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Dear John,

Yesterday’s Senedd by-election in Caerphilly was historic. Yet another glaring sign that politics-as-usual is over and done with.

Plaid Cymru soared to victory on nearly half the vote, Reform UK underperformed based on expectations (but still came in at a significant 36%), and Labour received a dismal 11% of the vote – in a seat they’ve held for the past century.

In 2021, Labour and the Conservatives together received 63% of the vote in Caerphilly. In 2025, it was just 13%.
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Despite a massive electronic billboard in Caerphilly declaring that “only Labour can stop Reform,” voters overwhelmingly threw their support behind Plaid Cymru. Although many framed the contest as a two-way battle between Labour and Reform – a potential preview of the next General Election – the public rejected both the government’s message and Reform’s toxic politics.

Reform have been humbled. Farage doubled down on this by election, spending liberally to spread his xenophobic message, attempting to bring out disengaged voters fed up with Starmer. Reform reportedly had a celebration planned, but in the end, candidate Llyr Powell declined interviews and refused to even give a concession speech.

With a record turnout of over 50%, this was no protest vote. Once again, the declining confidence in Government and the traditional two-party system is on full display. Caerphilly showed us that while Farage benefits tremendously from distrust, voters can unify together to reject his noxious politics – and it doesn’t have to be behind Labour.

But in seats without a strong regional party like Plaid, results like this will be hard to replicate. Under First-Past-The-Post (FPTP), it’s more likely that Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems will split the vote and pave the way for a narrow (and disproportional) Reform victory. With Labour’s record unpopularity, it’s unlikely that tactical voting will be enough.

Across Britain, five parties now poll in double digits. In Wales and Scotland, Plaid and the SNP are seeing massive resurgence (which is almost always an inverse trend of confidence in Westminster). Our politics has outgrown the system designed to contain it, but the system hasn’t changed.
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Farage knows his only path forward is under FPTP. It’s the only way he can split the opposition and turn minority support into outsized wins.

In 2026, Senedd elections will move to a proportional system. Westminster must follow. Britain can’t function as a multi-party democracy trapped in a two-party voting system.

That’s why we’re working with our allies in Parliament through the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Fair Elections to fix this. We need a National Commission on Electoral Reform to finally deliver a fair, proportional voting system that reflects Britain today.

Because the next political earthquake won’t only shake Wales, it could bring the whole structure down.
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Change doesn’t come easily, but it starts when people refuse to look away.

Thanks for your support!

Cheers,

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer

Open Britain
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