Iranians around the world. Kazemi’s dedication to his sport and his country stands as a lasting reminder of the strength and potential within Iran’s younger generations.
Officials confirmed that he suffered a sudden cerebral event rather than any physical trauma. His death has reignited discussion about athlete health monitoring and emergency medical preparedness for professional players competing abroad. Kazemi’s untimely death ends the career of a rising star who embodied Iran’s new generation of volleyball excellence. For many, his name will remain a lasting symbol of talent, perseverance, and national pride.
Iran and France have carried out a reciprocal release of prisoners, marking the latest episode of politically sensitive diplomacy between the two countries. Two French nationals detained in Iran — Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris — were released from Tehran’s Evin Prison, while Mahdieh Esfandiari, an Iranian citizen held in France, was transferred to the Iranian embassy in Paris. Although both sides have confirmed the exchange, none of the released individuals have yet left the host countries, and legal proceedings remain ongoing.
According to the Élysée Palace, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian following the announcement of the releases. Macron welcomed what he described as “a first step” and called for the “full and immediate release” of the two French citizens. In a message posted on X, he wrote that “Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, detained for three years in Iran, have been freed from Evin Prison and are on their way to the French embassy in Tehran.” He added that their release brought him “great relief” and that talks are continuing to ensure their swift return to France. Macron also expressed gratitude to France’s diplomatic corps and government ministries for their tireless efforts in securing the couple’s freedom.
In Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the two French nationals were released under “Islamic clemency.” He confirmed that Mahdieh Esfandiari, the Iranian citizen formerly imprisoned in France, had arrived at the Iranian embassy in Paris and would return to Iran once court procedures conclude. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei clarified that Kohler and Paris were freed on bail by order of the judge and would remain under judicial supervision until the next stage of review.
Cécile Kohler, a teacher and trade unionist, and her partner Jacques Paris were arrested in May 2022 during the final day of a tourist trip to Iran. Iranian authorities accused them of espionage for Israel and attempting to undermine the state. In late October 2025, the judiciary announced that a Revolutionary Court had sentenced both to more than 30 years in prison on charges of spying for French intelligence, collusion against national security, and intelligence cooperation with Israel. Their detention was widely condemned by French officials and human-rights organizations, who described it as arbitrary and politically motivated.
Mahdieh Esfandiari, a 39-year-old Iranian translator living in Lyon since 2018, was arrested in February 2025 by French authorities. The Paris Prosecutor’s Office charged her with “glorifying terrorism” after her Telegram account allegedly published a message praising the October 7 attacks on Israel. Iranian officials repeatedly demanded her release, and for months speculation grew about a possible exchange involving her and the two detained French nationals. Following her release, Esfandiari was permitted to stay at the Iranian embassy in Paris, and officials stated that she would return to Tehran after the French judicial process is complete.
Reports of a potential swap first surfaced in early October 2025, when Reuters and other outlets reported that Tehran and Paris were close to an agreement. France had earlier filed a case against Iran at the International Court of Justice for violating consular rights under the Vienna Convention, but withdrew the complaint in September 2025 — a move widely interpreted as part of the behind-the-scenes negotiations. Although the exact terms of the exchange remain undisclosed, the process appears to have been quietly orchestrated through informal diplomatic channels, demonstrating that dialogue continues even amid strained bilateral relations.
The case of Kohler and Paris is part of a broader pattern of Western citizens detained in Iran on security or espionage charges. In recent years, several other French or dual-national citizens — including Louis Arnaud, Benjamin Brière, Bernard Phelan, Fariba Adelkhah, and Roland Marchal — have faced similar accusations. Just weeks before this latest exchange, Lennart Monterlos, a 19-year-old Franco-German cyclist, was released from detention in Iran after being acquitted of espionage charges, highlighting the continued volatility of such politically charged cases.
The death of Omid Sarlak, a young man from Aligudarz in Lorestan Province, has sparked widespread debate and concern both inside and outside Iran. His body was found inside his car with a gunshot wound, only hours after he posted a video on social media burning a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The incident, which occurred on November 1, 2025, has since become the focus of conflicting narratives—one from Iranian authorities, describing the death as suicide, and another from activists and online observers, who have suggested his death was a politically motivated killing disguised as suicide.
According to local police and state media reports, officers discovered Sarlak’s body inside a white Pride sedan parked near Shahid Arsalan Goodarzi Stadium, under a bridge on the outskirts of Aligudarz. The city’s police commander announced that “a young man, approximately 22 years old, committed suicide using a handgun inside his vehicle,” and that a pistol was found beside him. Officials said the case was handled “in coordination with the judicial authorities,” and that legal procedures were immediately initiated.
However, earlier that same day, Sarlak’s Instagram story had already drawn considerable attention. In the video, he could be seen burning the image of the Supreme Leader while the voice of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi played in the background. Text on the clip included pro-monarchy slogans. Within hours of posting, he was dead. Opposition figures and many Iranians on social media quickly linked the timing of the video and his death, alleging that he had been briefly detained for his online activity and then killed under interrogation, with the discovery of the weapon staged to create the impression of suicide.
Several pieces of informal video evidence emerged soon after. In one widely shared clip, Sarlak’s father is seen standing near the underpass where his son’s body was reportedly found. A man filming points to blood stains on the ground and claims that the area had been “surrounded” or “sealed off” before the body was discovered—claims that fueled growing public suspicion. Yet within a day, Lorestan State Television aired a different interview with the father, in which he appeared calm and urged viewers “not to believe social media rumors.” State outlets barred independent reporters from asking questions, and human-rights groups noted that Iranian state media has a history of broadcasting coerced interviews and forced confessions, raising doubts about the authenticity of the broadcast.
On November 3, Iran’s Judiciary issued an official statement, referring to the deceased only by his first name, “Omid.” The statement denied any record of arrest or prosecution and described initial findings as consistent with suicide, declaring: “He had no judicial file, and despite the content posted on his personal page, he was never pursued or summoned by the authorities.” The Lorestan Prosecutor’s Office separately announced the formation of a judicial case and promised a “serious follow-up until the completion of the investigation.” However, no detailed forensic report or independent review has been released to date.
The funeral of Omid Sarlak, held two days after his death in Aligudarz, turned into a rare public display of dissent. Videos shared online showed a large crowd of mourners chanting anti-government slogans, including “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the dictator.” Many participants accused security forces of involvement in Sarlak’s death, while others carried his photo and denounced what they called another example of “youth being silenced.” The size and tone of the funeral reflected deep frustration in the smaller provincial town, not only among activists but also ordinary citizens who distrust the official explanation.
While authorities insist that the evidence points to suicide—citing the handgun found at the scene and the absence of detention records—opponents argue there was foul play based on the timing of his death following his political act and swift rollout of the official narrative. Absent a transparent and independent investigation, doubts and controversy regarding the cause of Omid Sarlak’s death may continue.
|
