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From The Oklahoman
https://oklahoman.com/article/5666507/opinion-trump-and-the-gops-control-of-the-us-senate
Opinion: Trump and the GOP's control of the U.S. Senate
by THE OKLAHOMAN EDITORIAL BOARD
Published: Sun, July 12, 2020 2:45 AM
If President Trump’s polling struggles continue until Election Day, could that cost the Republican Party control of the U.S. Senate? This concern is emerging among some in the GOP, and it bears watching.
Democratic control of the House of Representatives, where Democrats hold a 233-197 advantage over Republicans (four seats are vacant, one is held by a Libertarian), appears safe.
In the Senate, however, the GOP's edge is only 53-47. If Democrats win the White House, they would need to flip just three seats to control the Senate, because the vice president has the tie-breaking vote.
The Associated Press noted in an analysis last week that both parties expect tight races in closely divided states where moderate suburban voters could be crucial. These include Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona and Cory Gardner of Colorado. Other Republican senators facing competitive races are Susan Collins of Maine, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Steve Daines of Montana.
In all, Republicans must defend 23 Senate seats this year, compared with 12 for Democrats, who have fewer incumbents facing tough re-election bids.
What is an at-risk Republican to do to get back to Washington? Veteran GOP pollster and consultant Ed Goeas offered his insight during a recent virtual discussion with the Washington, D.C.-based Ripon Society, a public policy organization.
“I will say one of the problems I think many of the senators have had is that with the Trump base,” Goeas said. “If you give them any sense that you are not 100% supportive of the president, they will turn on you very, very quickly.”
Goeas says Trump’s true base is about one-third of the electorate, and comprise people who have backed Trump from the start of his first campaign. He also says there is a non-Trump-specific Republican base, 11% or 12% of the electorate, who like Trump’s policies but not his character.
Many of the states with potentially difficult races for Republican senators, Goeas said, “are states that not only do you need the Trump base, you need the Republican base, and you need to start pulling in some independent voters.”
Backing Trump at every turn, he said, makes it difficult to attract voters whose support for the president ebbs and flows, “and certainly makes it hard to go after those independents.”
Goeas said many Republicans in tight races are airing campaign ads in which they talk about what they have done for their states, and refraining from mentioning Trump. In some cases, he said, it appears to be working, with the senators leading by a few points in polling while Trump struggles.
“That is going to be the key,” Goeas said. “Can they create some separation there that if Trump does not recover and come back, is he going to pull them underwater or not?” Republicans worried about full Democratic control in Washington next year must hope the answer is the latter.
SOURCE: https://oklahoman.com/article/5666507/opinion-trump-and-the-gops-control-of-the-us-senate
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