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For a year, Trump and MAGA have been gloating about an imagined mandate. They told us their “massive landslide” meant they could govern without restraint. It’s been demoralizing for anyone who’s actually listened to what Donald Trump promised to do in his second term.
But Tuesday night was a refreshing reminder that Americans don’t like where he’s taking us. After nine months of Republican control in Washington, most Americans are dumbfounded, angry, and ready for a change.
We’re headed for a historic, though now predictable, midterm wipeout for Republicans — and likely many more tantrums from the President along the way.
Republicans lost because of Donald Trump and the economy. This is uncomplicated and should give Democrats a clear roadmap for 2026.
Voters are frustrated about the economy and see that Trump isn’t focused on fixing it. According to CBS exit polling, majorities in both New Jersey’s and Virginia’s gubernatorial races said Trump was a factor in their vote. We can safely assume most of those voters went Democratic up and down the ballot.
The supposed “multiracial coalition” that Trump and his allies once boasted about has completely deflated. Exit polls show that Winsome Earle-Sears’ identity as a Black woman had almost no effect on the outcome — even among Black women, 94% of whom voted for Abigail Spanberger. In both New Jersey and Virginia, Democratic governors-elect won Latino voters by margins of two to one.
The lesson here is simple: the economy cuts across every demographic, while immigration and culture-war issues have lost their grip on voters’ priorities.
Election results showed real growth for Democrats, not just a rejection of Republicans.
Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties each saw more than 10-point shifts toward Democrats compared to Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins. More significantly, Abigail Spanberger outperformed Joe Biden by 3.6 points in Fairfax, 2.8 in Loudoun, and 4.1 in Prince William counties.
In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill cruised to a convincing victory in a race that many expected to be closer. A deeper look at the county results shows she erased every Republican gain among Latino voters since 2024.
Trump may not have been on the ballot, but he was very much in voters’ minds — driving turnout among moderates, independents, and Latino voters who showed up to reject MAGA chaos.
What Comes Next
In the days ahead, you’ll hear plenty of talk about what Zohran Mamdani’s win means for the Democratic Party. Mamdani won on a clear, populist economic message. In certain demographics — and in the context of New York City — his politics are salient and persuasive. But that doesn’t mean Democrats should start nominating socialists nationwide in 2026. Mamdani’s win is a warning to septuagenarian and octogenarian establishment Democrats, but not a roadmap for candidates in every state.
As for Virginia Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones — his victory isn’t surprising given the political environment. To be clear: Jones is a fringe figure and someone who I thought deserved to lose. He should be nowhere near the pro-democracy coalition. Watching the ongoing MAGA civil war between Groypers and Boomers should make one thing obvious: some elements are too toxic to bring into the tent.
Violent rhetoric and ideological extremism undermine the unity politics that Spanberger modeled so effectively on election night — and that’s the politics voters are rewarding in Virginia Suburbs and dense Manhattan.
The President’s reaction, and that of the Republican Party, is panic. I can’t imagine Republicans in congress are feeling particularly good about maintaining their position on the shutdown and might be looking to distance themselves from the President as 2026 looms.
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