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**NOVEMBER 4, 2025**

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If you’ve observed Congress as long as I have, you get a feel for when stalemates begin to thaw and things may be moving. That’s the sense around Capitol Hill right now, as a bipartisan gang tries to end the shutdown. But the politics of the situation doesn’t line up with the compromise that may be struck. Donald Trump and the Republicans are clearly losing on the politics [link removed]; but what ultimately gets negotiated could give them a real victory.

**–David Dayen, executive editor**

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Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo

Trump Lost the Politics of the Shutdown [link removed]

Donald Trump wants the government shutdown, which today ties the record for the longest in American history [link removed], to end. You might say he’s desperate for it to end, because he’s gone back to the well of demanding the elimination of the Senate filibuster [link removed], so Republicans can pass government funding themselves. Killing the filibuster would be a great thing [link removed] for the country and the world, but it also appears to be the one area where Republicans routinely defy their president, so I’m not holding my breath.

But the context of Trump seeking an escape hatch is worth exploring. If the president were confident that his strategy to make the shutdown painful for Democrats and force them into submission was working for him, his attitude would be far different. Yet his tactics have backfired. Washington’s paralysis is hurting Trump politically, raising the salience of the issues that reveal him as indifferent to public suffering and even cruel.

So on a political level, Democrats have succeeded (with Trump’s help) in painting Republicans as mean and unfeeling stewards of American decline, with no plans for how to reverse the slide. But that doesn’t translate into policy success. And here’s where I must tell you about how Democrats in Washington are pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

The SNAP showdown was indicative of the whole reason [link removed] the government is shuttered right now: Donald Trump doesn’t respect the laws of the country, and has repeatedly violated them to nullify the constitutional directive that Congress controls the power of the purse. He got caught doing this with SNAP and meekly changed his position. But outside of that, hundreds of billions of dollars have been withheld, and agencies have been illegally dismantled. How can Democrats make a spending deal with someone who won’t honor it?

I guess the answer is: by getting a pinky swear. For the past week, rank-and-file Democratic senators have been huddling with Republicans to reach agreement on fiscal year 2026 spending bills, as a crowbar to force open the government. There are eight Democrats [link removed] in the gang, enough to break a filibuster on a funding bill.

** **

The gang is seeking “strong assurances” from Republicans, presumably about the health insurance subsidies Democrats have put at the heart of the fight, in order to agree to fund the government. They may only be able to get anywhere by getting Trump involved in talks [link removed]; obviously, his interest is to do it without Democratic involvement at all. So the question clearly becomes: What does “strong assurances” mean, and how can Democrats be satisfied with it if that meaning is unclear?

 

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