AEI This Week

AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most

A NEW ERA OF GEOPOLITICS

The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers

October 25, 2025

The 20th century was defined by global conflict driven by the rise and fall of great powers such as Britain, France, Germany, and the Soviet Union, in time supplanted by the United States and now China. In a new essay for Foreign Affairs, Michael Beckley analyzes how this historical pattern is breaking down in the 21st century as demographic and economic stagnation slow the pace of geopolitical change, generating novel challenges and opportunities nations must navigate.

President Trump’s reorientation of American foreign policy, largely via the expansive, unilateral exercise of presidential authority, has raised political and legal controversy—particularly when it comes to tariffs. On November 5, the Supreme Court will hear challenges to the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In a just-submitted amicus curiae brief to the court signed by more than 40 leading economists, AEI’s economics scholars, including Stan Veuger and Michael R. Strain, demonstrate the legal flaws with the president’s interpretation of the act and respond to arguments raised in the appellate opinions.

The president’s deployment of the military within the domestic US has also generated litigation, leading him to consider invoking the Insurrection Act to strengthen his hand. Writing in The New York Times, Jack Landman Goldsmith and Bob Bauer describe the sweeping powers the statute provides—and highlight the need to reform it.

Since the murder of Charlie Kirk, the executive branch has launched investigations into links between progressive philanthropy and political violence. While any lawbreakers should be held accountable, Daniel Stid highlights the broader danger of using political power to threaten the philanthropic freedom that benefits both left and right.

During and after the pandemic, chronic absenteeism at America’s schools surged—a trend that has only partially receded in the years since. In a new AEI report, Nat Malkus, the nation’s leading expert on this issue, and coauthors use day-to-day student attendance data from Rhode Island and Indiana to reveal how student attendance patterns have changed before and after COVID.

Childcare Regulation and Affordability

In recent decades, childcare costs have outpaced family incomes and put pressure on family budgets. Policymakers generally respond by increasing government subsidies, but in a new Perspectives on Opportunity report, Vanessa Brown Calder explores the more fundamental problem that response misses: overregulation. Both degree requirements for day care teachers and restrictive child-staff ratios are associated with reduced access and increased cost. For example, in states that require an associate degree for day care teachers, the average annual cost of infant care is $20,303, while in states with no education requirement, the average cost is $11,021. Calder’s research shows that if we want to address this crisis, subsidies are ultimately ineffective—policymakers must reform fundamental barriers to care.