Nov. 7, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

 

Was Tuesday A Referendum on Trump? Not So Fast.

By Manzanita Miller 

One of the major takeaways from Tuesday night’s Democrat victories in Virginia and New Jersey was the massive rise in voter turnout for the Democrat candidates, which ultimately propelled Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill to easy victories. Democrats were so decisive in their wins they are being touted as a “referendum on Trump” by Democrats and the mainstream media.  

While Tuesday’s results should certainly drive Republicans to focus on upping their ground game and getting back in touch with the conservative populist arm of the party that is responsible for recent GOP victories, several independent factors played a role in Virginia — and to a lesser degree New Jersey — that do not substantiate referendum claims. 

The turnout in Virginia and New Jersey was significant for both Democrat gubernatorial victors — and was heavily influenced by special interests that devised an impressive ground game strategy to win both seats for Democrats. However, other factors, like the wildly unpopular government shutdown which impacts D.C. and Virginia disproportionally, and the fact that the GOP gubernatorial candidate in Virginia was being guided by advisors divorced from the voters who make up the populist arm of the GOP, cannot be ignored.  

One, Democrats have been building out a stealthy ground-game in Virginia over the past two years, and the Virginia GOP has done little to counter it. As Bill Wilson, the former President of Americans for Limited Government, pointed out Thursday, Democrats executed a strong voter registration drive in Montgomery County, increasing voter registration by 25 percent across five population-heavy precincts. This played a huge role in the Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s decisive win. 

In addition to being run over by the Democrats’ ground game in Virginia, the Virginia GOP was largely detached from the America First wing of the new populist right in the state. The GOP candidate for governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, was being advised by a former Nikki Haley Super PAC advisor, as Wilson points out. Other high ranking Virginia GOP members had ties to the anti-Trump wing of the GOP, a wing that for the record, keeps losing.  

Then, there is the fact that Sears was outspent by Spanberger to the tune of $30 million dollars. Outside groups, including the Democratic Governors Association, poured millions into Spanberger’s campaign in order to drive a strong get out the vote effort that Sears was unable to combat.  

Then there is the shutdown. While polling shows voters have increasingly blamed Democrats for the shutdown over time — with YouGov data showing a drop in support for Democrats in the generic congressional ballot among swing voters — a larger share of voters still blame Republicans.  

Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have done a good job of pointing the finger at Republicans, and polling shows voters blame Republicans over Democrats by around eight to ten points, what the latest NBC News poll showing voters blame Republicans for the shutdown 52 percent to 42 percent. There is absolutely an argument to be made that the shutdown was a contributing factor to Spanberger’s win, considering that Virginia encompasses a wide swathe of government jobs in the DC-metro area. However, whether the shutdown memory will impact how Virginia voters feel in 12 months remains to be seen.  

Last, there is the fact that President Trump did not endorse the Virginia gubernatorial candidate, making any claim that Virginia’s results were a “referendum on Trump” a significant stretch. This is in stark contrast to Ciattarelli in New Jersey. President Trump endorsed the New Jersey candidate for Governor, and Ciattarelli went on to beat his 2021 numbers by over 100,000 votes, though it was not nearly enough to compete with the Democrat.  

Yes, Democrats’ formidable ground game in Virginia is still a significant concern for Republicans, and the GOP needs to learn from Tuesday’s results. But a candidate who was never endorsed by Trump, was outspent nearly two-to-one by her rival, was being advised by a former Nikki Haley PAC advisor detached from the populist movement, running during a deeply unpopular government shutdown impacting much of the DC area, losing to the Democrat, should not be extrapolated to infer a “referendum” on President Trump. 

In New Jersey, while Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill ended up beating her Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by thirteen points with over 1.7 million votes, Ciattarelli ended up gaining on his 2021 numbers by over 100,000 votes as well. Ciattarelli improved, over the past four years, even in a tense political environment during a government shutdown, indicating the result was less a “referendum” on Republicans and instead driven by former fence-sitting Democrats who were driven out and vote. 

While Democrats’ well-oiled turnout machine in New Jersey still presents a serious challenge for Republicans in the midterm elections next year, Sherrill’s win is not yet a referendum on the Trump administration. Democrats turned up the sheer volume of votes, compelling side-line sitting Democrats to make it to the ballot box, but Republican turnout did not sink, it rose too. 

Tuesday’s result may be less the “referendum on Trump” that Democrats are casting it as, and instead a result of Democrats’ ability to fire up their base in blue states with a significant fundraising apparatus and voter registration drive during a deeply unpopular government shutdown. While these concerns are certainly looming over the midterm elections, Democrats showing up to the polls in two blue-aligned states is different than a referendum on President Donald Trump from the rest of the 48 states. Republicans need to examine the issues that lost them these races, particularly in Virginia, and reignite the populist, America First movement that won them the presidency last November. 

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/11/was-tuesday-a-referendum-on-trump-not-so-fast/ 

---

 

Vote On Ending Filibuster Should Be Done By The Rules 

Majority Leader Thune Should Put The Amendment Up For Two-Thirds Vote

Nov. 7, 2025, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government Executive Director Robert Romano today issued the following statement urging Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) to put an amendment on the floor to amend Rule XXII of the Standing Rules of the Senate to reduce the requirement for cloture from three-fifths to a simple majority:

“The standing rules of the Senate say that in order to amend the Senate rules takes two-thirds of the Senate: 'on a measure or motion to amend the Senate rules... [a] necessary affirmative vote shall be two-thirds of the Senators present and voting.'

“The President has called upon Senate Republicans to abolish the Senate filibuster rules, which currently requires a three-fifths majority to end debate, using the so-called nuclear option, whereby Senate rules are overruled on a simple majority vote. Senate Democrats attempted to do this in 2022 and failed. Today, several Senate Republicans appear unwilling to end the legislative filibuster in this manner, even to end the current government shutdown.

“However, a thoughtful debate on the filibuster might be just what the Senate and the American people really need. Most Americans appear unaware that it takes 60 votes in the Senate to pass a bill and the regrettable part of that is to 'blame' the government shutdown on the party in power, the Republicans, who without changing the rule. Democrats want Republicans to try and go nuclear to abolish the filibuster and fail — Democrats will be energized, Republicans divided and demoralized -- but there's another way.

“Instead, Senate Republicans who want to end the filibuster should bring up the motion under Senate rules and then everyone can very publicly debate it and vote on it, Democrats included. They say they want to end the filibuster. They just tried to do it in 2022 via the nuclear option. So make everyone vote on it. Call their bluff.

“Nationwide, Democrats in the Senate not in power will either be alarmed that their own party was voting to give 'absolute' power to President Trump, which might demoralize them instead in the 2026 midterms, while others will argue how longer term abolishing the filibuster will ultimately benefit Democrats when they win the trifecta. Make them go on the record explaining why it should always be 60 votes to pass funding bills and everything else. Then make commercials out of it to end the shutdown. President Trump can speak from the Oval Office to end the impasse. The bid might very well fail, only for Democrats to come back and do it later after 2028 or 2032 the next time they have the trifecta. But if there is truly bipartisan support to end the filibuster, then let’s do it by the rules and let's get on with the business of making America great again. Maybe the filibuster is what's holding the country back, or maybe the filibuster is the only thing saving it. But let the Senate decide. And then reopen the government.”

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2025/11/vote-on-ending-filibuster-should-be-done-by-the-rules/