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Week of October 20, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed on October 19 that his team had received calls from the Iranians, which he framed as part of a pursuit of a “long-term diplomatic solution with Iran.” Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, acknowledged that mediated contacts had occurred but dismissed speculation about imminent negotiations. “As long as excessive demands exist,” he said, “there will be no basis for understanding.” Egypt has reportedly taken a leading role in facilitating these indirect talks, signaling that both sides are maintaining diplomatic ties without formal negotiations.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is open to dialogue only if it is conducted under mutual respect and free from external pressure. He criticized President Trump’s calls for talks as contradictory and insincere.
Comments from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi also touched a nerve in Iran. Grossi asserted that Iran’s key nuclear sites at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow suffered severe damage during the U.S.–Israeli bombardment earlier this year, but noted that Iran’s enriched uranium survived the attack and is likely stored in the damaged facilities. Grossi stated that while there is no evidence of active weaponization, he stated that Iran must allow full access to inspectors to ensure transparency. He warned that if diplomacy fails, the world could again face “the use of force,” yet welcomed Tehran’s decision not to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Following Rafael Grossi’s comments that Iran’s nuclear path “has not been completely blocked,” Araghchi issued a strong response, warning that such remarks were either “motivated by misplaced concern or intended as a threat.” He added, “Those who make these threats should understand that repeating a failed experiment will lead only to another failure.” His comments underscored Iran’s anger over suggestions of renewed use of force should diplomacy fail, while reaffirming Tehran’s position that the nuclear program remains peaceful and protected under Khamenei’s religious decree prohibiting nuclear weapons.
Also this week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a forceful speech that condemned U.S. aggression and suggested the U.S. wants to impose terms on Iran. Addressing Iran’s scientific and athletic elite, Khamenei celebrated their achievements as symbols of national pride and resilience, declaring that the nation’s progress “belongs to its own youth and scientists.”
Responding to Trump’s claim that U.S. airstrikes had “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Khamenei said, “Very well, keep dreaming. Who are you to decide whether Iran should have nuclear technology?” Khamenei emphasized that Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities are entirely indigenous and can be rebuilt if needed, while denouncing the United States and Israel as partners in crimes during the Gaza war and accusing Washington of hypocrisy and terrorism.
“Trump says he is a dealmaker,” Khamenei said, but if a deal is accompanied by coercion and its outcome is predetermined, it is not a deal but rather an imposition and bullying.” While many Western observers have interpreted the remarks as a hard rejection of future negotiations, they are in line with many of Khamenei’s remarks over the years – including in March before the start of new negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Then, Khamenei stated “The insistence on the part of some bully states on negotiations is not to resolve issues, but to dominate and impose their own expectations…The Islamic Republic of Iran will definitely not accept their demands.”
The June war remains a defining event shaping the current landscape. The twelve-day conflict began with massive Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, later joined by the United States. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and a U.S. base in Qatar. Though the cease-fire announced by Trump ended open hostilities, the strikes caused extensive damage and led to Iran’s parliamentary decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. The law tied any future collaboration to sanctions relief and approval by the Supreme National Security Council. While Iran briefly permitted limited IAEA visits to non-damaged facilities, it has since halted these inspections, declaring that with sanctions restored and the Cairo understanding voided, the IAEA has “no standing” in Iran.
In this environment, even a limited de-escalation would be a major breakthrough. With enrichment activity halted not by agreement but by destruction, near-term diplomacy could focus on ensuring site safety, establishing structured IAEA inspections for damaged facilities, and verifying pre-strike stockpiles of enriched uranium. Such steps could pave the way for partial sanctions relief tied to verifiable progress. However, without political flexibility in Washington and solid evidence that the Trump administration is willing to find common ground instead of totally impose its will, the situation is likely to remain frozen—an uneasy stalemate in which each side waits for the other to move first, and risks of renewed military conflict persist.
On the evening of Friday, October 17, 2025, a seven-year-old boy named Zolfaghar Sharifi was shot and killed, and his young sister seriously wounded, when security forces opened fire on their family’s car at a checkpoint near Beyt-e Kavar village in Hoveyzeh County, Khuzestan Province. According to local accounts, the incident occurred around 9:30 p.m., when patrol officers spotted a black Peugeot 405 without license plates. The officers signaled the driver to stop, but when the vehicle continued moving, they pursued it and fired shots to halt it. After the car stopped, they discovered two children in the back seat, both injured by gunfire. The children were taken to the hospital, but the younger boy died from his wounds shortly after arrival.
