Daily News Brief

October 31, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s changes to the U.S. refugee program, as well as...

• A meeting between the leaders of Canada and China

• Post-election protests in Tanzania
• Briefings on U.S. boat strikes off South America

Top of the Agenda

The Trump administration is capping annual refugee admissions at a record-low 7,500 people and reserving most slots for white South Africans. The plans were published yesterday in the Federal Register and correspond to the fiscal year that started this month. The move cuts the refugee cap to less than a tenth of its previous level of 125,000. It also doubles down on an interpretation of who qualifies as a refugee that has been disputed by refugee experts and the South African government. The White House has previously said that it does not have the resources to absorb refugees, and in the Thursday notice argued the cuts are in the “national interest.”

The context. For decades, the U.S. refugee program has applied to people fleeing war and political violence. The Trump administration claims that South African Afrikaners face racial persecution at home, though police data shows they do not suffer violent crime at a higher than average rate and outpace Black South Africans across key economic measures. Trump has sought to reshape refugee admissions in the United States, which as recently as the 2024 fiscal year welcomed thousands of people from countries such as Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria, and Venezuela. 

Cutting refugee admissions are part of Trump’s broader push to reduce legal immigration to the United States, which could result in net negative immigration in 2025. This has prompted economists to warn of a labor supply slowdown that could hurt the country’s economic growth.

Responses to the overhaul. South African officials and some business leaders have disputed the claim that white South Africans face disproportionate and targeted violence. U.S.-South Africa relations have chilled under Trump, who has repeatedly promoted false claims of white genocide in South Africa. Democratic and Republican congressional staffers pressed Trump to consult Congress before announcing the refugee program changes, but he did not. A group of Democrats said yesterday that Trump’s changes run “contrary to the long and bipartisan tradition of offering a safe haven for reasonable numbers of closely vetted refugee applicants.”

“Finding a better political solution [on immigration] must start with understanding what drives public backlash to immigration…Until decision-makers craft more targeted immigration policy that straightforwardly focuses on how immigrants can provide economic benefits, anti-immigrant attitudes and parties will continue to gain ground.”

—the University of North Carolina’s Alexander Kustov, Foreign Affairs

How Does the U.S. Refugee System Work?

Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times

The United States has long been considered a safe haven for refugees from around the world, but Trump is working to change that, CFR editors write in this Backgrounder.

U.S.-India defense pact. After meeting with India’s defense minister in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, today, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the two countries had signed a ten-year framework on military cooperation. It was the first such meeting since the United States hiked tariffs on India to 50 percent, prompting India to delay purchasing U.S. defense equipment. Hegseth also met separately with several other counterparts, including China’s defense minister.

Carney-Xi meeting. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his meeting today with Chinese President Xi Jinping was a “turning point” in bilateral relations. He also accepted an invitation to visit China. Leaders of the two countries had not met since 2017, but Carney’s office said they agreed today to “resolve outstanding trade issues and irritants.” Carney has said he seeks to improve ties with Asian trade partners amid U.S. protectionism.

Trump wraps Asia trip. Trump returned yesterday from a trip to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea that saw Vietnam pledge to increase purchases of U.S. goods and Japan and South Korea detail planned U.S. investments. Trump also signed a commitment to cooperate on rare earths with Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, and struck a trade truce with China.  He did not stay in the region for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. 

Al-Qaeda’s advance in Mali. The rebel group’s Mali faction, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen, is close to capturing Mali’s capital city of Bamako, security experts told the Wall Street Journal. The group has blocked fuel imports into the country in recent weeks as part of a pressure campaign against the military junta. On Tuesday, the U.S. embassy told Americans in the country to depart. If the al-Qaeda-connected militants succeed, it would make Mali the first country to be run by the U.S.-designated terrorist group.

Boat strike briefings. Pentagon officials told lawmakers they did not need to “positively” identify people on alleged drug boats before bombing them, only conclude they were linked to drug trafficking within three degrees of separation, Representative Sara Jacobs (D-CA) said after an intelligence briefing yesterday. Jacobs and others have argued the strikes appear to be illegal, an allegation the Trump administration has disputed. Both Democrats and Republicans have sought more details on the strikes.

Mexico’s slowdown. The country’s economy shrank in the third quarter of 2025, its first year-on-year quarterly decline since the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Industrial activity in the country has been slowing as firms navigate the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. 

Tanzania’s protests. Credible reports suggest at least ten people were killed in Tanzania during post-election protests, the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights said today. It also reported widespread internet restrictions and noted a nationwide curfew had been implemented. Protests erupted after the two main opposition parties were blocked from participating in Wednesday’s general election. The government deployed the military to quell the demonstrations, which entered their third day today. 

Louvre heist arrests. French police arrested five additional suspects yesterday in connection to the brazen heist at the Louvre museum earlier this month, a prosecutor said. They relied in part on DNA to identify the suspects, and the new detentions brought the total number arrested up to seven. None of France’s stolen royal jewels have yet been recovered.

Will Trump’s Nuclear Testing Order Prompt a Global Race?

U.S. Navy

Trump’s plan to resume nuclear testing has stirred questions about the type of testing and whether the United States has entered a new era of nuclear competition with China and Russia, Senior Fellow Erin D. Dumbacher writes in this Expert Brief.

• Today, the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation begin a meeting in South Korea.

• Sunday, the Beijing, Brussels, and New York City marathons take place. 

• Sunday, Daylight Savings Time ends in the United States. 

Trump and Xi Turn Back the Clock

Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

The much-anticipated Trump-Xi meeting produced modest results, revealed China’s growing strengths, and could set the stage for a more substantive Trump visit to Beijing, CFR expert David Sacks writes for Asia Unbound.

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