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Prop. 50’s Dem Gerrymander Creates Intraparty Battle
With Proposition 50 likely to pass, a safe Republican district spanning Riverside and Orange Counties is about to become the stage for a high-stakes battle between Ken Calvert, Young Kim, possibly Darrell Issa, and maybe someone even further to their right.
Should it pass, federal lawsuits will follow immediately. Look for Republicans to devise every possible angle to try to sink this in federal court. Frankly, there are some outstanding arguments to be made. However, unless a court intervenes quickly to block the new districts, they will be used in the 2026 elections. These lines do exactly what Sacramento Democrats designed them to do: they blow up five Republican held seats. But that’s not all. The new lines place two GOP incumbents into a newly drawn red district, and a chunk of voters represented by a third Republican member.
A Republican Collision Course in the New CD 40
The newly configured 40th Congressional District would extend from western Riverside County to eastern Orange County, constituting a reliably Republican stronghold based on voter registration data and historical election patterns. But it combines voters from three different existing GOP districts: Ken Calvert’s CA-41 (covering just over half the population), Young Kim’s CA-40 (about a third), and Darrell Issa’s CA-48 (roughly fifteen percent). Below is a chart illustrating this, along with a map showing the actual district and its division. As well as a map showing the actual division.
Calvert and Kim both reside within these new boundaries (if you look closely you can see little flags at their residences - Calvert is barely inside of the line), and I would presume they will seek election there. Although Issa does not live in the district the Constitution only requires that you live in the same state as the district you run for, not that you have actual residency within it. All three have millions of dollars available through campaign accounts. One of the three, Issa, has vast personal wealth, having achieved success in business before entering public office. They each begin with name recognition and donor bases in their portion of the district, which gives them an immediate foothold in the coming fight.
Calvert vs. Kim: Two Republicans, One Safe Seat
Since 1993, Ken Calvert has served in Congress, holding seniority as the dean of California’s Republican delegation. As chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee—one of the influential ‘Cardinals’ overseeing military expenditures—he wields considerable authority over all spending. A powerful post from which to “bring home the bacon” for Riverside County, and of course to raise campaign funds. He has survived difficult elections and built deep familiarity among Republican voters, especially in the Inland Empire.
But Calvert also faces vulnerabilities. He has been dogged by accusations related to earmarks, land deals, and personal investments that critics have labeled as insider financial behavior. After more than three decades in Washington, some conservatives see him as the embodiment of the old GOP establishment. In his last very close re-election his Democratic opponent hit him hard on some of these things.
Young Kim, a Korean American immigrant and former state legislator, is very popular in her district. She is a prolific fundraiser who consistently raises many millions of dollars. She is a relentless campaigner with a top-notch political operation.
But in what is effectively a GOP primary in one of the most conservative parts of the country, she faces vulnerabilities. She emphasizes civility and bipartisanship through the Problem Solvers Caucus, opposed cuts to Obamacare subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill, and supports the Dignity Act, which grants legal status to many illegal immigrants.
Her most serious liability in today’s GOP is co-authoring a 2021 resolution condemning President Trump rather than voting for impeachment. Her Korean American identity helped her win initially in a district with many Asian voters, but after redistricting she won in a seat with fewer — and her new district has even fewer. It is also one of the most conservative in California, so she must defend her moderate tone and voting record.
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Uncertainty Created by the Top-Two System
California employs a top-two primary system, wherein all candidates—regardless of affiliation, whether Republican, Democrat, or independent—compete on a unified March ballot, with only the two leading vote getters advancing to the November election. In a district as heavily Republican as the new CA 40 would be (R+9), this creates a unique dynamic.
Should a single Democrat enter the race, they might unify Democratic and left-leaning independent voters to secure first place, while Calvert, Kim, and possibly Issa fragment the Republican vote among themselves. But if two or three Democrats enter, they will divide an already small pool of Democratic votes among themselves, making it far more likely that two Republicans finish at the top and advance to November. That would mean Calvert and Kim — or Issa if he jumps in — might face each other twice, once in March and again in November. The March primary electorate is older, more conservative, and more ideological. The November runoff, if it becomes a Republican vs. Republican contest, could attract more independents, lower-turnout Republicans, and, of course, while there will be an under-vote, many Democrats will cast a ballot for one of the Republicans on their ballot. This system rewards organization, name ID, and money — and punishes missteps.
The Issa Factor
Darrell Issa’s presence looms over this potential race. Under the Prop. 50 map, his current district becomes significantly more Democratic. Staying put means a challenging and expensive general election contest. Jumping into CA 40 means running in one of the safest Republican seats in the state—if he can survive the primary and potentially intra-party general election. Issa already represents about fifteen percent of the voters who are being drawn into the new district. No doubt he has high name recognition in that overlap, and he has garnered a lot of earned media (especially during his tenure as Chairman of the House Oversight Committee). He remains one of the wealthiest members of Congress. He could self-fund a campaign instantly. If he enters this race, Calvert and Kim would be forced to divide their resources three ways. And if Issa pushes one of them into a runoff, he could face a weakened opponent in November who already spent heavily to make the top two.
Melissa Melendez: The “X” Factor - A Potential Candidate?
Until now, this has been a battle among establishment Republicans. Calvert is the appropriator and institutional heavyweight. Kim is the suburban pragmatist. Issa is a successful businessman and former Army Captain.. But there is one potential candidate who could upend the race: former State Senator Melissa Melendez.
Melendez represented the Riverside County territory of this district in the State Legislature through 2022, and is viewed favorably by grassroots conservatives. She is straightforward, assertive, and not part of the congressional establishment. She has also been aligned with the Club for Growth, which will be eying an opportunity to elect a strong conservative in what would be a safe seat through at least 2032.
In 2023, Melendez assumed a state-level leadership role at the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a prominent organization aligned with Donald Trump’s policy sphere and connected to numerous former administration figures, including John Ratcliffe, Kevin Hassett, Linda McMahon, Kash Patel, Scott Turner, Pam Bondi, Brooke Rollins, Doug Collins, and Lee Zeldin.
So, Does It Matter?
This contest carries weight because it is nearly inevitable. With Proposition 50 poised to pass, the new district boundaries will take effect for 2026 unless swiftly blocked by judicial intervention, ensuring CA 40’s presence on the ballot. And unless only one Republican runs for it, voters in western Riverside and eastern Orange Counties will be asked to choose between two GOP candidates.
It matters because CA 40 is the only district created by this map that forces Republicans into direct conflict with each other. Elsewhere, the few remaining Republicans are either safe or being drawn into districts that heavily favor Democrats. Here, the opposite is true—Republicans are boxed in together. Yes, someone may step aside.
Ken Calvert could retire after decades in Congress, though those who know him well tell me he’s not one to walk away from a fight, and he has one more term available to him as the top appropriator overseeing defense spending. Young Kim could try her chances in the neighboring Orange County district now represented by Congressman Derek Tran, but that would be a tougher seat requiring massive national investment that is not guaranteed. Issa could stay where he is, accept a bluer district, and gamble he can hold it.
Whoever wins this race will likely hold the seat for years. And in a state where Republicans have so few congressional strongholds left, the decision made by the voters of CA 40 will determine not just who represents them, but what kind of Republican voice California sends from this seat to Washington.

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