From Jon Fleischman - So, Does It Matter? <[email protected]>
Subject Morning Hot Takes in California Politics!
Date November 6, 2025 1:11 PM
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Usually I run Hot Takes in the afternoon, reserved mostly for paid subscribers - but this week it’s happening in the morning. So much going on…
LA MAYOR KAREN BASS ENDS “EMERGENCY” ON HOMELESSNESS. LOL
Karen Bass declared homelessness a full-blown “emergency,” demanded sweeping powers, held press conferences, and promised change. Now she’s quietly lifting the emergency [ [link removed] ] — even though tents still line sidewalks and encampments still block storefronts. What changed? Not the streets. Just the politics. Instead of tackling addiction, mental illness, or criminal behavior, Bass doubled down on the same left-wing policies that created the crisis: limitless spending, no accountability, and a refusal to enforce basic laws. So the emergency is over — on paper. For the rest of Los Angeles, the misery, the sidewalk cities, and the failure continue.
IT’S GAME ON - GOP ON GOP RACE IN THE NEW CA 40!
With the passage of Prop. 50 we now have the intra-Republican showdown that a wrote about early last week, between GOP Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the newly constituted 40th Congressional District. For a full primer on this, see the article below. I predict that this race will get pretty ugly — fairly quickly. Calvert is known by voters in the most of the Republicans on the Riverside County side of this new seat that straddles the line between two Counties. Which means half of the district does not know him. Young Kim is known on most of the Orange County side, but only by just over 30% of the district. Look for each campaign to seek to define the other quickly.
I do not know what’s going on with the Riverside County GOP, but the Orange County GOP put out a notice today to its members that all Congressional endorsements (including Kim’s) are not valid for these new districts. Rep. Darrell Issa represents the southernmost 15% of the seat, so no doubt he is gauging whether to jump in as well. To add to the headache, if more than one Democrat runs there is every possibility that, because of our top-two election system, that some combination of Calvert, Kim and possibly Issa advance to the November election. I will be writing more about this contentious race. Below is the piece I wrote last week…
GOP FILES FEDERAL LAWSUIT CHALLENGING PROP. 50
A lawsuit was filed in federal court yesterday [ [link removed] ] by the California Republican Party, Assemblymember David Tangipa, and a group of California voters challenging the congressional maps enacted under Prop. 50. The suit argues that the new lines rely heavily on race, particularly Latino population targets, in violation of the 14th and 15th Amendments. Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California and led by the Dhillon Law Group, the challenge seeks to block the Prop. 50 map from being used in the 2026 election.
The ticking clock here is a real thing. There’s a very short window before the 58 county Registrars of Voters will start doing their work, based on the newly adopted maps. So plaintiffs will be pursuing injunctive relief to stop the new lines from being used until the lawsuit is resolved. Whatever happens with that request for relief, the losing party will take it to the Court of Appeals, and then someone’s asking SCOTUS to get involved. A lawsuit going up the federal ladder will have a better chance of a fair hearing than previous lawsuits filed with the State Supreme Court, that is partisan and in the bag, as they say, for the Democrats. It’s going to take a federal judge or panel with serious chutzpah to block a measure passed by voters. But it’s happened before!
Dan Walter’s, over at CalMatters, writes [ [link removed] ] on this and other Post-Prop 50 things. Worth a read.
INITIATIVE ALREADY FILED TO REVERSE PROP. 50
National conservative leader Jim Lacy, an attorney from Orange County, has filed a citizens’ initiative called the “Fair, Independent, and Nonpartisan Redistricting Act” will seek to restore the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission for congressional districts starting in 2028. Prop. 50’s gerrymandered maps would only apply for one cycle, then end if this measure passes in November 2026. Supporters say voters oppose gerrymandering and this ensures Newsom’s promise that Prop. 50 was temporary. The clock is ticking, and it remains to be seen if funding materializes to put this on the ballot, let along for campaigning to voters.
THIS IS WAR
Nothing fires me up more than a clear call to action. And Kira Davis [ [link removed] ] brings one here [ [link removed] ]. In the wake of Mamdani’s win and the left’s broader victories, she argues the Democrat Party has dropped the pretense and fully embraced a socialist identity. The mask is off, the stakes are ideological, and the fight is now out in the open. Her message: stop hand-wringing, stop waiting for someone else to save the country. It’s time to engage. Worth a read.
But there is a silver lining to all of this…perhaps several, but primarily, this is a demarkation point. This is a flashing neon sign. A booming voice from the heavens. There is no more ambiguity.
This. Is. War.
ANATOMY OF A REPUBLICAN “CRASH AND BURN”
Politico’s Will McCarthy has this long-form piece [ [link removed] ] that is a deep dive into the “Republican side” looking at what why the efforts to stop Prop. 50 did not pan out. I found it to be very insightful. And I’m not just saying that because I literally get the last word in the article.
BLOWOUT WIN
These numbers are a ginormous win for Newsom’s cynical play. Just really big. Top four reason for it:
- Massive fundraising disparity
- Full Anti-Trump messaging to Democrats - with vast resources behind it.
- The No on 50 effort pretty dark on advertising the final few weeks
- Completely misleading ballot question from Attorney General Bonta
SOUTH BAY AREA SUCKERS
Santa Clara County voters were played for patsies. Measure A was marketed as a way to “backfill” lost federal funds for healthcare, but the County deliberately placed it on the ballot as a general tax, meaning only a simple majority was needed and the revenue can be spent on anything. There are no guarantees the money goes to hospitals. And while it sunsets in five years, it still creates a massive $330 million-per-year revenue stream — roughly $1.6 billion total — that County Supervisors and their public employee union allies can use to expand bureaucracy, payrolls, and pensions. Voters didn’t rescue services. They fed the machine.
Last But Certainly Not Least…
FLASH ON DECISION DESK ELECTION NIGHT
I had a lot of fun on a relatively brief appearance on Decision Desk HQ’s Election Night Live Stream. When you aggregated all of the various live feeds it was six figures of eyeballs. It was great to banter with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd. I come on at 4:30.00. We talk about Prop. 50’s win, and then we watch the Mamdani speech together, with commentary. LOL. If you scroll earlier you can check out the comments from my friend Mike Madrid (our politics don’t line up all of the time, but I value the friendship, and we both love the Dodgers!)

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