View this post on the web at [link removed]

November 4, 2025 will be the date in the history books where it all turned. It was not simply another election. It was a reckoning. On that night, voters across the land sent a message: they will no longer tolerate a party that elevates spectacle over service, grievance over growth, division over dignity.
The party of Trump — once hailed by many as the party of disruption — has instead been so destructive that in race after race across the nation from California to Maine, from Georgia to Virginia and New Jersey voters rejected the politics of s party that threatens the liberty and prosperity of America. On November 5th, voters rendered their verdict that Trump and MAGA have become the most toxic force in American politics.
Democrats emerged as the party of patriotic populism. For all its faults, and there are many, in races after race Democrats won on a message of affordability and standing up to defend the constitution and our liberty.
In the symbolically rich race for governor of New Jersey, Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill delivered the clarion call. Invoking her state’s motto — “Liberty and Prosperity” — she reminded us that both are at risk today. She explained plainly: “Liberty alone is not enough if the government makes it impossible for you to feed your family, to get a good education or to get a good job.”
You can help Lincoln Square continue to provide critical coverage of elections. Please become a Lincoln Loyal paid subscriber today.
She reminded New Jerseyans — and by extension the nation — that leadership means “carrying the weight of other people’s hopes, standing firm when it is easier to bend, and always putting the common good above personal gain.”
In short: the message was clear. Liberty without opportunity is hollow. Prosperity without freedom is a shell. The two must go together — and the MAGA Republican brand anchored in Trumpism had thrown that contract into crisis.
Patriotic Populism Emerges
Patriotic populism, as it now emerges, differs sharply from the tribal vengeance and identity warfare of the past decade. Instead of scapegoating “others,” it invests in the many. Instead of extracting power for a party or a person, it demands accountability on behalf of the people. It says: yes, the nation is ours — and the government exists to expand our capacity to live, to learn, to flourish — not to limit us, not to hoard power, not to degrade trust.
On election night, we watched the brand of the Republican Party — once trusted as the party of duty, enterprise, self-reliance — unravel. Trump’s cult of personality had burnt out: the spectacle no longer masked the emptiness. What remains is a party that trades in grievance, isolation, and the politics of fear. It has become America’s most toxic party brand, because it has forgotten the deeper contract of service and opportunity.
By contrast, from Zohran Mandami’s victory as New York City mayor, to Democratic victories for Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, to races far and wide in Mississippi, Georgia and ballot propositions in Colorado, California and Maine all signaled a pivot: citizens are ready for something else.
Sherrill’s and the message of Democrats across the country of affordability and prosperity tied to the liberty promised in our founding documents, with a focus on serving our nation and each other — and importantly — policies that directly impact the lives of our people, exposed the toxicity of Trump and MAGA’s brand and the failed promise that chaos will deliver liberty and that patriotism means loyalty to a tribe over country.
The results were overwhelming:
In California, voters responded to Trump’s mid-census manipulation of congressional redistricting in Texas by an overwhelming 64% of the vote.
In Maine, voters rejected a MAGA’s Proposition 1 that would have place obstacles on voting procedures to benefit the tribe of Trump by the exact same 64% of vote an ocean away in California.
In Georgia, two Democratic candidates for Public Service Commissioner in Georgia not only defeated two Republican Incumbents, but became the first Democrats to win non-federal statewide public office in over 20 years. An echo to Doug Jones’ victory in 2017 when he became the first Democrat to win statewide in Alabama in 25 years.
In Mississippi, Democrats won three legislative seats that caused the Republicans to lose their supermajority in the State Senate for the first time in 13 years.
And in Virginia and New Jersey, where we have exit polls to measure against the actual results — the pivot is clear:
In both states, 65% of voters said they were disappointed or angry about the direction of the country. Spanberger won 80% of those voters in Virginia and Sherrill won 77% of them in New Jersey.
These voters have pivoted away from Trump and MAGA.
Sherrill and Spanberger both received 47% of the white vote, and well over 90% of the Black vote in their states. Both earned nearly 70% of the Latino vote, a group that Trump had made significant gains with in 2024 is rejecting him today. Younger voters ages 18 to 29 voted for Sherrill, Spanberger, and Mandami at 68%, 70% and 78%, respectively.
Democrats also made gains down-ballot, flipping at least 12 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and growing their narrow majority. In New Jersey, Democrats won their largest majority in the legislature in over 50 years.
Independents’ Day
But here are the more significant shifts in the results of November 5th.
Independent voters are running away from Trump and MAGA in numbers I have never seen before in the multiple election cycles I have worked in politics.
Independents voted 60% for Spanberger and 57% for Sherrill, as well as overwhelmingly for Prop 50 in California and and against Prop 1 in Maine.
Here are some numbers that every Republican office holder should consider. Your brand is on fire with the American people and its all tied to Trump and your kneeling to his every whim:
The exit polls asked Republicans if they identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement of if they identified as Republicans who did not aligned with MAGA. In Virginia and New Jersey, both of those combined groups represented 34% of all voters on November 5th. So everyone else made up 66% of the vote — and Spanberger won 81% of that vote in Virginia and iSherrill won 79% of that vote in New Jersey. For Republican officeholders in Washington, those numbers should finally make you more afraid of general election voters than you are of Trump and MAGA.
So Much for the Toxic Democratic Brand
But here are a few more: Remember how the Democratic brand was toxic? How the pundits and cable talking heads kept rattling on about how despite Trump the Republicans in Congress had a better approval rating then Democrats?
I do, but it never made much sense. For example, in the last NBC poll that came out the week end before the November 5th election, Democrats Congressional approval was underwater on by a whopping -25 points, while Republicans congressional approval was underwater, too, but by only -9 points. Yet the same poll showed Democrats winning a generic congressional vote by 8 points — which would usually mean a big wave victory if that margin holds up in 2026.
How could that be?
The results on November 5th explain a lot.
In the exit polls on election night, in Virginia Democratic Party approval was 48% Favorable and 49% unfavorable. Republican Party approval was 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable and Spanberger won by 15points. There are two reasons for this there was far more energy on the side of Democrats and Spanberger and far less energy left in the Trump MAGA coalition that had lower energy and many did not vote. A similar differential occurred in New Jersey for Sherrill’s 13-point victory.
The second reason should make every Republican running for office in 2026 rush down a whole bottle of Pepto-Bismol and make every pundit and every cable talking head realize they have been spending way too much time talking about Democrats and missed the most toxic brand in politics.
And here is is. Election exit polls show that yes, Democratic Party has its problems — but there are a growing number of American who have a profoundly negative view of both parties. In Virginia, 77% of those voters supported Spanberger. In New Jersey, 81% of those voters supported Sherrill.
We are witnessing the rise of Patriotic Populism around a Democratic message of affordability that states clearly liberty without opportunity is hollow. Prosperity without freedom is a shell.
Trump’s message of liberty means vengeance and patriotism means choosing a tribe. That’s lost the American people. Those in office who stand with him now will be those who choose to ignore the message voters delivered on November 5th. Change is coming.

Unsubscribe [link removed]?