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** CFTNI Policy Briefs:
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Turkey, Gaza, and AI in the Middle East

I am pleased to share three important recent reports from Center for the National Interest Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe ([link removed]) exploring key foreign policy issues for the United States in the Middle East.

With so much attention focused on Emirati and Saudi investments in American high-tech ventures, CFTNI assessed the state of affairs in the global AI race in Josh’s report, “Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East: Hard Realities and Practical Solutions ([link removed]) .” The Trump administration is encouraging the export of a full stack of AI tools and applications, but this should only be the first step in a much larger project of multilateral cooperation. Ultimately, the United States will not be able to completely halt Chinese AI sales in the Middle East, nor can it prevent one friendly government from using these tools to target another.

Prior to the hostage deal negotiated by the Trump administration, CFTNI published a report outlining the likely outcome of the war in Gaza, “Everyone Will Be Disappointed with the Day After in Gaza ([link removed]) .” Israel will probably not be able to achieve total victory over Hamas, exclude the Palestinian Authority (PA) from Gaza governance, or maintain an international military presence in the Strip. At the same time, the PA will probably avoid any substantive reforms, Palestinian statehood will remain out of reach for the foreseeable future, and Western governments pushing for it may face backlash from their own citizens.

In advance of President Erdoğan’s visit to the White House, Josh examined the changing landscape in Türkiye in his report, “Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy ([link removed]) .” Ankara is currently experiencing a moment of incredible stability at home and immense influence abroad. It is an opportunity for the United States to have a major impact on this NATO ally, but only if the administration can come to terms with its America First agenda.

I hope that you will review these valuable and timely new papers.

For further information regarding the Center’s Middle East programs, please contact us at [email protected].

Paul J. Saunders

President

Center for the National Interest

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Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East: Hard Realities and Practical Solutions

There is no “Team America” AI—yet. Data center construction and semiconductor sales make good headlines and generate solid profits for the tech companies that function as the market movers on Wall Street. The Trump Administration has an AI Action Plan for leveraging diplomatic and financial resources in partnership with American companies to promote the full spectrum of AI equipment, infrastructure, and programming. But none of that activity is equivalent to a global alliance that will adopt “American AI systems, computing hardware, and standards… in line with our shared values.”

In this report, Joshua Yaphe concludes that a real multilateral framework for cooperation can be achieved. However, it’s going to take more creative thinking about how to use AI tools as confidence-building measures and how to mobilize funding from partners, without getting sidetracked by regional rivalries and competition.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

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Everyone Will Be Disappointed With the Day After in Gaza

This paper takes a fresh look at the problem of what Gaza will look like after the war. Many have written about the topic, mostly with unrealistic expectations or false assumptions, and the subject has become a moving target with the parties themselves changing the goalposts. This report aims to present a realistic vision for the outcome, one in which everybody will almost inevitably have to accept some amount of compromise and disappointment.

As we get closer to something resembling an end-game in Gaza, we can see the basic outlines of a new status quo. That includes the limited role of the Palestinian Authority, the improbability of statehood, voter discontent in the West, and a prolonged military burden for Israel. This scenario will present a number of problems for Israel and America. Policymakers would do well to consider these hard realities now and start to prepare for the consequences.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

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Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy

This report questions the assumptions of the America First foreign policy agenda by looking at the case study of Türkiye. This is a country that is at a crossroads, with incredible changes taking place, both in terms of the domestic political scene and the regional environment. Türkiye is now a pivotal player in the Middle East and President Erdogan has three more years until the next elections to solidify his legacy. This should be an opportunity for Washington to think strategically on how to build a stronger and deeper relationship.

Türkiye is trying to help the Trump Administration with back-channel talks in multiple conflicts, but it cannot offer the kinds of investment opportunities or high-tech partnerships that might grab headlines in Washington today. This is the same situation that a lot of countries today find themselves in, looking at Washington from the outside and wondering what it will take to get the administration's attention.

Read it here ([link removed]) .

About the Author:

Joshua Yaphe ([link removed]) is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, host of the Key Judgments ([link removed]) podcast on Intelligence Studies, and author of Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning ([link removed]) (Routledge, 2025), which is available for free in an Open Access edition online. He was Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and visiting professor at the National Intelligence University (NIU). He received a PhD in History from American University in Washington, DC, and authored the book Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared ([link removed]) (University of Liverpool Press,
2022).

The opinions and characterizations expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government.

Copyright (C) 2025 Center for the National Interest. All rights reserved.

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