Five days later, on October 22, the Khuzestan Judiciary announced the arrest of a suspect involved in the shooting and stated that the case had been referred to the prosecutor’s office. State media confirmed that the officer accused of opening fire had been detained and that an investigation was underway. The incident prompted widespread discussion across Iran about the expanding use of force at roadside checkpoints and the potential dangers such measures pose to ordinary citizens.
Since the twelve-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June 2025, the number of armed checkpoints across Iranian cities and highways has increased dramatically. Several deadly shootings have taken place in recent months as a result of officers firing at vehicles that allegedly ignored orders to stop. In one case in Hamadan, two young off-road drivers were killed, and in another in Khomein, four civilians died after shots were fired at passing cars. These repeated tragedies have intensified public concern about how and when officers are authorized to use firearms during routine inspections.
Under Iran’s Law on the Use of Firearms by Armed Forces Officers, enacted in 1994, firing at vehicles is permitted only under strictly defined conditions—such as when reliable evidence suggests that a vehicle is carrying fugitives, stolen property, contraband, or weapons, or when it is being used for a deliberate attack. The law further requires that officers at checkpoints provide clear warnings and employ visible signals such as barriers and rotating lights before resorting to live ammunition. Critics argue that these rules are often ignored in practice and that officers lack proper training and accountability.
Legal experts inside Iran have emphasized that even in periods of heightened security, the regulations governing firearm use cannot be applied as if dealing with foreign combatants. They warn that using military-style tactics against civilians undermines public trust and endangers innocent lives. The case in Hoveyzeh has thus become a focal point in a broader national debate about policing standards, proportionality of force, and respect for the rule of law.
For the family of Zolfaghar Sharifi, the loss has left deep anguish and unanswered questions. They, along with many residents of Khuzestan, demand a transparent investigation and accountability for those responsible. The killing of this seven-year-old child at a checkpoint in Hoveyzeh stands as a somber reminder of the human cost of excessive force and the urgent need to ensure that security measures protect, rather than endanger, the lives of ordinary citizens.
Ayandeh Bank, once a major private financial institution in Iran, has been dissolved and merged into Bank Melli Iran after years of mounting financial distress and regulatory intervention. On October 23, 2025 (1 Aban 1404), the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) confirmed the merger, marking one of the most significant events in the country’s modern banking history.
Ayandeh Bank was established in 2012 through the merger of Tat Bank, Salehin Credit Institution, and Ati Credit Institution. Despite expanding to over 270 branches, the bank suffered from poor capitalization, weak supervision, and risky investment practices. Its most notable and damaging venture was the Iran Mall project, a massive commercial complex in northwest Tehran valued at 335 trillion rials (around USD 5.5 billion). This investment drained Ayandeh’s resources and liquidity, as nearly all construction costs were financed by the bank. By 2025, Iran Mall had become the largest corporate debtor in Iran, owing approximately 100 trillion rials to Ayandeh Bank.
Financial reports revealed catastrophic losses: 502 trillion rials in accumulated losses—314 times the bank’s capital—plus 99 trillion rials in net losses during the first nine months of 2024, 717 trillion rials in interbank debt, and 300 trillion rials in overdrafts from the Central Bank. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio stood at −295%, far below international standards. Under Article 141 of Iran’s Commercial Code, Ayandeh was legally insolvent. Repeated managerial changes since 2020 failed to resolve the crisis, and related-party lending continued, with over 124 trillion rials in loans extended to affiliated companies in 2023 alone.
The crisis reached a climax when Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned CBI Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin that failure to act on Ayandeh’s insolvency could result in prosecution. The CBI promptly initiated dissolution and merger proceedings with Bank Melli Iran. The move reportedly surprised Ayandeh’s executives, as its CEO had just published a letter on the CODAL disclosure system proposing a capital increase, claiming he was unaware of the merger. The judiciary quickly endorsed the CBI’s decision.
Following the official decree, all Ayandeh Bank branches were rebranded under Bank Melli’s name. All deposits, loans, and reserves were transferred, and the Deposit Insurance Fund guaranteed customers’ rights in full. Banking services continued without interruption, ensuring depositors retained full access to their funds. Bank Melli, the nation’s largest and most trusted state-owned bank, was selected specifically to protect public confidence and absorb Ayandeh’s estimated 300 trillion rials in deposits. Although Bank Melli itself carries financial challenges—with 95 trillion rials in capital and 70 trillion rials in accumulated losses—the CBI maintains that the merger will strengthen systemic stability.
