Democrats win back key voting bloc they lost in 2024

In 2024, Democrats reversed generations of elections as the party of the working class and ceded the title to Donald Trump. Inexplicably, shockingly, distressingly, Trump won voters making less than $50,000, while Democrat Kamala Harris carried those earning more than $100,000, according to exit polls.

Trump promised big things—chief among them lowering prices “on Day One.” Not only has he failed to deliver since taking office, he also hasn’t even bothered trying. His policies have instead fueled inflation: tariffs driving up costs, and mass deportations shrinking the cheap labor supply.

Then Zohran Mamdani shocked the political establishment, coming from nowhere to win New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary on a platform laser-focused on soaring living costs. Then this past Tuesday, he handily won the general election, too.

The lesson from Mamdani’s success is simple: Voters care most about how their vote will improve their financial health. Nothing else comes close. That’s how Trump managed to get 46% of Latinos to vote for him despite his open bigotry. Many were willing to stomach a racist in the White House if it meant a better shot at feeding their families. It sounds harsh, but worrying about climate change, trans rights, abortion rights, or immigration—all of which I fiercely support—is something of a privilege for those not consumed by the daily struggle of making rent or affording groceries.

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A candidate focusing their campaign on anything beyond a core economic message can be a liability. Even democracy itself doesn’t sway people when they’re struggling to survive—I’ve seen it firsthand in my native El Salvador. Hell, they’ll happily trade their civil liberties for economic security. 

Of course, that doesn’t mean Democrats shouldn’t fight for those causes. It means only that they shouldn’t campaign on them. A politician’s first job is to win elections. So talk about what voters actually want: a reason to vote. The answer must always be “A better life for you and your family.”

Trump promised that. He hasn’t delivered. And now he’s paying the price—both in the polls and at the ballot box.

Last year, Trump made New Jersey competitive, losing by just 6 percentage points—a 10-point improvement over his 2020 margin. Some of his biggest gains came in Latino-heavy, working-class areas.

But if New Jersey’s results on Tuesday are any indication, that flirtation with Trump may be over. According to exit polls, Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill won 68% of Latino voters and 71% of voters making less than $50,000 a year. She also carried 54% of those making more than $100,000. This is how it should be: Democrats winning everyone but billionaire assholes.

Virginia wasn’t much different. Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger won 67% of Latinos and 63% of the under-$50,000 crowd, while retaining 56% of those making more than $100,000. 

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Trump lied about lowering prices. He lied about caring. He never gave a damn about anyone outside of his gilded circle. There are White Houses to demolish and ballrooms to build. Why would he care whether the yokels he’s always despised can afford dinner?

Tuesday’s elections suggest Republicans may be in deep trouble. Their gains with the working class are going up in smoke, even as Democrats hold onto wealthier, educated voters. And even farm country might be trending away from the GOP.

New Jersey doesn’t have much rural territory left, but Virginia does. Outgoing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin won 63% of rural and small-city voters in 2021, according to exit polls. Spanberger just won 54% of them. And if you’re wondering whether those numbers were skewed by Republicans’ train wreck of a nominee, they weren’t. The lieutenant governor’s race shows the same pattern: The Republican won 56% of rural Virginia this year, but in 2021, they won 62%.

If even farm country is turning, another year of tariff pain and White House dysfunction could strip Republicans of one of the last voting blocs they thought was safe.

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