Off-Year Elections, Big-Picture Clues: What Tuesday’s Key Races Tell Us About 2026
After the polls close, America will have its first real read on where the electorate is headed.
|
Dear Friend,
Tomorrow, voters in a handful of states and countless local jurisdictions will cast ballots in the final major elections before the crucial 2026 midterm cycle. While the calendar labels it an “off-year,” the stakes—and the national political attention—could not be higher.
The outcomes of marquee gubernatorial contests, a pivotal redistricting measure, and high-profile judicial races are poised to offer the clearest snapshot yet of the American political mood and the strength of both major parties as they brace for a battle for control of Congress next year. Let’s take a look:
The Bellwether Governor’s Races: New Jersey and Virginia
Historically, the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia—the only two held the year after a presidential election—have been treated as the first major referendum on the party in the White House. This year is no exception, with both races expected to be extremely close and drawing enormous national campaign spending.
Virginia: The race to replace term-limited Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin pits Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The contest is a classic suburban battleground, with Spanberger focusing on issues like affordability, job growth, protecting fundamental rights, strengthening public schools, protecting veterans, and investing in rural Virginia—while Earle-Sears has embraced the conservative movement, particularly her opposition to abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
The winner here will either cement the state’s recent blue shift or signal a powerful Republican resurgence in the suburbs.
New Jersey: Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is fighting to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy against Republican former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. Despite New Jersey’s generally blue lean, Ciattarelli has run a competitive race, appealing to voters frustrated with the cost of living and high taxes, while Sherrill’s focus is on affordability, healthcare costs, education and reproductive rights.
A win for Ciattarelli in blue-leaning New Jersey, or a hold by Earle-Sears in Virginia, would be a major boost for Republicans, signaling a broad acceptance of the party’s economic and cultural messaging in key suburban areas. Conversely, victories for Sherrill and Spanberger would demonstrate the Democratic Party’s ability to mobilize voters around issues and serve as a crucial defensive measure ahead of the 2026 battle for Congress.
Battle for the Courts and the Map
Beyond the governor’s mansions, two other state-level contests are drawing national scrutiny for their outsized influence on future elections and policy.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court Retention: Voters will decide whether to retain three Democratic justices on the state’s highest court. The court currently holds a 5-2 Democratic majority. Republicans have mounted an unusual, well-funded attack against the retention of Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht, aiming to erode the majority.
Why it matters: Partisan control of this court will be vital in potential future rulings on election disputes, legislative maps, and key state-level constitutional issues heading into the 2026 and 2028 elections.
California Proposition 50: California voters will weigh in on a statewide ballot measure that proposes a new, aggressive congressional map. Championed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, the measure is a response to what many see as “fighting fire with fire” in an escalating gerrymandering arms race among red state legislatures to give Republicans an unfair advantage in the midterm elections.
Why it matters: If approved, Prop 50 could potentially flip as many as five Republican-held U.S. House seats to Democratic control, immediately impacting the delicate balance of power in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Key Local Races Reflecting National Moods
Several mayoral and local contests offer localized, yet nationally significant, insights into the evolving priorities of the electorate.
The New York City Mayoral Race: A Progressive Barometer
All eyes are on the nation’s largest city, where the outcome will provide a clear signal about the direction of the Democratic Party and American sentiment regarding the political poles.
The Candidates: Democratic Socialist State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is the frontrunner after a surprise primary victory over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. He faces former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an Independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Mamdani’s Platform: Mamdani’s agenda is one of the most progressive in a major U.S. city, including a proposed rent freeze for stabilized housing, fare-free city buses, the creation of city-owned grocery stores to combat high prices, and raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers to fund these initiatives.
Implications of a Mamdani Win: A convincing victory for Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, would be far more than a local event—it would be a powerful national sign.
The Democratic Direction: It would validate the argument that an uncompromising, grassroots-driven focus on core economic anxieties—like the soaring cost of living, housing, and childcare—can energize a winning coalition of young, progressive, and working-class voters. It would compel national Democrats to seriously consider adopting more ambitious, left-leaning policy solutions.
The Reaction to the Extreme Right: A Mamdani win would represent a decisive rejection of the far-right’s strategy of labeling all progressive policies as “socialism” to scare moderate and suburban voters. Despite intense, personal attacks aimed at linking him and his policies to “extreme communism,” his success would demonstrate that for many voters, the tangible benefits of his proposed economic changes outweigh ideological fear-mongering. It would signal that the most effective counter-narrative to far-right policies is an aggressive economic agenda that directly improves the daily lives of the working class.
School Boards and Local Referendums:
Across the country, especially in suburbs of states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Texas, school board and local elections continue to be hotbeds of cultural and political contention. Battles over curriculum, parental rights, and funding serve as a ground-level indicator of the intensity of conservative grassroots mobilization.
FIND THE RACES IN YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY
We’ve compiled a list of websites to learn whether or not you need to head to the polls tomorrow:
YOUR CHEAT SHEET TO THE 2025 GENERAL ELECTION
After voting, check your ballot on your state’s ballot tracker via the US VOTE FOUNDATION
The Road to 2026: Interpreting the Results
The results of Tuesday’s elections will be closely scrutinized by political strategists on both sides of the aisle, serving as a critical barometer for the 2026 midterms.
Suburban Swing: The most telling results will likely come from the swing suburbs of New Jersey and Virginia. If the GOP makes gains, it will suggest that their messaging on economic issues, parental rights, and crime is resonating strongly with the crucial swing voter demographic. If Democrats hold firm, it could indicate that the party’s focus on fundamental rights, healthcare costs, abortion access and perceived Republican extremism is a powerful counterweight.
Progressive Power: Victories for progressive candidates in New York City and other urban centers will provide a morale boost and a template for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, but could also be used by Republicans nationally to potentially paint the party as out of touch with regular voters, and push propaganda around “Democrats as communists.”
Electoral Integrity and the Courts: The outcome in Pennsylvania’s judicial retention election and California’s Proposition 50 will directly influence the legal and political terrain for the next two election cycles, impacting everything from voting rights to legislative map-making.
Ultimately, these off-year elections offer far more than local policy choices; they are a public opinion poll written in votes, providing the first major data points to answer the most pressing question in U.S. politics: Where is America headed in the 2026 midterms?
Never miss a thing from Lincoln Square, including our expert insights and analysis on tomorrow’s first real read on where the electorate is headed, setting the stage for the political battles of 2026, and beyond.
Upgrade now and save 40% off FOREVER (your rate will never change!) to join the ranks of the Lincoln Loyal, our paid subscriber community. That’s just $6/month or $60/year—-less than the cost of a cup of fancy coffee each week!
Hope you’ll join us for our post-election analysis, our weekly paid subscribers exclusive “Strategy Session LIVE", written commentary and special virtual events as a member of the Lincoln Loyal, one of the fastest-growing political communities on Substack:
 |
Sincerely,
Lincoln Square
