This district had the tightest House margin in Arizona in 2024.
GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
In this edition of our Most-Flippable Districts series, we’re taking a look at what Roll Call reports is the second-most evenly divided congressional district in the country: Arizona’s 6th.
This district had the tightest House margin in Arizona in 2024, and since then, things have only gotten worse for the Republican incumbent, Juan Ciscomani, who has voted with Trump 100% of the time this year.
While he's voting with Trump in Congress, he’s selling the opposite message to his constituents. Ciscomani signed a letter urging House Republican leaders not to mandate cuts to Medicaid, yet voted for a budget resolution that instructs $880 billion in cuts to the program over the next 10 years. This would affect 130,000 Medicaid recipients who live in the district.
On top of that, he visited a food bank in his district to praise the work they’re doing—after voting for the largest cuts to food assistance in history. He also stayed silent while the Trump administration canceled food aid that would’ve gone to the very same food bank he visited.
Now that we’ve covered why Ciscomani is so vulnerable, here’s why his district is so winnable:
- Three major independent analysts, Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have all rated this district a “Toss Up.”
- It’s one of seven districts in the country with an even Partisan Voting Index—meaning the electorate here votes almost identically to the electorate nationwide. In a strong year for Democrats, this district is ripe to flip.
- A recent poll shows Ciscomani trailing a potential Democratic opponent by one point, and his favorability rating is underwater at 32% favorable to 49% unfavorable. Plus, 46% of his constituents say he isn’t doing his job to reopen the government and end the shutdown, compared to just 29% who said he is.
But although this district is a prime pick up opportunity, we can’t take it for granted. The Arizona primary isn’t until August 2026, which means the eventual Democratic nominee will have just three months to take Ciscomani on in the general election.
That’s why Swing Left is helping fundraise for each of the 22 House districts we’re targeting in the midterms, including Arizona’s 6th.
If you want to help us flip districts like Arizona’s 6th, will you make a donation of $25, or whatever feels right, split between Swing Left and all 22 of our target House districts today?
Donate $25 Now
For Democratic-held seats, funds go directly to their campaigns now, giving Democratic incumbents a head start before Republicans even have a nominee.
And for Republican-held seats like Arizona’s 6th, your donations will be held securely until after the primary election. Then, those funds are immediately released, giving the Democratic nominee a much-needed cash infusion to hit the ground running and take on their Republican opponent.
In addition to supporting Democrats in our target districts, your donation will also support the on-the-ground organizing work Swing Left volunteers are doing across the country right now.
Together, we can flip this district and the House in 2026, and put a real legislative check on Trump’s MAGA agenda.
Thank you for everything you do, and make sure to stay tuned for more updates.
Tomás Kloosterman
National Political Director, Swing Left