Economists view Ayandeh’s collapse as evidence of deeper structural weaknesses in Iran’s financial system—political interference, insufficient regulatory independence, and misuse of depositors’ funds for speculative projects. Experts warn that without serious banking reforms and greater transparency, similar crises could recur. The merger continues a long pattern of state-led consolidations, from the post-1979 nationalizations to the 2019–2022 merger of military-affiliated banks into Bank Sepah. While such actions preserve short-term stability, they often transfer private losses to the public sector.
The downfall of Ayandeh Bank stands as both a warning and a turning point. It demonstrates how poor governance, related-party lending, and regulatory weakness can bring even a large private bank to collapse. The merger with Bank Melli Iran has prevented panic and protected depositors, but it adds pressure to the state banking system. Its success will depend on the government’s commitment to financial reform, transparency, and independent oversight. The end of Ayandeh Bank is thus a defining moment for Iran’s banking sector—a decisive yet necessary step to preserve financial stability and potentially restore public trust.
Iranian judicial authorities have confirmed the execution of an unnamed individual in Qom on Saturday, 26 Mehr 1404 (October 19, 2025) on charges of espionage for Israel. The person was convicted of being both “a combatant against God” (mohareb) and “corrupt on Earth” (mofsed-fel-arz) — two of the most serious capital offenses under Iran’s Islamic Penal Code.
According to Mizan, the official news agency of the Iranian judiciary, Kazem Mousavi, the head of the Qom Provincial Justice Department and Judiciary Council, announced that the death sentence had been upheld by the Supreme Court, and that the request for clemency was rejected before the execution was carried out at Qom Prison early Saturday morning.
Mousavi stated that the individual began cooperating with Israeli intelligence services in Mehr 1402 (October 2023) and was arrested in Bahman of the same year (February 2024). He said the defendant had “confessed to sending information to Israeli intelligence websites” and to maintaining contact with Mossad operatives. However, the judiciary did not release the name, age, or any identifying information of the executed person — a notable omission that has drawn significant attention and sparked concerns about transparency and due process.
Iranian media confirmed that officials described the convict as a spy for Israel’s Mossad, stating that the sentence was implemented after Supreme Court confirmation. The official charges cited were “intelligence cooperation with the Zionist regime,” and the individual was found guilty of both “enmity against God” and “corruption on Earth.” This execution marks another in a series of espionage-related death sentences that Iran has carried out in recent months following the June war and reported Israeli covert operations on Iranian soil.
The judiciary emphasized that the case was processed “in accordance with due legal procedure” and that the defendant had “freely confessed.” However, Iranian analysts and legal observers have questioned the credibility of such confessions, noting that in many security-related cases, coercion and closed-door proceedings are reported, leaving serious doubts about the fairness of the trial.
From the perspective of Iranian officials, the public announcement of the execution serves both a deterrent and symbolic purpose, signaling firmness against alleged espionage networks linked to Israel. It also coincides with heightened internal security measures and ongoing Israeli-Iranian confrontation following recent assassinations and intelligence operations.
Critics, however, view the case as part of a broader pattern of judicial opacity and political messaging, in which espionage accusations are used to project control and demonstrate state power. The absence of the suspect’s name and the lack of any independent verification have deepened concerns about transparency, accountability, and fairness.
The complete anonymity of the executed individual — with no name, initials, background, or images released — has been widely interpreted as a clear indicator of procedural opacity. In cases involving national-security or espionage charges, such concealment of identity prevents independent verification of evidence, the nature of the charges, the conditions of interrogation and detention or whether the defendant had access to legal counsel. The absence of a name effectively erases the accused from the public record, raising serious questions about whether a fair and transparent trial could have been held and whether the defendant’s fundamental rights were respected.
The Qom execution underscores both the severity of Iran’s legal penalties for espionage and the politicized environment in which such cases are adjudicated. Under Iran’s criminal code, convictions for spying on behalf of a hostile state can result in the death penalty if deemed to “endanger national security” or constitute “corruption on Earth.” Yet, when the state withholds even the most basic identifying information about the condemned, it effectively eliminates all avenues for oversight, defense, and accountability — leaving the public with an official verdict, but no verifiable truth.
The circulation of an April 2024 video showing the wedding celebration of the daughter of Ali Shamkhani, a senior Iranian official and former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has provoked widespread reaction in Iran. Critics condemned the event, held in one of Tehran’s most luxurious hotels, as an extravagant celebration revealing the contrast between the country’s struggling population and its ruling elite. Officials and supporters of Mr. Shamkhani argued that the release of the footage, more than a year after the event, had political motives.
Ali Shamkhani is one of the Islamic Republic’s most influential figures, having served as Minister of Defense, commander in both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular Navy, and later as the head of the Supreme National Security Council for a decade. He currently sits on the Expediency Council, advises the Supreme Leader, and represents Ayatollah Khamenei in the Defense Council. The wedding of his daughter, held in Farvardin 1403 (April 2024) at the Espinas Palace Hotel, reportedly cost around one billion and four hundred million tomans, according to Iranian outlets such as Arman Melli and Faraz. This amount—roughly equivalent to the earnings of an average Iranian worker over many years—immediately drew public scrutiny when details became public.
A short video circulated online showing Mr. Shamkhani escorting his daughter down the aisle, with his daughter’s hair and shoulders largely uncovered while wearing a white wedding dress. Many of the women attending wore loose or minimal hijab, which critics say is at odds with the government’s efforts to strictly enforce veiling laws. Officials close to the family, however, say the footage came from the women’s section of the celebration, where clothing restrictions would not be in force given the separation of male and female guests.
Supporters of Mr. Shamkhani insisted the leak was politically motivated. Some claimed that factions inside the regime were using private footage to undermine him after his recent return to prominence. Mahdieh Shademani, daughter of a slain IRGC commander, called the affair a “Mossad project,” arguing that after failing to assassinate Shamkhani physically during the June war, when he was wounded and rumored to have been killed, his enemies sought to assassinate his character. The Basij-linked Student News Agency acknowledged that broadcasting the video breached privacy but still demanded that Mr. Shamkhani respond publicly. Political activist Saeed Shariati observed that the former national-security chief had little ground for complaint in a system that routinely leaks private videos and coerced confessions, writing that Shamkhani was complicit in the very apparatus now targeting him.
Ezzatollah Zarghami, the former Minister of Cultural Heritage, commented on the issue, writing: “The gathering was a private and completely women-only ceremony. The bride’s father, following his tribal custom, while keeping his head down, placed his daughter’s hand in that of the groom.”
Mehdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, described it as a form of “yellow assassination” of government officials.“The yellow assassination of state officials, especially those who serve as the country’s main pillars in the fight against Israel, is an essential part of the current war. If we look closely, it also provides a shortcut to identifying the networks surrounding the regime.”
Shamkhani himself responded for the first time to the controversy surrounding the viral video of his daughter’s wedding ceremony. Speaking on the sidelines of General Afshar’s memorial service, he told a Fars News Agency reporter:“My response to the recent uproar is the same as before: bastards, I’m still alive.”
The controversy revived long-standing questions about the extraordinary wealth of the Shamkhani family. His sons, particularly Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, are major players in Iran’s oil and shipping sectors through a conglomerate known as Admiral Shipping Company, established in 2011. In August 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani and the company, describing it as a complex network of front firms moving Iranian and Russian oil and military equipment, with profits estimated in the tens of billions of dollars annually. The elder Shamkhani himself had already been blacklisted in 2020, and in 2022 Indian authorities seized an Admiral tanker carrying Iranian exports. These revelations reinforced public perceptions that the country’s ruling class lives by a different set of rules, enriching itself while ordinary people bear the brunt of sanctions.
The episode coincides with Mr. Shamkhani’s renewed visibility after Israel’s large-scale attack on Iran earlier in 2025, during which he was reportedly injured at his luxury home in Tehran’s affluent Pasdaran district. After recovering, he was reappointed by Ayatollah Khamenei to the Defense Council, marking his return to political prominence. For many observers, the wedding video became both a symbol of that comeback and a reminder of the wide gap between the lives of the Islamic Republic’s leaders and its citizens.
In a country grappling with inflation, unemployment, and repression, the video struck a chord. The image of the daughter of the Supreme Leader’s own representative celebrating in Western fashion without strict hijab, while thousands of women face prosecution for defying the government’s dress code, stoked a sense of injustice for many. Whether or not the leak was engineered by political rivals, it contributes to the view that the Islamic Republic’s elite enjoy impunity and privilege incompatible with the values they enforce on others. The wedding of Ali Shamkhani’s daughter thus became far more than a private family celebration. For many, it was seen as a reflection of Iran’s internal contradictions—between public morality and private indulgence, between proclaimed austerity and visible wealth, and between a state that demands sacrifice and officials who appear to live above the rules.
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